‘Pressure Plaid, be clinical in attack and build more homes: six ways Welsh Labour can win in 2026’

Welsh Labour had a tougher 2024 than most. Wales was the only part of the United Kingdom that saw a decline in Labour’s overall vote share in the general election. A result that came about in the midst of a tumultuous period in Welsh politics that saw First Minister Vaughan Gething forced to resign and a bitterly divided party very nearly go to war with itself. For the first time in decades, Welsh Labour’s grip on its heartlands appears to be slipping, with the 2026 election the most pivotal in its history.

Fortune would have it however, that at the eleventh hour two unity candidates were found in the form of new First Minister and Welsh Labour leader, Eluned Morgan and Deputy First Minister, Huw Irranca-Davies.

The new First Minister and her Deputy are now tasked with managing the difficult picture Wales and its voters present in a high stakes game brought on by the new PR voting system. The new system will not offer much respite at all according to pollster Ben Walker. Labour, according to the data, are losing their footing in a once loyal Labour-voting part of the world.

Six ways of winning are of course suggestions, ideas and a little tongue in cheek perhaps, but point to the need for a campaign of unparalleled discipline ahead of 2026 Senedd elections. Old political certainties are no more. The modern political age is moving too fast for anything other than perfection and sure-footed approaches to countering political start up Reform UK, an increasingly opportunistic Plaid Cymru, and a moderating Welsh Tory Party.

So, without further ado, here are six ways Welsh Labour can win in 2026.

Message discipline (and simplification)

The proper litmus test for message discipline is if by the time journalists and your own backbenchers are sick to the back teeth of hearing the same line or two, then it will likely only just be cutting through with the public. Repetition is the mother of all learning, after all, even if it does put the odd backbencher to rest.

One friendly critique of the current administration is it is not always clear what the Welsh Government’s message is. At this stage in the game, it falls to the most senior politicians in government to wheel out the lines, and vision, that set the tone and narrative of the campaign.

These are outlined in Morgan’s four national priorities, but ideally activists like this writer would like some air cover with messaging that make conversations with voters simpler on the issues.

READ MORE: ‘Reform’s spectre looms over Welsh Labour. But we can stop their advance’

Pressure Plaid Cymru

There is plenty of time to make Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth uncomfortable, who has been a fortunate general thanks to events in Wales thus far this year.

According to the Wales Governance Centre’s general election study, Plaid Cymru have gained in the polls thanks to Labour switchers, seeing them as a left-wing alternative to Labour. These are in fact, according to the same study, the softest voters for Labour to win back.

The most difficult question Iorwerth needs to answer is will he form a coalition with the Conservatives? They attempted the same in 2007 and 2016, even working with UKIP on the latter occasion. With the Tories anointing a more moderate leader in the form of Darren Millar, he indicated his willingness to work with nationalists Plaid Cymru to keep Labour out of power in a recent interview.

READ MORE: Eluned Morgan on the new Senedd voting system and ‘moving on’ from Welsh Labour rifts

Would Plaid work with the Tories to put themselves in power? It is a question which has not been asked firmly enough of the Plaid leader, yet. It certainly would switch off some of their new voters, if they were to team up with such as disliked a brand as the Conservative Party in Wales. A coalition is also a clash of two opposing ideologies, one unionist, one nationalist and easily visible as opportunism rather than political principle bringing two ideological foes together.

It presents one of the biggest openings for the First Minister, as Plaid Cymru refuse to even negotiate on this year’s budget, where the government are short of a majority by one vote.

Labour can position itself as the stable, progressive option, contrasting sharply with Plaid’s perceived opportunism. While winning these voters back is not everything, they will be a key component to winning back the Senedd, many of whom carried Labour to victory in 2021 and in the general election earlier this year.

Be clinical in attack

Reform UK want to privatise the NHS. Only Labour can restore it. Plaid Cymru will put the Tories in power. Keep them out, vote Labour.

