General election: Does Labour risk defeat in these seven seats won in 2019?

If the polls are to be believed, Labour will romp home to general election victory with a landslide on a scale not seen for many years.

However, Labour continues to warn against complacency and argue for fighting for every vote with most ballots not yet cast. Even if Labour were to make sizeable gains and retake Hartlepool, where it suffered bruising by-election defeat in 2021, polls suggest some constituencies won by Labour in 2019 could still be on a knife-edge and a final polling day push could make the difference – or still see defeat.

For an incoming government, such a situation is rare. The 1997 Labour landslide saw the party lose no seats to other parties, while the Conservatives lost only three seats in 2010. Going further back, Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives lost only one seat in their 1979 election victory – Glasgow Cathcart (now Glasgow South), which fell to Labour.

READ MORE: 24 for ’24: Key general election seat results you need to watch – and when

From Bristol Central to Barnsley South, here is a closer look at some of the seats Labour won in 2019 but is seemingly at risk of falling short in on Thursday, according to election forecasters.

Bristol Central

Labour candidate: Thangam Debbonaire

Rival: Carla Denyer, Green Party

Boundary changes and recent polling suggest the most at-risk seat on the night could be Bristol Central, currently held by Shadow Culture Secretary Thangam Debbonaire.

The constituency, formerly Bristol West, has been a Green target for several elections now, but boundary changes and recent local election gains make such a scenario more of a possibility.

READ MORE: Inside Labour’s Bristol battle to counter an insurgent Green Party

Green activists have suggested the race is a “toss-up”, with a constituency poll published earlier this week giving co-leader Carla Denyer a nine point lead over Labour.

However, the Greens would need to overturn a substantial Labour majority in order to win – not an easy task, especially with Debbonaire campaigning hard to secure her place in a Labour government.

Rochdale

Labour candidate: Paul Waugh

Rival: George Galloway, Workers Party

Rochdale was a safe Labour seat at the last general election, but was lost heavily by the party at a by-election earlier this year by George Galloway in a campaign dominated by the conflict in Gaza – and one in which Labour ditched its candidate mid-campaign.

Electoral Calculus currently forecasts that the serial by-election fighter and former Labour MP, now leading the Workers Party of Great Britain, will narrowly defeat Labour candidate and political journalist Paul Waugh by roughly three percentage points – showing there’s everything to play for on polling day.

Islington North

Labour candidate: Praful Nargund

Rival: Jeremy Corbyn, Independent

Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who has served as the MP for Islington North since 1983, is standing as an independent against his former party after being suspended and later expelled after claiming the scale of antisemitism under his leadership was overstated for political reasons.

The selection of a new Labour candidate in Islington North divided the Constituency Labour Party, with several officers quitting the party to campaign for Corbyn.

It is widely expected that there will be a close race in the constituency, with Electoral Calculus forecasting a Corbyn re-election by less than one percent.

However, a recent constituency poll put Corbyn in a distant second with 29 percent, compared to Labour’s 43 percent. YouGov’s MRP forecasts a close race, but a Labour victory with 41 percent, with Corbyn on 36 percent.

Sheffield Hallam

Labour candidate: Olivia Blake

Rival: Shaffaq Mohammed, Liberal Democrats

Won by Labour for the first time in its history in 2017, and held by the party by just over 700 votes at the last election, the Liberal Democrats are campaigning hard to win back the former seat of Nick Clegg.

While Electoral Calculus gives Shaffaq Mohammed only a 25 percent chance of defeating incumbent Labour MP Olivia Blake, the latest We Think MRP had the Liberal Democrats ahead by five points in the constituency.

READ MORE: Can Labour’s Olivia Blake hold on in Nick Clegg’s old seat?

Barnsley South

Labour candidate: Stephanie Peacock

Rival: David White, Reform UK

Reform UK needs a 6.3 percent swing to flip this new constituency from Labour into their column – the party would have won 29.2% to Labour’s 41.8% in 2019.

With the Conservative vote set for collapse, it is not out of the question that the constituency could be a Labour loss on election night.

While all MRPs currently forecast a comfortable Labour win, Electoral Calculus predicts Reform UK to win by almost 11 points.

Washington and Gateshead South

Labour candidate: Sharon Hodgson

Rival: Paul Donaghy, Reform UK

Another Labour loss to Reform within the realms of possibility is in the new constituency of Washington and Gateshead South in County Durham.

At the 2019 general election, Labour had a roughly nine-point lead over the Conservatives in the constituency and, with the expected collapse in the Conservative vote, Labour is forecast by many MRPs to win between 45 and 50 percent of the vote.

However, Electoral Calculus’ forecast currently predicts Reform UK will come a very close second – with Labour on 42 percent and Reform UK on 37 percent.

Birmingham Ladywood

Labour candidate: Shabana Mahmood

Rival: Akhmed Yakoob, Independent

Based on new boundaries, Birmingham Ladywood should be one of the safest Labour seats in the country.

However, the candidacy of Akhmed Yakoob – who stood as an independent for the West Midlands mayoralty – means Labour’s huge majority is less safe than it might look.

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Yakoob, a lawyer by trade, has centred his campaign on the issue of Gaza in the seat, which has a substantial Muslim population.

It is an example of one of more than a dozen Labour-held seats with a significant number of Muslim voters that LabourList recently revealed the party’s website described as  “battleground areas“. Local activists were told to stay put and campaign locally amid apparent fears of bleeding support over Gaza, despite some of the seats’ huge majorities.

However, Yakoob’s support for Andrew Tate has drawn criticism from some in the run-up to election day.

Although a few weeks’ ago, Electoral Calculus forecast Mahmood’s majority to be cut to just six points, the website now predicts a comfortable Labour victory. Forecasters predict Yakoob to get anywhere between 15 percent and almost 30 percent of the vote.

Read more of our 2024 general election coverage:

North East Somerset and Hanham: Can Labour mayor Dan Norris consign Jacob Rees-Mogg to history?

Finchley and Golders Green: Can Labour win back Britain’s most Jewish seat?

Small boats and Tory mutineers: Can veteran Mike Tapp win Dover and Deal?

East Thanet: Inside the battle for coastal ex-UKIP stronghold not won since 2005

Sheffield Hallam: ‘Can Labour’s Olivia Blake hold on in Nick Clegg’s old seat?’

Battle of the bar charts in Wimbledon: Inside a rare election three-horse race

Could Labour take ‘non-battleground’ Tory seats across the South West?

Meet NHS doctor Zubir Ahmed, fighting one of Scotland’s tightest marginals

Brighton Pavilion: As Starmer visits, can Labour win the Greens’ one seat?

Labour wants a new generation of new towns. Can it win in Milton Keynes?

Meet Gordon McKee, the 29-year-old son of a welder vying for Glasgow South

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