Ben Cooper Column: ‘Gaining public consent for scrapping the two child cap is difficult but essential’

With both Bridget Phillipson and Lucy Powell condemning the two-child limit in the deputy leadership race, and growing rumours that it will be scrapped in the forthcoming budget, the end of this dreadful policy seems closer than ever before. Scrapping the two-child limit would transform the lives of families across the country. Over 350,000 children would be lifted out of poverty overnight. It is clearly the right thing for the government to do.

READ MORE: ‘Lift the two-child cap and enable every child to fulfil their potential’

But we shouldn’t pretend that scrapping the two-child limit is a politically easy thing to do – especially for a government seeking to rebuild its political coalition. While there is strong support for tackling child poverty, there is equally strong opposition to scrapping the two-child limit. 

A Fabian Society survey with YouGov earlier this year found that 59 per cent of the public overall said the limit should be kept and 25 per cent said it should be removed. Labour voters also want the limit kept. A majority (51 per cent) of respondents who voted Labour in 2024 back the two-child limit – compared to 32 per cent wanting it removed.  

The public believe that the two-child limit is fair for children and parents. When asked to consider the children affected, respondents to our survey were 25 percentage points more likely to say that the two-child limit is fair than unfair for the children affected. They were 34 percentage points more likely to say it is fair for parents affected.

Even those who voted Labour in 2024 were 10 percentage points more likely to say the policy is fair for children and 24 percentage points more likely to say it is fair for parents. While many Labour members strongly disagree, this belief in the fairness of the two-child limit will influence the public’s opposition to scrapping it. 

Public consent is crucial

It is legitimate to question how much public opinion should matter when it comes to scrapping the two-child limit. Many will probably think that any policy that lifts over 350,000 children out of poverty should be prioritised – even if there is strong opposition.

However, public consent is crucial for any government seeking a sustained reduction in child poverty. Ignoring public attitudes risks a significant backlash that might prevent future action to reduce child poverty. At worst, it will let the Conservatives or Reform reverse Labour’s progress after the next election, and plunge thousands of children back into poverty. Limited public support is why Conservative-led governments were able to scrap Labour’s successful reforms after the 2010 election.

Today, the political risk is even higher than it was for the previous Labour government. The next budget is likely to require tax hikes due to 14 years of Conservative financial mismanagement and underinvestment in our public services. The government’s political opponents will want to persuade the public that Labour is hiking up taxes on hard-working people to scrap the two-child limit. 

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Such a perception could be built on existing concerns about scrapping the two-child limit. When asked unprompted by YouGov about their biggest concern regarding the policy, 34 per cent said “people taking advantage of the system and being discouraged from working” and 26 per cent said “the source of funding/increase in taxes”. Just 14 per cent explicitly said they had no concerns about scrapping the two-child limit.  

A backlash can be avoided

Therefore, Labour must understand the scale of the opposition to scrapping the two-child limit – and react accordingly. If two-child limit is scrapped at the next budget, the government must tell the right story. By rooting the decision in shared values and treating the concerns of the majority with respect, a backlash can be avoided.

To do this, the government should be laser-focused on how scrapping the two-child limit is a helping hand for families in work, and those with a disabled child. 

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Fabian Society modelling suggests nearly 90 per cent of children who would benefit from scrapping the two-child limit live in families where at least one parent is in work, or in families with a disabled child. And there is much more public openness to scrapping the two-child limit for these groups. Our survey found 46 per cent backed scrapping it for families with disabled children and 45 per cent backed scrapping it for families who are in work. This is a source of potential public support that the government can tap into.    

Ultimately scrapping the two-child limit is the right thing to do. But for a government behind in the polls, it is politically risky. Labour must focus on the damaging impact on working families and families with disabled children caused by the limit. In doing so, it can seek to minimise public opposition, build the case for further action to tackle child poverty, and ensure this progress is a lasting legacy.  

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