Aldershot: Can Labour win the ‘Home of the Army’ for the first time in a century?

Labour’s candidate in the key target constituency of Aldershot has said ending more than a century of Conservative representation in the Hampshire seat would show Labour has “something to offer for everyone in our country”.

While the latest Survation MRP poll points to a first ever Labour victory – and a first ever woman as MP – in a town often called the Home of the British Army, Alex Baker said winning was “not in the bag” on the brink of polling day.

Speaking exclusively to LabourList in the final stages of the campaign, Baker said she had “no expectation” of the result. But she said the local party is working “phenomenally hard”, adding: “If we do this, it will be because of the sweat we’re going to put in in the next 13 days.”

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A YouGov MRP poll in March suggested the Tories would continue to hold the seat. LabourList analysis indicates that if Labour were purely targeting seats based on the smallest swing required to Labour from the Tories’ 2019 vote share, and the number of seats needed to secure a majority of around 30, Aldershot would not be anywhere near the list.

Winning here requires a swing of 17.3%, well in excess of the 12.7% swing needed nationally for an overall majority. Yet Labour has described it as a “key battleground”, and there is clearly a huge desire to win here.

The party has reportedly been piling resources into the area, with nine Constituency Labour Parties apparently twinned with it, according to the Financial Times. Baker told LabourList that her campaign has received an “amazing amount” of support from twinned seats, the regional party and the national party.

A subsequent YouGov poll in June indicated Aldershot was leaning towards Labour, and the latest Survation poll putting Labour 3.4 percentage points ahead will boost campaigners’ hopes.

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The seat covers the Rushmoor council area, which was gained by Labour at the local elections earlier this year – in what the party described as a “truly historic result” after 24 years of Conservative control.

Baker said Labour being “in contention” in Aldershot is “quite extraordinary” and “testament to the years of work that has gone on by the wider team”. The seat has been represented in parliament by Tory Leo Docherty since 2017, whose most recent majority was 16,698 votes.

Baker told LabourList: “Winning the local elections was a really big moment for us… That was a really important proof point, because many people in this community had always said to us: ‘Oh, well, you know, we’re happy to vote for you, but Labour can’t win around here.’ And so yeah that was a really important part of our journey.”

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Asked what issues have been coming up on the doorstep, Baker identified the cost of living, housing, the availability of NHS dentistry and funding for local schools, arguing that “the last 14 years of this Tory government has not served people well”.

“In years gone by, every door you would have knocked would have been a Conservative voter. People are much more open to change now because, ultimately, they feel let down. The trust that they are going to be looked after by a Conservative Party is gone,” she said.

Baker said demographic changes and boundary changes have “slightly helped” Labour in the seat but added: “Overall, we have got a huge amount of people that have… generations of their family will have always voted Conservative, and for the first time in a general election, they are voting Labour.”

On the symbolism of Labour winning in Aldershot, which has seen troops train locally since the 1850s, Baker said “it would mean so much”, telling LabourList that it has been a “real joy” speaking to military families across the community some of whom she said would be voting Labour for the first time.

She added: “If we can pull this off, I think it will send a message to the rest of the country… If a place like Aldershot is voting Labour, that means that Labour has something to offer for everyone in our country.”

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The Labour candidate – who lives in Farnborough in the constituency – started her working life at the Co-operative Party, before working for a number of years for the Co-operative Group. She spent the last decade working on the Battersea Power Station regeneration project, latterly as director of communities and sustainability.

She told LabourList that working for a developer was not her “first instinct” but described the role as a “huge opportunity to go and work with the incredible community across Battersea and Wandsworth and then also shape the community outreach and the social value programme”.

“My work through that decade, sort of slightly away from Westminster, but working on a significant project, has actually taught me a huge amount that I want to use to benefit the community if I am lucky enough to serve Aldershot and Farnborough as their first Labour MP,” she said.

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On the policy areas she would be excited to work on if elected, Baker highlighted childcare. She said she was “really excited” to see Labour’s offer on childcare, arguing that the approach to the sector needs to “fundamentally change”, including ensuring that the workforce “feel appreciated both in words and… remuneration”.

She also said she would campaign on local schools funding if elected, telling LabourList: “I’ve got to find a way to make the case that our schools in this community need more resources.”

A parent of a three- and a six-year-old, Baker said balancing the demands of campaigning has been a “challenge” but that her family have been “on this adventure together”, adding: “I’m doing this for my children… I’m hoping they will have some really good memories from this time.”

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