Lord Hayward: Disappointing May elections could decide Keir Starmer’s fate

Elections expert Lord Hayward has warned next May’s local and devolved elections could decide the future of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves.

He claimed that Labour is currently on course for a bruising set of election results across the country, which could “add substantially to the fire” of calls for Starmer to quit as party leader and Prime Minister.

Council elections are due to take place on May 7 in all 32 London boroughs, as well as in Birmingham, Greater Manchester, Tyneside, and across the Home Counties. Devolved elections are also taking place in Scotland and Wales.

Lord Hayward said: “There will be four main areas of attention for Labour and therefore for Starmer and Reeves; Scotland, Wales, London and the regional cities. In every case, the prospects for Labour look bad.

“The ‘big’ elections next year are Scotland and Wales, with a ripple effect elsewhere.

“The results in Scotland will have the most important constitutional implications, but may also give any indications of peoples’ willingness to vote tactically to keep Reform out.

“In Wales, the size of the Senedd is increasing and the whole electoral process is changing very substantially. Proportional vote share changes may therefore be the most relevant method of judging failure or success.”

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Hayward also said there would be a “cacophony of winners” at the expense of Labour and to the Conservatives.

“While Reform will probably gain the most seats, the big gainers both constitutionally, in one case, and psychologically are also likely to include all the other parties – the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and Gaza independents.”

However, Hayward also said that the Conservatives have the prospect of making some gains in London.

Current polling in Scotland and Wales suggests Labour could be pushed into third behind Reform and the SNP and Plaid.

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