Cabinet rankings: Members happier as memo lifts Rayner and even Reeves jumps

Almost all cabinet ministers have seen a bump in approval ratings among Labour members over the past two months despite the party’s difficult local election campaign, exclusive polling by Survation for LabourList reveals.

The average Secretary of State saw an eight percentage point leap in their rating – the proportion who feel positive minus those feel negative – in our regular cabinet league table tracker.

It suggests member sentiment has improved overall since our last poll, which took place in the immediate aftermath of the Spring Statement and amid a fierce welfare row – but comes ahead of a testing week for party unity with the Spending Review imminent.

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner saw the biggest increase in favourability, jumping from +46 to +71, and also finished second in our separate polling on future leadership contenders. It comes notably just after the leak of Rayner’s reported memo to the Chancellor proposing alternative approaches to taxation and balancing the books, and is likely to be widely taken as a sign the memo bolstered Rayner’s appeal with the grassroots.

Despite her spike in approval, Rayner came second in our league table, behind Energy Secretary Ed Miliband – who placed as the most liked member of the Cabinet for the third LabourList-Survation poll in a row.

READ MORE: ​Burnham, Rayner and Streeting top party members’ poll for next Labour leader

Even members of the cabinet lower down the league table in our recent polls, namely Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall and Chancellor Rachel Reeves, saw a boost in popularity of ten percentage points and 13 percentage points respectively. However, both have the lowest favorability meetings among members of the government by some margin, likely reflecting disquiet over the Chancellor’s spending restraint and Kendall’s contentious welfare reforms. 

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper remained in positive territory at +23 but was one of the few cabinet members who saw her approval drop. The -2 percentage point decline could reflect some members’ opposition to the government’s hardening stance on immigration and “island of strangers” rhetoric, though it may surprise some and relieve her supporters that the decline was only slight.

Starmer favourability, but shifts in regional support

Prime Minister Keir Starmer maintains a net negative approval rating in the poll, the first since the party’s disappointing local election results, but it increased from -13 two months ago to -7.

His approval was weakest among 25 and 34-year-olds at -26, but strongest among 45 and 54-year-olds at +3.

READ MORE: Poll: Most Labour members back full reversal of welfare and winter fuel cuts

By region, Starmer received a net negative approval rating in all but two regions of Great Britain – the exceptions being Wales (+10) and Yorkshire and the Humber (+4). His approval was lowest in the North East of England at just -23.

Slight improvement in number saying Labour heading in right direction

After a bruising local election campaign and amid continued party unrest over “tough decisions”, LabourList’s poll also saw almost two-thirds of members (64%) say Labour is heading in the wrong direction, with only 27% believing the government is heading in the right direction.

However, this figure is a slight improvement on our last poll with Survation, which had 68% tell the pollster Labour was heading in the wrong direction, and 23% saying the party was heading in the right direction.

‘Leadership faces a tougher road to rebuilding support among grassroots’

Damian Lyons Lowe, Chief Executive of Survation, said: “As we approach a year into this Labour government, Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband have clear leads as the most popular cabinet ministers among party members, with net favourability scores of +71 and +74 respectively.

“Rayner’s 25-point jump since April 3 suggests members strongly back her performance as Deputy Prime Minister.”

Lyons Lowe said “rising recognition” for many ministers could be contributing to growing confidence, pointing to gains for Mahmood and Reynolds.

“However, persistently poor ratings for Rachel Reeves (-28%) and an improving but still-negative score for Keir Starmer (-7%) underline that the leadership faces a tougher road to rebuilding support among the grassroots.”

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Tom Belger, editor of LabourList, said: “This poll gives a fascinating snapshot of the mood among the party faithful. Many members may be restless, but the notable upward trend for most of the cabinet members gives ministers a rare piece of good news.

“The trouble is – maintaining that momentum in the coming weeks, when even Rachel Reeves admits the Spending Review will be difficult, will be no mean feat.

“Members’ views are also more nuanced than sometimes assumed. Positive sentiment towards a particular minister may just mean a member likes what they’re doing or saying in government, rather than wanting them to lead a cabinet mutiny. Ed Milliband topps the favorability poll, but members also ranked him second last in a previous poll scoring the seven most recent Labour leaders.”

The poll is the latest in a series of regular polls LabourList is publishing in partnership with leading pollsters Survation, a member of the British Polling Council and a Market Research Society Partner.

Survation surveyed 1,304 readers of LabourList, the leading dedicated newsletter and news and comment website for Labour supporters, who also said they were Labour Party members between May 30 and June 1.

Data was weighted to the profile of party members by age, sex, region and 2020 Labour leadership vote, targets for which were derived from the British Election Study and the results of the 2020 leadership election.

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