‘Defecting to Reform follows the polls. Answering the great questions of our age follows the people’

When elected MPs defect to Reform UK, they’re making a political statement. But let’s be clear about what kind: they’re following the polls, not following the people. 

The latest polling shows Reform at 28-29 per cent – ahead of both major parties. Switching rosettes to chase that number is the easiest possible response to voter disillusionment. But polls measure surface sentiment. What voters actually need – what they’re crying out for – are leaders willing to grapple with the fundamental questions our politics keeps avoiding. 

At the Tony Blair Institute, our Disruptive Delivery research revealed something stark: just 26 per cent of people in the UK believe children born today will be better off than their parents. The lowest figure of any of the five democracies we surveyed. 

This collapse in belief is a reflection of a deep, pervasive sense of decline. It’s a response to the seismic change we’re living through. Or, perhaps more accurately, the failure of mainstream politics to answer the questions that transformation demands answers to. 

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We’re entering an age of superpowers and we’re in the epicentre of an AI revolution. The doom loop of low growth, low investment, low productivity continues and we’re still bearing witness to a crisis in our public services. Voters watch as the world transforms around them in real-time and they know that time’s up for the status quo. Our research shows it’s this feeling that’s driving people away from mainstream politics – not a lurch left or right. But for voters, it’s not about switching sides. It’s about answering the big questions of our time. 

How does Britain build power and become part of something more powerful in an age of superpowers? How do we build capability in our people – accessible at every point in their lives – to thrive when AI transforms the job market? How do we create new sources of wealth that enable us to grow our economy and invest in public services? How do we genuinely transform those services to meet citizens’ demands – ensuring it’s not just those with means who access best-in-class health and education? How do we build resilience and trust in our people and institutions in this age of insecurity? 

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These are the fundamentals of national renewal. And the gap between their scale and the incrementalism of our politics is why three-quarters of the country have given up on the future. 

Here’s what a truly powerful political statement would look like: committing to develop actual solutions to these challenges whilst delivering tangible change people can see and feel. 

That requires machinery fit for purpose. I’ve been calling for reviving the Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit – a body in Number 10, stamped with PM authority, with convening power to tackle long-term challenges rather than firefight daily crises. 

But vision without day-to-day delivery is useless. So is day-to-day delivery without vision. That’s why we need to ruthlessly embrace a new theory of public service reform. What competition = choice = quality was to the New Labour government, data-driven = personalised = preventative = always on, can be to this one. Voters want this. Across the political spectrum our research shows they prioritise competence over ideology. They want governments that demonstrate the state can work at 21st century speed and answer 21st century questions. 

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This is the real argument for digital identity: properly introduced, it saves £2 billion annually whilst eliminating the form-filling that makes every state interaction feel like punishment. Or the NHS App becoming a genuine front door to healthcare – managing conditions proactively, delivering personalised care and bringing best-in-class therapeutics to people. These are the services that people with money pay for. They should be available for everyone. 

This approach is what we’ve called “disruptive delivery” – restoring the state’s agency to tackle big problems by breaking with established ways of doing things, challenging bureaucracy, and moving at the pace public impatience demands. It rejects the false choice between defending a status quo and tearing down the system altogether. This is a third way – not incrementalism, not caution, but visible change that proves the machinery of government can be fixed. 

This is the choice facing progressive politics: follow those parties exploiting grievance – sometimes literally – or lead by grappling with the fundamental challenges the country faces.  

So lets be clear. The MPs defecting have chosen to follow polls over people. They’re betting that today’s sentiment matters more than tomorrow’s solutions. 

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The truly powerful political statement – the one that actually follows the people – would be demonstrating that democratic institutions can still answer the great questions of our age. 

That’s harder than switching parties. It’s also the only thing that will actually work. 

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