‘Reform will own the week – Labour must own the future’

Politics is about momentum, and the polls suggest that’s with Reform. This week, Nigel Farage will stride onto the Reform UK conference stage, flanked by slogans about “fixing Britain” and “halving crime”. Expect more headline-grabbing pledges: 30,000 new police officers, “deport-first” border policies, promises to cut your bills tomorrow.

Most won’t add up, but they will sound bold, simple and urgent, and strike an emotional chord. They will resonate with voters who feel ignored and, while the next election is likely years away, the battle for their support is well underway. 

Labour must take the fight to Reform – and the only way to win it is to start a fight for Britain’s future.

Reform’s advantage

The only constant amongst the electorate is their volatility. Party ties were severed after Brexit and, in a desperate search for change, voters will go anywhere. So too, it seems, will Conservative politicians as councillors and activists defect to Reform on a weekly basis.

Britain’s traditional party landscape is fracturing in real time. Reform’s success isn’t built on a detailed policy programme. They don’t have one. But what they do have is a talent for seizing the public mood. They’ve declared Britain “broken” and vowed to “fix it fast.” This matches a pervasive sense of decline in the country that Labour must address.

Reform’s first 100 days running local councils have been a masterclass in political theatre: scrapping “net zero gimmicks”, airport departure boards and redirecting funds in the name of quick savings. They’ve pledged to halve crime in five years and recruit 30,000 police officers. These are simple, memorable answers to complex problems. On immigration, they’ve tapped deep anxieties, embracing “deport-first” rhetoric and positioning themselves as the only party willing to be tough on borders.

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Let’s talk about delivery

I’m from Liverpool. I grew up believing, as many of us did, that progressive parties like Labour were my party, they were of and for working people, and they delivered for communities like mine. But I’ve also seen first-hand what happens when people stop believing that. When delivery doesn’t match up with expectation. That’s the crack in the foundation Reform is trying to prise open – and in some areas, it’s starting to show.

For too many voters the system doesn’t work. This isn’t a purely British phenomenon: do a focus group in any western democracy and, once the translations are done, you could be anywhere. There is recognition of this across Labour and serious work happening to prove to voters that mainstream politics can deliver.

In places like Sefton and Stevenage, Labour councillors who delivered on the ground for local people didn’t just hold their seats, they increased their majorities. When people see government working for them, they stick with it. When they don’t, they look elsewhere.

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Bold solutions that work

At the Tony Blair Institute, we’ve been thinking hard about what this moment truly demands. In our recent paper, Disruptive Delivery, we surveyed over 12,000 voters across the UK, US, Australia, Canada and France – and the results were sobering. Across every country, a deep sense of decline cuts across political lines. Most strikingly, just 26% of people in the UK believe children born today will be better off than their parents, the lowest figure of any country surveyed. That’s not just economic pessimism; it’s a crisis of belief in progress itself.

This is not just a grave challenge, it is the opportunity for our politics. A government with a clear political project to arrest decline, transform country and community, and   that can move fast, solve problems, and earn back trust through results will win the next election. It means building a state that’s modern, responsive, and ambitious. One that uses tech smartly, empowers communities, and ditches the bureaucracy that holds progress back. 

Take Digital ID: if introduced to cut red tape and improve efficiency, it could save at least £2 billion a year by reducing fraud and better targeting state support. It’s the kind of practical, tangible change that works and that people interact with – and would prove government can improve Britain.

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The choice for Labour

Reform’s rise – even where they didn’t win – shows how quickly disillusionment can gather force. The danger isn’t that Reform will sweep to government tomorrow, but that their style of politics will keep shaping the conversation while others play catch-up.

We are in a fight for the future of our country. The advantage should lie with those who govern. Labour must take stock: a huge majority, talent amongst its ranks, the right messaging around change and renewal. Power. It must now be decisive and claim the future with visible, disruptive delivery.

Incrementalism is the enemy. Playing it safe is the enemy. Relying on ‘not being Farage’ is the enemy. Transform Britain. Because if Labour doesn’t, Reform will promise to, however hollow that promise may be.

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