German election: ‘Olaf Scholz’s fall from grace has crucial lessons for Starmer’

And now it’s official. On 23 February, Germany will go to the polls again, with elections brought forward from late September after the three party coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD) of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Greens, and the Liberal FDP, collapsed in November.

The collapse of the German government is obviously a disappointment to UK Labour. There were moments when the SPD’s (unexpected) election success in 2021 proved useful inspiration, notably in the focus on “respect” for those doing everyday jobs, for instance in the caring professions.

Scholz’s German government was a potentially pragmatic voice on the EU side in negotiations over the UK’s “reset” – even if Brits sometimes overestimate the extent to which Germans will really be willing to depart from the more orthodox EU mainstream.

While the UK and Germany signed a defence compact in October, the more ambitious treaty between the two countries is likely to end up “on ice”.

Parallels between Scholz and Starmer

There are other reasons, too, to be concerned. Scholz and Starmer have sometimes been compared – both centrist social democrats, who have sought to appear as reassuring, competent politicians who can give voters the stability for which they yearn when faced with, in different ways, fragmented and chaotic opposition.

Scholz’ fall from grace, with truly dreadful approval ratings (23% satisfied with his work according to a recent poll), cannot be considered a good omen, and certainly two of the criticisms Scholz has faced – of aloofness and indecision – would be good ones for Sir Keir Starmer to avoid.

But we shouldn’t read too many general lessons into the specific particularities of the German case.

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The coalition broke down on the basis of disagreement on fiscal policy, with profound disagreement between the SPD and Greens on the one hand, who wanted to suspend constitutional borrowing restrictions to fulfil policy obligations, and the (neo)liberal FDP, which adamantly refused, and indeed plotted to “blow up” the coalition on precisely this issue in an attempt to revive its electoral standing.

A Labour government with a huge majority rather than a wobbly, ill-aligned coalition, and without the misfortune to have ill-fitting constitutional restrictions on borrowing, is unlikely to meet the same challenge.

Yet there are some important issues for Labour to watch. One is the sense of pessimism amongst the German electorate, which could readily be replicated in the UK.

Growing volatility in the electorate

While Germans are so-so about their individual economic prospects (with a majority actually positive), they are gloomy about those of the country as a whole: 72% in a poll earlier this month thought the economy was getting worse, with just 3% sensing an improvement.

There is a fair degree of gloom about the state of public services, no more so than in the failing railway infrastructure, with just 60% of long-distance trains arriving on time.

If the electorate don’t feel that things are getting better, this can pose a real problem, and one well-illustrated in Germany.

Scholz’ leading opponent as chancellor candidate, Friedrich Merz of the centre-right CDU/CSU, scores poorly, with just 19% in one recent poll; ahead of Scholz (11%) and the Green Habeck (13%).

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However, this translates into broader dissatisfaction: the same survey saw 15% of voters favouring the far right’s Alice Weidel as chancellor, and 42% either didn’t want any of those on offer or didn’t know.

Such volatility leads to a shift away from mainstream parties, and Germany is seeing precisely this trend, with the far right AfD polling in second place on around 18%, and the anti-immigration, left populist BSW hitting around 7%.

It is not hard to imagine how discontent and a lack of visible improvement in public services might affect UK politics, with for instance both Reform and Greens ready to exploit such frustrations.

The campaign looms

The SPD is likely to go into the election with a staunchly social democratic programme, promising a higher minimum wage, major reductions in social care costs payable by those affected, pension guarantees, higher taxes on wealth and top earners, and ongoing rent restrictions.

Scholz is clearly determined to distance himself from Friedrich Merz, who is adopting staunchly conservative positions because of pressure from a party to this right (again, a phenomenon familiar in the UK).

It remains to be seen, though, whether German voters will be willing to give Scholz and the SPD another chance after a period when they were disappointed in government performance, and the early signs are far from good.

Even in a time when governing is difficult, electorates expect swift results and threaten to punish parties which fail to deliver.

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