I sadly don’t have access to focus groups to test these lines that I just made up, but it is this sort of push-pull that our party need to consider with just 17 months to go. Attacks paired with a hopeful message about what Labour offers, would not go amiss: “Labour is building the homes, creating the jobs, and strengthening the public services Wales deserves”. I really should start trying these out on focus groups…

READ MORE: ‘Welsh Labour is ambitious for bread – and roses too’

Build more houses

A little of a tongue in cheek request as it is a favoured subject of this writer, but housing is a big ask of the young and the aspirational in Wales. Depopulation is also one of our country’s most pressing challenges. Around 1,000 working age adults leave the mostly rural county of Powys every year, thanks to housing affordability and availability.

Creating a system more defaulted to ‘build’ instead of ‘block’ is long overdue to ensure that first time buyers can get on the ladder, and affordably at that. Using one example, Wrexham in North Wales has seen large demographic shifts and an aging population, with 41% of residents now over 50 – whilst 27% are aged 60 or over. Housing affordability being the core issue, average house prices in Wrexham surged 27.1% between 2020 and 2023.

Wrexham Council has warned that high house prices coupled with limited housing stock contribute to a “significant challenge for first-time buyers and low-income households.” First-time buyers wanting a 90% mortgage would require deposits equivalent to 63% of median earnings.

Unless Wales can tackle sky high prices as a consequence of low housing supply, it will continue to see its younger population move elsewhere, or worse yet, judge the government for having failed them and their generation and look to the extremes.

Welsh Labour could commit to building tens of thousands of new and affordable homes by 2030, ensuring young people can stay and thrive in their communities.

Deliver policies that make a material difference to people’s lives

Piggy backing on previous point, the Welsh Government has the power to make significant material difference to people’s lives. This could include improving welfare benefits, expanding free school meals and childcare provision.

Childcare provision is currently free for parents under certain circumstances for two years in Wales. Lone Liberal Democrat Senedd Member, Jane Dodds, signalled on social media she may be willing to back the government budget if the expansion of childcare provision was on the table. A helpful sign as the Welsh Government need one vote to pass their budget.

Childcare costs are now at the stage where they are referred to as a ‘second mortgage’ by parents, lucky enough to have a mortgage. Perhaps the opportunity to make parents lives better is not only possible with the newly increased budget, but politically expedient ahead of the Senedd elections?

Labour’s material impact while in office will be the key differentiator when it comes to counterpunching Plaid, Reform UK and the Conservatives. Allowing the opposition to frame our tenure in power as a failure and failure alone, is so far proving to be the biggest stick with which to beat our party in the press and polls.

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Have vision for the next 20 years

Every party needs to be able to answer this question: where do you see Wales in 20 years?

If it is a healthier, wealthier and wiser one, then it is best to decide how best to get there. This is not necessarily a simple transaction of winning votes like the previous points, this is the ‘Why’ and ‘How’ of what direction the country should go in by the middle of the century. The vision from which important decisions flow whilst in power.

In 2015, the then Welsh Assembly published the slightly innocuously named, “Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015”, it set the precedent on which much government direction has been made ever since. An ambitious program, sadly stymied by Conservative austerity and budget cuts.

The 2026 manifesto could indeed be a renewal of these vows, long overdue, as since its passage the country has dealt with the fallout from Britain’s exit from the EU, COVID-19 pandemic, mini-budgets, economic malaise and subsequent inflation under the Conservatives.

It is time to revisit this directive and decide what sort of country Wales wants to be in 20 years.

This is a country crying out for more security from recent crises, and one in desperate need of hope for its own future. Labour being in power in Westminster and Wales needs to be seen as the answer to those anxieties.

Welsh Labour has faced tough challenges before and emerged stronger. The 2026 Senedd election will be no different. By focusing on disciplined messaging, delivering policies that transform lives, and laying out a bold vision for the future, Labour can show the people of Wales that we are not just a party of government but a movement for hope and progress.

This is a moment of decision for Wales. Do we allow the divisions of opportunistic parties to define our future, or do we choose a united, resilient Wales that leads the way in creating a greener, fairer, and more prosperous society? The answer lies in Labour’s hands and with it, the future of the country.

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