‘Labour will be wiped out without reset’: reaction to historic Caerphilly defeat

Labour politicians, activists and supporters have been reacting to the party’s seismic and historic defeat in the Caerphilly by-election, which saw the party sink to third place behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK with just 11% of the vote.

Welsh Labour themselves acknowledged that the by-election was fought “in the toughest of circumstances, and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally”.

Party leader and First Minister Eluned Morgan said: “Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough. We take our share of responsibility for this result. We are listening, we are learning the lessons and we will come back stronger.”

Cabinet minister Nick Thomas-Symonds and MP for Torfaen told LBC’s Nick Ferrari that the by-election was “disappointing” and said: “I’ve been out on the doorsteps… and what’s been coming through very strongly is a frustration with the pace of change. People want us to go faster with the pace of change. We’ve had thousands of conversations on the doorstep. We’ve listened. We treat the result with humility. We will then act on that, redouble our efforts in the six months before the Senedd election.”

While neighbouring Labour MS for Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Dawn Bowden welcomed that Caerfilly said no to “hate and division” from Reform, she said the result had been a “disappointing night” for Labour.

“My final thought is with our dear friend Hefin David whose sudden passing caused this by-election.”

‘Damning indictment of government that refuses to tax rich properly’

Left-wing pressure group Momentum was more critical in its response to the loss, stressing the need for a shift in focus to prevent similar losses at next year’s local and devolved elections.

The group said: “The drop in Labour support in traditional heartlands can only be described as an existential threat to the party’s future.

“This is a damning indictment of a Labour government that refuses to tax the rich properly and fails to genuinely reverse austerity. What’s worse, any efforts by party members, MPs and trade unions to raise alarm bells have been stifled by Starmer and McSweeney’s authoritarianism.

“Labour will lose more strongholds across the country in the May 2026 elections unless it starts implementing policies that will transform the lives of working-class communities.”

READ MORE: Only one in four members want Starmer to resign if Labour lose Senedd election

‘Labour will be wiped out in Wales without a major reset’

Newly founded centre-left group Mainstream said that Labour’s defeat was “a tragedy, but not a surprise”.

“So long as UK Labour governs without a clear vision and story to tell people who we are, detached from its moral purpose and democratic socialist foundations, losses like this will only become the norm.

“A majority of voters in Caerphilly turned to Plaid Cymru and a significant number to Reform because they want change. The only way to resist this is by offering a popular, principled and practical left politics that can transform the country by raising living standards, redistributing power and wealth, and securing a stake for everyone in a national community that guarantees the essentials for a good life for all.

“Labour must draw upon the wisdom, talent and energy of its whole movement to build an offer that can inspire the public.

“The result is clear – Labour will be wiped out in Wales next May without a major reset.”

Questions over social media strategy

Meanwhile Welsh commentator Richard Martin took umbrage with Welsh Labour’s social media strategy during the by-election. In particular, he took issue with a post featuring a child-like drawing of a rose with the caption ‘our graphic designer is on leave’, a TikTok video with candidate Richard Tunnicliffe overlaid with the song Father Figure by George Michael, and bar charts that suggested the contest was a close race between Labour and Reform.

He said: “I hope that the folks in Welsh/UK Labour who take the job seriously reflect on whether this was a campaign from a party serious about governing responsibly.

“They made it easier for supporters to look elsewhere for leadership.”

Among Welsh Labour figures, there is now said to be soul searching following the defeat, with one source telling LabourList that there needs to be an acknowledgement that both Welsh Labour and UK Labour share the blame for the loss, and that the there needs to be a renewal of the Welsh Labour project with a focus on economic competence.

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Can Labour benefit from tactical voting in May?

More in Common hosted a focus group in Caerphilly in the run-up to the by-election, with locals telling the pollster of a sense that Labour had lost touch with people, particularly over areas such as the winter fuel allowance.

UK director for the pollster Luke Tryl said the scale of Plaid’s win in Caerphilly demonstrates the potential for progressive tactical voting to block Reform.

“Will this be the case in more seats, and more importantly – whereas Labour were the party that was squeezed here – in contests where they are the main contender against Reform, can they, even as incumbents, get disillusioned progressives to come back and back them tactically?”

Pollster Peter Kellner said that while the by-election was “awful for Labour”, it also demonstrated that Nigel Farage is not currently on course to become Prime Minister.

In a post on his Substack, he said: “The result suggests that Reform may be near its ceiling, and that it may struggle to rise, and sustain, support much above 35 percent nationally. I wouldn’t go so far just yet to make that a firm prediction, but it’s a hypothesis that can be checked in future elections, not least next May.”

Kellner also highlighted how tactical voting played a role in preventing a Reform victory in Caerphilly, noting: “Without tactical voting, 25 percent of the national vote is likely to give Reform 200-250 seats (depending on how the remaining votes are divided among the other parties). But if enough of the remaining 75 percent are determined to defeat Reform locally, they will succeed – possibly costing Reform dozens of seats.”

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