Iran crisis: Poll shows members back PM handling of Trump to date – will it last?

A majority of Labour members approve of how the government has managed its relationship with the Trump administration, though a signficant minority do not, a recent poll for LabourList reveals.

But with the US government seemingly on the verge of war with Iran, and the UK government facing likely US pressure to support them, it begs the question – can that enthusiasm last?

The Survation poll found that 57% of members approve of how the Labour government is managing its relationship with Donald Trump’s government, compared to 40% who disapprove, a net difference of 17%.

Respondents were asked: “To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the way the Labour government is managing its relationship with the Trump administration?”

The polling was taken after Keir Starmer had signed the US-UK trade deal with Donald Trump, but before Israel launched a salvo of missile attacks against Iran and Donald Trump’s recent escallation in warnings to Iran.

Since then the two countries have exchanged further missiles, with fears the conflict could spread across the Middle East.

Labour’s difficult bind and Iraq’s long shadow

As it stands, Starmer is working with allies in France and Germany to de-escalate the conflict, as well as appealing directly to the US, Israel’s most powerful backer.

The one major unknown is what Donald Trump will do, with the US remaining on the fence for the moment.

If the US enters the conflict, it may seek support from the UK, leaving Starmer in a difficult bind.

At the very least, it appears the Chagos Islands could potentially be used as a major launch pad for US attacks, drawing Britain further into the conflict.

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The Iraq war became one of the defining issues of the Tony Blair years, overshadowing New Labour’s many domestic achievements among many voters.

So far Starmer has been lauded for his success on the world stage, with almost two-thirds (65%) of members saying he has dealt with foreign affairs well or extremely well, compared with just 23% who held a negative view.

The latest escalation and the possibility of further UK involvement will likely have some activists worried already about the politics of anything remotely resembling the build-up to the Iraq war.

Yet if Starmer keeps Britain firmly out of the conflict, many in government from the Foreign Office to the Treasury will worry about the diplomatic and economic fallout.

One thing is certain: international affairs just became a much thornier issue for the Prime Minister…

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