Local elections 2025: ‘How do Labour solve a problem like Reform?’

If recent national and local polling is anything to go by, Reform UK are in for a good weekend.

Most polls ahead of election day suggest Nigel Farage’s party could pick up hundreds of councillors in the local elections, with open questions on several combined mayoralties and an MP to boot.

Farage is so confident about his onward march that he joked last week he was going to have “the Conservatives for breakfast, and Labour for lunch.”

It should be said; most new Reform councillors will take seats from Conservatives. This is mainly because the last time they were contested was during Boris Johnson’s 2021 vaccine bounce, giving the Conservatives further to fall. But it’s also a condition of where the contests are taking place (only in England and not in Labour dominated cities like London) and the fact that Reform voters are still more likely to have peeled from the Conservatives than Labour.

But there’s no denying that Keir Starmer’s government has a ‘Reform problem’. They’re dominating media headlines, increasingly operating in their spaces and looking hungrily at traditional Labour voters. Ipsos’ large-scale Understanding Society MRP polling shows areas with strong industrial legacies are prime targets for Reform, as they are far more likely to be dissatisfied with their quality of life, jobs and crime than the rest of the UK. This poses a real threat for Labour across North England and Wales.

So, what can this Labour government do about their Reform UK problem?

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‘People voted for change, but don’t think they’re getting it’

Let’s cover the obvious stuff first. Voters consistently say delivery is important. When asked what would be most important to them in deciding who to vote for if they had local elections, Britons are equally likely to examine how well their local council has run things, as well as how the UK government has run the country (both 38%).

Their perception is that the quality of public services and the state of the country has declined. Three in five (59%) say Britain is heading in the wrong direction, which is comparable to before the election. The public voted for change, but don’t think they’re getting it.

However, there is progress that clearly isn’t landing. NHS waiting lists are a good example. They’ve declined for six months in a row, and Labour’s own target of two million additional NHS appointments has already been met.

Our latest Ipsos polling suggests they’re only getting minimal credit for this. Just one in four (26%) Britons say that Labour is doing a good job on their NHS mission. This is higher than others, including tackling serious crime (20%) and kickstarting economic growth (20%). But it’s still a shockingly low return for a key policy area where there are some obvious successes to point to.

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‘Take the fight to Farage personally’

There’s also strong argument that Labour needs to take the fight to Farage more personally. Our research show he has large leads over Keir Starmer on having “a lot of personality” (32-point lead) and being “in touch with ordinary people” (9 point lead).. This is despite him being from a more privileged background than Starmer.

The prime minister may be tempted to combat this by reminding us that his father was a toolmaker. However, perceptions are likely to be less about their backgrounds, and more about their actions. Farage is regularly seen in pubs, around people. He’s comfortable with off the cuff interactions. The perception is that Starmer isn’t. That could change quickly, but he’d need to be ready to face down some uncomfortable conversations with disgruntled voters.

Farage has a strong fan base, yes. But he also has some of the highest unfavourability ratings (49%) of any mainstream politician in Britian. That vote could be galvanised to get progressives otherwise disappointed with Starmer’s government to hold their noses and stop him from becoming Prime Minister. That’s not been effectively exploited yet, although perhaps Labour would argue they don’t need to for four years.

READ MORE: Runcorn and Helsby by-election: Labour targets Tory voters to keep out Reform

‘Keeping the electoral coalition together may hinge on progress on illegal immigration’

Finally, on immigration. 2024 Labour voters who are now unfavourable towards the government, index higher on saying immigration is a concern. In other words, keeping their electoral coalition together may depend on showing significant progress on tackling illegal immigration in particular. There are clearly risks to this with Labour’s left leaning voters. So, it may well be that Labour need to show progress on this early and land this message to their Reform waverers, while reminding their left flank of the risks of Farage entering Downing Street.

Clearly, much of this is easier said than done. And if you spoke to a Labour cabinet minister or advisor, they’d argue that the government is doing some of this already.

But the fact of the matter is that from a voter’s perspective, whatever Labour is currently doing, isn’t working.

So, to avoid Reform’s good weekend turning into an even better couple of years, something needs to change.

Read more on the 2025 local elections:

Analysis and what to expect

• Expert predicts ‘bad night’ with no net Labour gains 
• What’s a good night for Labour?
• ‘Uxbridgitis: If election results are grim, let’s not learn the wrong lessons again’
• Where’s Keir? PM barely features in Labour party election broadcasts for the locals
• The meme elections: Labour’s social media pivot to take fight to Farage

LabourList’s on-the-ground reports from the campaign

• Hull and East Yorkshire: Labour candidate spars with Reform’s boxing star in UK’s most disillusioned city
• Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Nik Johnson on why he’s standing down and Anna Smith on knife-edge Labour-Tory fight to replace him
• West of England: Tory and Green threats, Dan Norris and low voter awareness
• Lancashire: Long shadow of Gaza looms over key battleground

Inside the Runcorn campaign

• Mood on the doorstep: Labour’s last push for Tory voters to keep out Reform
• At least 150 Labour MPs visit – but Keir Starmer ain’t one
• Karen Shore interview: Labour candidate on Reform, the NHS and closing asylum hotels
• Runcorn poll: One in ten Labour voters expected to back Reform

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