Lucy Powell extends lead in deputy leadership race – exclusive poll

Lucy Powell has increased her lead over Bridget Phillipson in the race to become the deputy leader of the Labour Party, exclusive polling for LabourList has revealed.

Polling for LabourList conducted by Survation found that 57% of members who are likely to vote will back Powell in the contest, compared to 26% for Phillipson. Around one in five members (18%) remain undecided. This gives Powell a 31-point lead over Phillipson, almost double her lead from our poll last week.

When those who are undecided were asked which candidate they leaned towards, Powell’s lead increased to a ratio of two to one over Phillipson, with 67% to 33% respectively.

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Phillipson is widely seen as the leadership favourite, despite her pointing out – not least to our Editor – the level of briefings she has endured against her in government. However, she trails Lucy Powell among members who backed Keir Starmer in the 2020 leadership election, with more than half (52%) backing the former Commons leader and 30% backing the Education Secretary.

Powell has stronger support among those who backed Rebecca Long-Bailey at 78%, while support for Phillipson is strongest among those who voted for Lisa Nandy at 32% – although a majority (52%) of those support Powell.

Powell leads in every region of Great Britain, with her support greatest in the East of England, with a 54-point lead over Phillipson. Support for Powell is weakest in North East England, where Bridget Phillipson sits as an MP, though Powell still has a 16-point lead. Phillipson’s support among Labour members is strongest in London, with 35% backing her compared to 52% for Powell.

Last night the Party released the latest data on which constituencies had nominated each candidate. Powell was leading here too on 221 to 140 for Phillipson.

This map does not include Scottish CLPs which nominate according to Scottish Parliamentary seats.

Scottish Seats have nominated the following:

Bridget Phillipson

• Clydebank and Milngavie
• Dumbarton
• Dundee City West
• Edinburgh Central
• Edinburgh Eastern
• Edinburgh Northern and Leith
• Edinburgh Pentlands
• Moray
• Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch

Lucy Powell

• Almond Valley
• Angus North and Mearns
• Ayr
• Clydesdale
• Cunninghame North
• Dunfermline
• Falkirk East
• Glasgow Anniesland
• Glasgow Kelvin
• Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn
• Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse
• Mid Fife and Glenrothes
• Paisley
• Stirling

Editor of LabourList Emma Burnell said: “Deputy leader of the Labour Party – especially with no expectation of becoming Deputy Prime Minister – is a very ill-defined job. As such, Labour members are free to make this choice mean what they want it to with little fear of the consequences.

“As they are being offered a choice of two talented women, whose politics are not that dissimilar, Powell’s lead could be seen as a way of sending a message of discontent to the Party about the direction and management of government.

“That is not to dismiss either Powell’s campaign or Phillipson’s chances. Both have shown a lot of energy and campaigning spirit in this contest. There is some way to go in this election, and with not a single member’s vote yet cast, Phillipson could turn these numbers around.

“But to do so, she will have to redefine the contest itself in the minds of members to make it feel less like a free ‘hit’ on the leadership. And Powell will be doing everything she can to stop that happening.”

Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, said: “Bridget Phillipson remains one of the most popular cabinet ministers among Labour members, but our polling shows that the deputy leadership race is being fought on different terrain.

“In this contest, members who want continuity with the leadership are sticking with Phillipson, while those looking to send a message of change are swinging behind Lucy Powell.”

The poll is the latest in a series of regular polls LabourList is publishing in partnership with leading pollsters Survation, a member of the British Polling Council and a Market Research Society Partner.

Survation surveyed 1,254 readers of LabourList, the leading dedicated newsletter and news and comment website for Labour supporters, who also said they were Labour Party members between September 23 and 25.

Data was weighted to the profile of party members by age, sex, region and 2020 Labour leadership vote, targets for which were derived from the British Election Study and the results of the 2020 leadership election.

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