Local elections: Three ways to measure Labour’s success tonight

This set of local elections aren’t set to be smooth sailing for Labour, but there’s a wide span of possibilities at this stage. Elections expert Lord Hayward has predicted a “bad night” for the party, while polling in the New Statesman predicts moderate Labour gains (and huge Tory losses).

For those tracking results tonight, here are three races as will give a sense of Labour’s overall performance.

West of England mayoral race (about 2am)

Labour currently holds the West of England combined authority mayor, but the race is unique in that all five parties could feasibly win it. More in Common polling found Labour’s candidate Helen Godwin had a “paper thin” lead (23%), followed by the Conservative on 21%, the Green and Reform candidates (the Reform candidate in this instance being major political donor Arron Banks) tied on 18%, with the Liberal Democrat down on 15%.

But even if some polls have shown Labour with a small lead, with the vote so thinly sliced it’s an open field. If Labour do triumph, it will be with a low vote share – but given the Labour incumbent, Dan Norris, was suspended from the party after being arrested on suspicion of sexual offences, the party won’t quibble about percentages if they do manage a victory here.

Scroll to keep reading the story below….

Runcorn by-election result (about 3am)

These local elections cover an unusually small subset of councils, as various areas that would have been contested have had their local elections cancelled due to local government reorganisation. That there are fewer seats up for grabs, and that we’ll know the Runcorn by-election outcome fairly promptly (many local counts don’t start until tomorrow morning), also means this is likely to lead media coverage of the night’s results.

It’s too simplistic to say a good night for Labour is one where its candidate Karen Shore holds off the Reform threat and wins in Runcorn – but it might well feel that way.

Subscribe here to our daily newsletter roundup of all things Labour – and follow us on  Bluesky, WhatsApp, Threads, X or Facebook.

Doncaster mayor (about 5am)

All 55 council seats are up in Doncaster, and Labour’s incumbent directly-elected mayor Ros Jones is also seeking re-election. We’ll only be finding out about the mayor tonight though, and will have to wait to hear the council results later in the weekend. Labour currently hold 41 of those 55 seats, but Reform fancy their chances in this the northern town, and Lord Hayward says that “on an awful night” for Labour, Reform could triumph. All four of the MPs whose constituencies fall within the town council’s borders are Labour (including cabinet members John Healey and Ed Miliband). A win here would calm minds in the party.

Read more on the 2025 local elections:

Analysis and what to expect

• Expert predicts ‘bad night’ with no net Labour gains 
• What’s a good night for Labour?
• ‘Uxbridgitis: If election results are grim, let’s not learn the wrong lessons again’
• Where’s Keir? PM barely features in Labour party election broadcasts for the locals
• The meme elections: Labour’s social media pivot to take fight to Farage

LabourList’s on-the-ground reports from the campaign

• Hull and East Yorkshire: Labour candidate spars with Reform’s boxing star in UK’s most disillusioned city
• Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Nik Johnson on why he’s standing down and Anna Smith on knife-edge Labour-Tory fight to replace him
• West of England: Tory and Green threats, Dan Norris and low voter awareness
• Lancashire: Long shadow of Gaza looms over key battleground

Inside the Runcorn campaign

• Mood on the doorstep: Labour’s last push for Tory voters to keep out Reform
• At least 150 Labour MPs visit – but Keir Starmer ain’t one
• Karen Shore interview: Labour candidate on Reform, the NHS and closing asylum hotels
• Runcorn poll: One in ten Labour voters expected to back Reform

• SHARE: If you have anything to share that we should be looking into or publishing about this story – or any other topic involving Labour– contact us (strictly anonymously if you wish) at [email protected].
• SUBSCRIBE: Sign up to LabourList’s morning email here for the best briefing on everything Labour, every weekday morning.
• DONATE: If you value our work, please chip in a few pounds a week and become one of our supporters, helping sustain and expand our coverage.
• PARTNER: If you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on sponsored events or projects, email [email protected].
• ADVERTISE: If your organisation would like to advertise or run sponsored pieces on LabourList‘s daily newsletter or website, contact our exclusive ad partners Total Politics at [email protected].