Burnham, Rayner and Streeting top party members’ poll for next Labour leader

Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting would be the top picks among Labour members to succeed Keir Starmer as Labour leader if he did not lead the party into the next general election, exclusive polling by Survation for LabourList reveals.

Greater Manchester Mayor and past leadership contender Andy Burnham attracted the most support, with 57% of members placing him among their top three to succeed Keir Starmer and more than one in four (29%) making him their top pick for leader.

Meanwhile the Deputy Prime Minister was the most popular cabinet member, with 47% placing her in their top three and almost 20% as their number one. Our separate cabinet league table saw Rayner’s net favourability rating rise more than any other cabinet member over the past months.

Rayner and Burnham were significantly ahead of other figures seen as potential contenders. Health Secretary Wes Streeting (in the top three for 21% of members) and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper (in the top three for 16%) ranked third and fourth.

READ MORE: Cabinet rankings: Members happier as memo lifts Rayner and even Reeves jumps

It comes amid speculation Rayner and Burnham alike are planting seeds for potential leadership bids, after a leaked Rayner memo challenged the Chancellor and Burnham set out a wide-ranging critique of the government and alternative programme at a progressive conference last weekend. However, Rayner recently ruled out any bid for the Labour leadership, telling the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg she would “never” run for the top job.

Despite Ed Miliband placing top of our cabinet rankings, he came sixth on the leadership question, with only 14% picking the Energy Secretary as one of their top three choices to succeed the PM. However, his support was higher than for his brother, the former minister and leadership contender David Miliband, who appeared in just eight percent of members’ top three choices.

Left-wing Labour MP and former leadership hopeful Clive Lewis notably ranked fifth in the poll, not far behind Cooper, which included not only some cabinet members but also several other high-profile figures and some MPs who have previously stood for the leadership.

Lewis, an outspoken critic of the government, was a top three choice to be leader amongst 15% of members. Significantly, it puts him above several other better-known former candidates or senior figures who might have been expected to draw as much if not more support from the left of the party, such as Lisa Nandy, Sadiq Khan, Louise Haigh and Emily Thornberry (in the top three for 11%, 10%, 6% and 5% respectively).

Meanwhile Bridget Phillipson, another name sometimes floated as a potential future leadership contender, was also in the top three for just 6% of members. Darren Jones, often described as a rising star in the party and tipped for a cabinet role, secured 9%.

READ MORE: Poll: Most Labour members back full reversal of welfare and winter fuel cuts

Damian Lyons Lowe, Chief Executive of Survation, said: “If, for whatever reason, the ball came loose from the back of the scrum and Keir Starmer stepped aside, Angela Rayner would be the cabinet frontrunner to take charge – with 47% of Labour members placing her in their top three.

“Only the ‘King of the North’ Andy Burnham ranks higher overall, with 57% of members backing the Greater Manchester mayor. Burnham leads on first-choice preferences, while Rayner shows consistent strength across the board.

“Beyond that, the field thins quickly: Wes Streeting, Yvette Cooper and Clive Lewis form a distant third tier. Strikingly, Great Offices of State figures like Rachel Reeves and David Lammy barely register, with just two percent of members including Reeves in their top three.”

The poll is the latest in a series of regular polls LabourList is publishing in partnership with leading pollsters Survation, a member of the British Polling Council and a Market Research Society Partner.

Survation surveyed 1,304 LabourList readers who also said they were Labour Party members between May 30 and June 1.

Data was weighted to the profile of party members by age, sex, region and 2020 Labour leadership vote, targets for which were derived from the British Election Study and the results of the 2020 leadership election.

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