‘Reform, Greens, independents. How Labour wins voters it lost out on in 2024’

The electoral landscape of Britain has been set for the next five years, ushering in a historic Labour majority. The vote share this majority is built on is one of the lowest in history, but this should not worry Labour’s top brass. Provided they deliver a boring and competent government, a second term could be within reach.

To understand why, the complexities of this new political era demand a more nuanced analysis. The rise of Reform UK may worry the new Prime Minister, but the underlying causes of their emergence need to be thoroughly understood if Labour is to consolidate its position and expand its support base.

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Reform’s rise signals a significant undercurrent of dissatisfaction among the electorate. This isn’t merely about a fringe party gaining traction. It is indicative of deeper, systemic failures that voters have faced for more than a decade. 

Issues such as immigration, Brexit, economic growth and an ever-rising tax burden have eroded trust in the traditional parties. It is hard to ignore the idea that at least part of Reform’s rise is due to voters’ protests against a system that has failed them time and time again.

Labour can win back voters lost to Reform

It would be easy to attribute Reform UK’s rise entirely to anti-system sentiment. Polling data reveals that around 40% of Reform UK voters would choose the Conservative Party if Reform UK did not stand in their constituency. This indicates a substantial segment of Reform’s vote comes from those disillusioned with the Conservatives but not completely alienated from them. For the Tories, this represents a potential reservoir of support that could be reclaimed.

However, this leaves 60% of Reform voters, around 2.5 million individuals, who are dispersed among centre-left parties and driven by a broader discontent. These voters are crucial for Labour. They are not merely floating voters. They are voters deeply disenchanted with a broken system.

Immigration is a particularly salient issue. Around 60% of these voters cited illegal immigration as a top concern for the new government.

READ MORE: Revealed: Labour gained more than 30 of its so-called ‘non-battleground’ seats

For Labour to capture this segment, a clear and effective plan addressing immigration, economic growth and public services is essential. Our research shows that as deprivation decreases in a constituency, voters were less inclined to vote for Reform UK.

This is not just about policy but about rebuilding trust in government and the institutions that comprise it. If Keir Starmer’s administration can demonstrate competence and deliver tangible improvements, they can put this group back into the Labour fold.

Labour must engage with alienated left-leaning voters

The fracturing of the vote on the left, with some voters supporting pro-Palestine independents and the Green Party, presents both a challenge and an opportunity for Labour.

The international community’s push for a ceasefire might defuse one of the critical issues that led to these defections. Hopefully, these pro-Palestinian candidates lose their distinct platform as hostilities end. Then Labour could potentially reclaim these lost votes, strengthening its parliamentary position.

READ MORE: ‘Aldershot’s had Tory MPs since 1918. Our win shows Labour can win anywhere’

Labour must also recognise the broader landscape of left-leaning voters who have strayed due to various policy grievances. Engaging with these groups, understanding their specific concerns and integrating their priorities into a coherent agenda will be crucial.

This means not only addressing immigration and economic policies but also environmental concerns and social justice issues that resonate with these progressives.

Addressing voter disillusionment must be a priority

The Conservatives will likely aim to regain lost ground by addressing the issues that motivated Reform defections, particularly around immigration and economic policy. They will need to craft a narrative that distinguishes them from both Labour and Reform UK, a slim policy space. They will need to focus on their capacity to deliver effective governance without the ideological extremes of Reform.

READ MORE: Starmer at NATO summit: ‘What will be the UK’s global role under Labour?’

The fight for these voters starts now. By delivering on the style of government Starmer has promised, he could bring trust back into politics. Labour’s next election campaign begins with the governance of today. Competence, integrity and delivery of the electorate’s needs will be the bedrock of expanding their mandate.

The political landscape is volatile, and the choices made in the coming weeks and months will shape the future of British politics for years to come. Labour must navigate these choppy waters with an unwavering commitment to addressing voter disillusionment. The fight for the next election really does start now.

Read more of our 2024 general election coverage:

North East Somerset and Hanham: Can Labour mayor Dan Norris consign Jacob Rees-Mogg to history?

Finchley and Golders Green: Can Labour win back Britain’s most Jewish seat?

Small boats and Tory mutineers: Can veteran Mike Tapp win Dover and Deal?

East Thanet: Inside the battle for coastal ex-UKIP stronghold not won since 2005

Sheffield Hallam: ‘Can Labour’s Olivia Blake hold on in Nick Clegg’s old seat?’

Battle of the bar charts in Wimbledon: Inside a rare election three-horse race

Could Labour take ‘non-battleground’ Tory seats across the South West?

Meet NHS doctor Zubir Ahmed, fighting one of Scotland’s tightest marginals

Brighton Pavilion: As Starmer visits, can Labour win the Greens’ one seat?

Labour wants a new generation of new towns. Can it win in Milton Keynes?

Meet Gordon McKee, the 29-year-old son of a welder vying for Glasgow South

Revealed: The battlegrounds attracting most activists as 17,000 sign up

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