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For many, this Labour government has lacked a defining vision, an overriding purpose for existing. Through events beyond its control it may well have found one – to rebuild Britain’s defence and security and, in doing so, redefine our country’s role in the world.
With the post-war international order crumbling around us it falls to Keir Starmer to seize what is a historic opportunity (and challenge!), and recent events suggest he both understands this responsibility and is willing to drive through the change necessary to achieve it.
His announcement to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP over the next two years and to reach 3% in the next parliament is not sufficient to what the UK needs. But it is significant nonetheless, even though raiding an already depleted development aid budget to fund it is a very tough pill to take.
This painful trade-off is, unfortunately, necessary, not least because of the direction of US policy on Ukraine and wider European security that threatens to leave the UK and the wider continent dangerously exposed to further Russian aggression and expansionism.
Keir Starmer failed to set foot in the US in more than four years as leader of the Labour Party before last year’s general election. Yet just seven months later he has arrived in Washington DC for what may prove to be a critical meeting with Donald Trump at the White House to discuss Ukraine and European security.
The Prime Minister, having committed to sending British troops to Ukraine as part of a peace-keeping force, has recently declared that he hopes to represent a diplomatic bridge that can reunite the interests of a Trump-led America and a European continent in support of Ukrainian sovereignty. It’s an almost impossible task, at least for now.
A rapidly shifting diplomatic landscape
At an event last night at the swanky residence of the UK’s new ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, Starmer was upbeat. Rubbing shoulders with the newly appointed Director of the FBI, Kash Patel, and Howard Lutnick, Trump’s commerce secretary, he described Trump as “a close friend of the UK” and added there is “no more important relationship” to Britain than that it has with the US.
“When we work together, great things happen,” he told the assembled gathering of American and British businesspeople, diplomats and media hacks.
Bruised by attacks from Elon Musk and JD Vance, most European leaders are considerably less charitable and see Trump as, at best, an unreliable partner and, at worst, outright hostile.
The comments of the Germany’s next centre-right Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, in the wake of the country’s election on Sunday, that it was vital that Europe now embraced “real independence from the US” on defence was an extraordinary intervention from a country that owes its security and prosperity to America. But it was reflective of a wider view.
READ MORE: ‘Love it or loathe it, aid cuts and defence cash play well on the doorstep’
This week’s votes in the UN General Assembly on Ukraine, which saw the US siding with Russia and North Korea against most European countries, demonstrates that this is an administration that is more than happy to rip up long-standing international alliances and commitments in support of particular national interests.
Quite rightly, Starmer has challenged the notion that the UK should have to choose between the US and the rest of Europe. He will – and must – strain every sinew to maintain the essential elements of the transatlantic relationship that remain a key part of delivering British security and prosperity.
Yet taking a lead in bolstering European security and defence at a time the US is turning its attention to the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere, will inevitably push the UK to develop closer relationships across a range of policy areas with its allies over the English Channel.
What to expect when Starmer meets Trump
Today’s meeting, due to be begin at 12.15pm local time (5.15pm UK time) followed by a lunch and press conference, will be a crucial first test of the UK’s influence with Trump. Starmer’s announcement of increased defence spending will help and he will look to cement his personal relationship with the President.
There are unlikely to be any big diplomatic “wins” from the meeting, just as the French President returned to Paris empty-handed from his meeting with Trump on Monday. It will, however, be an important opportunity to explore how the US might be willing to support long-term security guarantees to protect Ukrainian sovereignty.
Starmer may raise the possibility of a State visit to the UK, and will hope he can get opportunity to raise the prospect of increased US/UK co-operation on trade and development of AI. But the notoriously unpredictable Trump may have other ideas of how he wants to spend the time with the British Prime Minister.
The time for feet-shuffling and delay in the UK and the rest of Europe is over, and determined leadership is required to mobilise support for a massive boost in European defence to enable the continent to take on the primary responsibility for defending itself.
READ MORE: Defence boost derails aid boost pledged in manifesto as Dodds dealt a blow
For Britain, the task will not be easy, cheap or swift. It will also require Starmer to lead a big conversation with the British public to explain, justify and, ultimately, to persuade it to pay for this critical endeavour.
There can be no greater mission for the UK today than to rally together in support of a programme to rebuild our defences and develop national resilience in the face of the these growing international threats.
There is nothing much in his past that has suggested that Starmer has had much interest or experience in international affairs. But perhaps the calm, sensible and pragmatic lawyer and public servant is the right man at the right time to talk frankly to the British people (and to the wider European continent) about what is required and what sacrifices must be made to deliver it.
Embarking on this new, overriding mission will inevitably represent a significant political risk and there will be loud and noisy objections at home opposed to sparse public resources being diverted to defence rather than to repairing crumbling public services. But the time and opportunity is now. Starmer can be the man to do it.
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