‘Scrapping social care worker visas is a reasonable evidence-based move’

Today’s attacks on Labour for scrapping care worker visas are over-blown. Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting have taken an evidence-based decision that is reasonable under the circumstances. It may come with some risks. But it does not create another crisis in social care.

Labour is right to seek to reduce net migration from the absurdly high level reached under the Tories. Action will help see off the threat from Reform and build a well-functioning labour market. But efforts to reduce migration overall should never be at the expense of highly-skilled migrants who will power the government plans for growth. We need to attract more of the brightest talent. Squaring the circle therefore means reining in migration whenever jobs can be filled in other ways.

Critically, the number of people coming from overseas to work in social care has already plummeted. There are two statistics relevant to social care migration and both are well below their recent peaks. The number of new arrivals being hired by independent care providers is down 41 per cent. The number of health and care visas issued is down 81 per cent.

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‘An orderly unwinding of care worker visas is reasonable’

The evidence shows that adult social care providers have been able to respond. It is true that the sector still faces recruitment challenges. But over the last year the vacancy rate for independent care providers has decreased from 8.1% to 6.8%, just as the changes to visa rules were kicking-in. Vacancies are now lower than before the pandemic. 

Ministers cannot know for sure that ending care worker visas will not cause care providers pain. But the numbers from the last 18 months can give them some confidence.

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Treating care workers as a shortage occupation is a recent innovation. Care worker visas only started in February 2022 at a time when vacancy rates in the sector were surging after the pandemic. As Covid restrictions eased the number of international recruits joining independent care providers shot up from 20,000 in 2021/22 to 105,000 in 2023/24.

Even more telling, the proportion of social care workers filled by UK-born workers fell from 84 per cent to 75 per cent. Care worker visas were an effective and important response to a post-Covid crisis. But an orderly unwinding of the measure is reasonable.

‘Social care will continue to employ lots of recent migrants’

The big fall in care worker visas so far has been associated with better enforcement of the rules, registration requirements for rogue recruitment agencies and a prohibition on care workers bringing dependents. There may have been a fall in employer demand too. After all it is easier to recruit a worker close to home if you can, rather than sponsor one from overseas.

Social care will continue to employ lots of recent migrants. People who have come to the UK for other reasons, mainly as dependents, will be able to apply for jobs in the sector. So will foreign care workers who are already here who want to change employer.

And perhaps the mooted EU youth mobility scheme will be another source of new blood. But adult social care can probably get by without recruiting sponsored workers direct from overseas.

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‘It’s the debate about financing that really matters’

The government’s priority should be to increase employment in the sector while pushing up the share of care workers who are UK citizens or long-term residents, at least back up to pre-Covid levels. That will mean making adult social care a sector of choice. Labour already has big plans in this area and it needs to get on with implementing them. 

The Employment Rights Bill will create a Fair Pay Agreement for social care negotiated by care providers and unions. This is almost certain to introduce a sector minimum wage set above the National Living Wage, with terms and conditions for care workers that are better than the statutory minimum.

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Higher standards will attract more workers and for the sake of domestic recruitment ministers need to implement the new arrangement fast. They should also introduce a career and skills framework to both invest in care jobs and improve the quality of care.

Making social care jobs better will cost money of course. Social care employers, unions and consumer champions should not get too distracted by changes to the migration rules, which are achievable and politically necessary. It is the debate about the financing of care that really matters. The next big choice for Labour is how much money to give to social care in the summer spending review.

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