Liam Byrne: ‘Trump’s victory is a warning to Britain and Europe – fix inequality or populists will win’

In the end it was not even close. But the scale of President Trump’s emphatic re-election is not simply a shock, it is a warning to Labour and the European left. Unless we find ways to fix the yawning chasm of inequality that divides our nations, then populists everywhere will continue their onward march.

It will be a few days until we have time to inspect the details of Vice President Harris’ defeat. But there was one clear story about the last time President Trump sailed to victory. The places that were left behind by American growth, the places at the sharp end of growing inequality, were far more likely to vote for Trump.

But guess what?

The same dynamics hold true for the UK, France, and Scandinavia. Those places where the growth in wealth did nor keep pace with the national average were the places that voted for Brexit, Le Pen in France and the Far Right in Scandinavia.

READ MORE: Reactions from across the Labour Party as Trump secures his return to the White House

In a seminal piece of political science research, authors Ben Ansell and David Adler reported, “the geography of wealth inequality offers a convincing explanation for the pattern of populist vote share.”

Trump’s re-election shows these forces are not dissipating. Indeed, they may be growing stronger. And the same effect was clear at the last general election here in Britain.

In a new analysis of the election results I looked at the relative increases in aggregate wealth since 2006/08 and the Reform vote in each region at the 2024 general election. What emerged is a clear pattern; those regions where wealth grew least – the North East, the East and West Midlands – voted more heavily for Reform. Where wealth growth was largest – in the South East – the Reform vote was lowest.

The lesson from Trump’s win

This has a clear message for Labour. Bidenomics-style investment is important, but it is not enough. Investment takes a long time to yield results, but voters’ patience is short – nor are voters feeling very optimistic about the future.

In fact new research by the Policy Institute at King’s College London and the Fairness Foundation, and shared on Tuesday night in the House of Commons, showed that here in the UK, people feel the gap in wealth between rich and poor is too big; that the richest in society are now more powerful than national governments – but voters do not think this will change by the end of the parliament.

READ MORE: ‘As Trump returns to the White House, the Western centre-left will need to do some soul searching’

These sentiments are a clear warning. If we do not fix this, we too will be in peril of the sort of populist surge that took Trump back into office. And the remedy is pretty clear.

Investment in our economy to grow our economy is mission critical. But just as important is a project that connects rising prosperity to those families and places that feel they have been left behind.

It must be a project that not only raises real incomes but actually helps improve the wealth levels of voters who have simply been left behind by the surge in the wealth of the top 1%.

Read more of our Budget 2024 coverage:

• • Live updates and stream as tax and spend policy revealed
  • Labour’s Budget 2024: All the policies announced in advance
  • ‘No fiscal rule is perfect. But this one means welcome investment’
  • Fiscal rules: What is Reeves changing – and why does it matter?
  • Bus fare cap row rumbles on as Burnham sticks to £2 cap
  • Sam White: ‘Budget 2024 leaves Reeves facing nine circles of fiscal hell’
  • Budget bus fare row: ‘The £2 cap was a rare policy that dramatically improves lives – it’s so cheap people talk about it’
  • Budget 2024: National Minimum Wage set for record hike and Living Wage to rise 6.7%
  • Budget 2024: ‘How Rachel Reeves will turn the page on the Tories’ economic illiteracy’
  • ‘How Labour councils can help Starmer and Reeves deliver their growth mission’
  • Who key Budget policies are aimed at – and the electoral strategy they signal
  • ‘A proper Labour Budget’: MPs, unions and readers overjoyed at NHS and NMW cash – but some fear for public services
  • Autumn Budget 2024: Read Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ full Budget speech

• SHARE: If you have anything to share that we should be looking into or publishing about this story – or any other topic involving Labour– contact us (strictly anonymously if you wish) at [email protected]. 
• SUBSCRIBE: Sign up to LabourList’s morning email here for the best briefing on everything Labour, every weekday morning. 
• DONATE: If you value our work, please donate to become one of our supporters here and help sustain and expand our coverage.
• PARTNER: If you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on sponsored events or content, email [email protected].