Eluned Morgan’s arrival as leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister comes at a time of a great deal of soul searching in Welsh politics.
Welsh Labour, having been in power for 25 years, recently emerging from a tumultuous period in Welsh politics, starting with a £200,000 donation from a businessman convicted of environmental dumping, then subsequent infighting, briefing wars and the most brutal of endings. An ending, following a lost no confidence vote and the resignation of four cabinet ministers, that brought down First Minister, Vaughan Gething within just four months of taking up office.
Instead of launching a leadership contest, in August the Senedd Labour Group opted for a swift transition, choosing Eluned Morgan as the new Welsh Labour Leader and First Minister.
Her rise to the top has already been defined by a steady approach thus far, opting firstly to postpone a full cabinet reshuffle until September, and instead launching a country-wide listening tour. With a 30-year political career as a member of the European Parliament, House of Lords before the Welsh Senedd, the new First Minister is not one to be pushed into making decisions. By delaying the cabinet reshuffle and slowing down the pace after the recent turmoil, Morgan has given the exhausted party some much-needed respite.
Under new management
While we await the new cabinet team and the announcement of how Eluned will ultimately lead Welsh Labour and Wales, a tricky set of Senedd elections approach in 2026. Tricky especially following the Welsh Election Study’s findings that Welsh voters are more ready than ever to split their votes based on Westminster and Welsh Parliamentary preference.
Voters who delivered an overwhelming Labour victory in the general election may switch their support, bringing Welsh Nationalists, Plaid Cymru, within reach of becoming Wales’ largest party for the first time.
The rapidity of Eluned’s elevation to the post of First Minister has not gone without criticism, even from within the Labour Party. Backbench Labour MS and former government minister, Lee Waters, criticised the decision not to have a leadership election in his blog, stating the party is failing to debate the ideas and to renew while in office after so long in power.
Indeed, the last time both governments at either end of the M4 were Labour, led to an antagonistic relationship, drifting occasionally into caustic.
Clear Red Water
Welsh Labour traditionally made up the vanguard of the Labour Party’s left wing, best perhaps encapsulated by the 2002 “Clear Red Water” speech by then First Minister, Rhodri Morgan. A speech in which he called for Welsh Labour’s divergence from Tony Blair’s more egregious breaks from the Labour Party’s left-wing traditions. A speech, for context, made in the wake of Tony Blair’s increasing marketisation of public services.
The ‘Clear Red Water’ rhetoric and policies were crafted to shore up more left-wing elements of Welsh Labour and voters, just as the UK Labour Party was undergoing radical changes to become New Labour. Even so, the term could be seen as unhelpful. This was a UK government that at the time was working to lift 500,000 children out of poverty, who may have felt it was unfairly being declared as less puritan than one of its own sister parties.
READ MORE: ‘For policy inspiration, Labour can look close to home: Wales’
This stance, however, provided crucial breathing room during some of New Labour’s more unpopular moments, particularly during devolved elections. The term ultimately came to represent a set of policies that allowed Wales to chart its own course in various public services.
Some policies from the time have proven to be extraordinarily popular and even touted as a source of national pride. Free prescriptions, introduced in 2007, have created political unanimity as to their popularity and success, with Scotland and Northern Ireland following suit in 2010 and 2011 respectively.
Distinctive policies define Welsh Socialism, free school milk, free nursery places, prescriptions for young people (now covering the whole population), museum and gallery entry, and local bus travel for pensioners and disabled people. Though perhaps when originally conceived not necessarily designed to survive much more than an election campaign, “Clear Red Water” became the ideological underpinning of 20 years of a distinctive kind of Welsh socialism.
Hitting ‘refresh’ while in office
In 2024, the term itself and the policies themselves could do with a makeover and perhaps remade into something more palatable for governments at both ends of the M4. More so as Wales presses its case for further powers and funding, especially in criminal justice devolution.
Funding remains a core issue for the new First Minister, given time when the Welsh Government could afford to introduce free prescriptions and even reduced-cost tuition fees appears to be in the rear-view mirror.
Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre warn of further cuts to the already stretched Welsh budget under the new Westminster Labour governments spending plans, estimated pre-election funding plans to create a deficit of around £683m by 2028-29.
Flood of policy ideas
The times call for fiscal restraint, but paradoxically occur when the public are in need more than ever during the cost-of-living crisis and the squeeze on incomes. On a recent episode of BBC Walescast I called for more “Low Cost, High Impact” policies that better everyday lives.
The Scottish Government have introduced a trial of all day, off-peak time train tickets, which is proving popular among commuters as the SNP government there prepares its own re-election campaign. The specific shape these policies will take is likely being carefully considered by Eluned’s new team, led by Chief of Staff and veteran former Cardiff West MP, Kevin Brennan.
The question is, could “Clear Red Water” develop into a more conciliatory term but still remain radical when it comes to public service provision and more forthrightly socialist policies?
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Could the First Minister even “lean in” on some of these existing provisions such as deepening free childcare provision, free prescriptions, university tuition or perhaps something mere commentators are yet to imagine?
It’s not just about renewing party unity and policies, but about going deeper—to rejuvenate the party’s very raison d’être. A renewal not of policy alone but of the Welsh Party’s values. It is a considerable undertaking and one that the new First Minister and her team are tasked most of all with undertaking.
As Rhodri Morgan once stamped his own, it is likely Eluned Morgan will want to stamp her own brand on this new phase of devolution. While elections in 2026 will occupy current thinking, it is with an eye on the future rather than the past, although a helpful guide, that will define the coming decades for Wales.
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