Runcorn special report: Could anger at MP and Labour risk by-election loss?

Beneath the shadow of the UK’s largest waste incinerator, a small town on the banks of the river Mersey could decide the result of Keir Starmer’s first by-election as Prime Minister.

Runcorn, an industrial town in Cheshire, was thrust into the national spotlight last October after its Labour MP, Mike Amesbury, was caught on camera assaulting one of his constituents in Frodsham.

Amesbury was suspended by the party and admitted the charge at a hearing at Chester Magistrates’ court last week, and stands to be sentenced next month. 

A by-election would be held if he were to then resign, or if he receives a custodial sentence next month. That could trigger a recall petition, with the support of 10% of eligible voters needed for a by-election to be called.

Does Reform pose a serious risk?

Home to the Viridor incinerator, which burns nearly one million tonnes of household rubbish each year, Runcorn ranks as one of the most deprived areas of the UK. It is part of the Runcorn and Helsby seat, which combines Runcorn with the neighbouring parishes of Frodsham and Helsby.

In the general election last July, Amesbury won the seat with 22,358 votes, 52.9% of the total, with Reform’s Jason Moorcroft coming in a distant second place with just 7,662 votes, or 18.1%.

However, a lot has changed since then, with Labour’s lead plummeting in national opinion polls. The party now finds itself virtually neck and neck nationally with Reform, which has emerged as the most popular right wing party for now – and seemingly a serious threat in Labour’s former industrial heartlands.

The most recent bookmakers’ odds still have Labour as favourites in the north-west seat, but only narrowly, with Reform a close second.

Overturning – or even coming close to overturning – such a large Labour majority would be a huge victory for Nigel Farage’s party, and risk sending shockwaves through the Labour party nationwide.

‘The local party hopes he can stay on as an independent MP’

Arriving on a cold and wet afternoon in Runcorn, I was met by Mike Garvey,  a councillor for Frodsham, and the Labour group secretary for Cheshire West and Chester, one of two councils with wards in the constituency.

As we drove around the town, passing Amesbury’s office, he seemed downbeat about the MP’s fall from grace.

Amesbury was a “very hardworking constituency MP” and the incident was “very out of character”, he said.

He was someone they knew they could work with, he said – adding that he would like him to stay on as an independent until the next general election.

READ MORE: Does by-election loom in Runcorn & Helsby as MP admits assault?

“I hope that he is able to remain in his post and continue as an independent MP.

“That is very much the view of the local party.”

Amesbury has not commented since his guilty plea on whether he hopes to stay on or plans to resign.

LabourList recently reported on the “strain and turbulence” felt by some members in other CLPs with MPs who have lost the whip, struggling with divided loyalties between their party and their MP.

However, as a former police detective, Garvey said he condemned any acts of violence.

He would not be drawn on who he would like to see as a potential future Labour MP for the area, saying only that he would like them to have a connection to the area.

A by-election doesn’t suit Labour, he said, adding there was a feeling now that “national politics has come into play”, citing winter fuel cuts as a particularly unpopular decision.

“Labour don’t want there to be a by-election, as Mike Amesbury is a Labour person through and through,” he added.

‘Reform are offering our country back’

Leaving me off at Runcorn’s high street, Garvey described the area’s economy as “stagnant”.

Looking around the town, it wasn’t difficult to see what he meant. Many of the shops on the high street were shut, with only the nearby Wetherspoons appearing busy.

During our conversation, Garvey told me internal party polling at the last election had shown that Reform were their main threat in Runcorn.

Indeed it wasn’t long before I found one of the rival party’s local supporters while canvassing views on the high street.

Army veteran Dave Hayes, 61, called Amesbury “a fool”, adding that he shouldn’t stay on as an independent.

“He’s a fool to himself, he’s supposed to be a pillar of the community and he punches and kicks a person, and said he was defending himself.”

Describing himself as a “conservative person”, he said he had never voted for Labour, adding that Reform was offering “our country back”.

“I’m not racist, I’ve got black cousins, I’ve got friends who are Muslims – and even they say ‘we don’t want anymore people in’.

“They’re not white, and they’re saying the same.”

‘Runcorn has always been Labour… but Reform are really going to go for it’

Hayes offered to take me for a pint, but I continued onto the river, where I met Debra Conlon, 38.

She was picking up empty beer cans along the river path, and dropping them into a bin bag. She said she had seen the rubbish while out walking her dog, and had decided to do something about it.

From Runcorn originally, she had moved back to the town after living in Liverpool for a few years.

“I didn’t vote for Mike Amesbury, I voted for the Green party.”

She said she received a leaflet from Reform soon after Amesbury assaulted his constituent. “Reform were pretty on top of it after the incident.”

However, she said she wasn’t interested in Reform.

‘Runcorn has always been Labour’

“Runcorn has always been Labour,” she added. “I think a lot of people don’t realise that they can make an informed choice, and it’s like ‘my dad always voted for Labour, my grandad always voted for Labour’ and it’s like, you know you can choose?

“I don’t know… Nigel Farage has just got a big gob hasn’t he? I remember seeing something that said whether you like him or hate him he has influenced politics. I do not like him at all.”

She said her political views were “in the minority” in Runcorn.

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“As soon as we got that (Reform) leaflet, we thought ‘oh God, they’re really going to go for it’.”

While Conlon and Hayes were happy to chat, many of the people I stopped in Runcorn were unwilling to talk on the record about Amesbury.

One local business owner said he “couldn’t fart” in Runcorn without someone knowing about it, and added he would be afraid of the backlash if he expressed an opinion.

‘I’m trying to get out of Runcorn’

I took the train to Frodsham, a nearby affluent market town that was also the scene of Amesbury’s assault.

Chris McLeod, 22, from Runcorn, was in Frodsham to meet his mum.

“I’m trying to get out of Runcorn,” he said, adding that there weren’t a lot of opportunities in the town for young people.

“It’s a nightmare, to be honest, it drives me mad.”

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Asked what he’d like to see changed in Runcorn, he said: “Everything.”

“The kids around here are horrible, you see it all on Facebook recently. Buses being smashed, bins being set on fire everywhere. It’s horrible.”

He added: “People need to get a grip on their kids, raise them properly.”

He said he didn’t know who he’d vote for if there was a by-election. “I just go to my mum and ask her who I should vote for.”

Area in line for net zero jobs funding

Ministers are well aware of the need to create more well-paid jobs and opportunities in such industrial and post-industrial areas.

On Wednesday, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband pledged to “seize the opportunities that clean power brings” for job creation and for “reindustrialising Britain”.

Notably, residents in Runcorn and the surrounding area could benefit from funding promised to Cheshire West and Chester this week for government-backed training programmes for clean power jobs, just one of four local authorities selected.

The local authority has been earmarked as one of four “key growth regions for clean energy, with flourishing offshore wind, nuclear, and solar industries”, with potential further cash floated for nearby nuclear fuel development.

In October, Starmer also visited a glass factory in the constituency to promise billions for carbon capture and storage projects, just a few weeks before the Amesbury incident. “It’s just the start,” he told workers at the Encirc plant on the banks of the Mersey, between Chester and Runcorn.

Yet as with a string of other government initiatives, from planning reform and housebuilding to teacher recruitment, the big question politically remains whether they will bear fruit quickly enough before the next general election – let alone a potential by-election before that.

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