‘The politics of the Gorton and Denton by-election’

By‑elections are rarely just contests between parties; they are arguments about what voters think the election is for. Gorton and Denton is no exception. This campaign pulls in two directions: is it a national verdict on Labour and Keir Starmer, or a local decision about day‑to‑day representation?

Which interpretation voters settle on is likely to matter more than any individual policy debate.

National campaigns vs local politics

Labour’s campaign has leaned heavily into practical local issues – potholes, parking, fly‑tipping and everyday services – addressing the question voters often ask in by‑elections: what will you actually do here, and what kind of representative will you be?

Reform and the Greens have largely taken a different approach, framing the contest through national politics. Their messaging centres on Labour’s national record and leadership, placing Keir Starmer and Labour’s wider difficulties at the heart of campaign material, alongside broader arguments on immigration, Gaza, the NHS, environmental policy, public services and cultural questions.

What stands out is the absence of a single defining issue. Instead, national grievances appear as a loose collection of themes, bound together by attempts to turn the election into a referendum on Labour. Labour’s calculation appears to be that these arguments often sound louder in leaflets than they do on the doorstep. The dividing line in the campaign is therefore less ideological than contextual: national politics versus local relevance.

A three‑horse race treated as two

Alongside this runs a quieter but equally important struggle: shaping perceptions of who can actually win.

In electoral terms, this looks like a genuine three‑horse race. Yet each campaign is trying to present it as a contest between just two sides.

Reform and the Greens increasingly frame the election as a straight fight between themselves, each warning that a vote for Labour risks letting the other through. The logic is simple – consolidate protest votes by persuading supporters that only one challenger is viable.

Labour is advancing its own version of the same argument. As the incumbent party, it suggests that a vote for the Greens risks opening the door to Reform, encouraging centre‑left voters to treat the election as a binary choice between Labour and a Reform win.

The result is an unusual situation in which three parties are simultaneously advancing different versions of a two‑horse race, each omitting a different opponent. The contest is no longer just about policies or candidates, but about how voters understand the shape of the race itself. The “two‑horse race” is not a description of reality so much as an attempt to create it.

READ MORE: ‘A case for hope amid hard times’

Turnout still decides by‑elections

For all the competing narratives, the underlying mechanics are familiar. This is, above all, a turnout election.

By‑elections are rarely won through dramatic shifts in opinion during the campaign. They are won by campaigns that know where their vote is and get it to the polling station. Reform has concentrated activity heavily in Denton and the more traditionally working-class electorate, while the Greens have focused effort where they already have stronger support in leafy middle class areas. 

Labour has prioritised sustained ground campaigning, built around repeated doorstep conversations and high volumes of direct voter contact on local issues.

Visibility can shape impressions. Turnout decides outcomes.

What Gorton and Denton suggests

The wider lesson from Gorton and Denton is a simple one. By‑elections are shaped less by the loudest argument than by the version of the election voters come to accept.

Where voters see a national referendum, national frustrations tend to dominate behaviour. Where they see a choice about local representation, organisation, familiarity and motivation matter far more – particularly in fragmented, multi‑party contests where turnout effects are decisive.

Subscribe here to our daily newsletter roundup of Labour news, analysis and comment– and follow us on TikTok, Bluesky, WhatsApp, X and Facebook.

Gorton and Denton illustrates the conditions under which by‑elections can diverge from national trends, without guaranteeing that they will. A locally grounded campaign that succeeds in motivating its vote creates the space to buck the wider political climate; when that motivation falls short, national dynamics quickly reassert themselves. 

The outcome, as so often in by‑elections, will hinge on which understanding of the contest ultimately takes hold – and which campaigns are able to turn it into votes on polling day.

Share your thoughts. Contribute on this story or tell your own by writing to our Editor. The best letters every week will be published on the site. Find out how to get your letter published.

• • SHARE: If you have anything to share that we should be looking into or publishing about this story – or any other topic involving Labour– contact us (strictly anonymously if you wish) at [email protected].
  • SUBSCRIBE: Sign up to LabourList’s morning email here for the best briefing on everything Labour, every weekday morning.
  • DONATE: If you value our work, please chip in a few pounds a week and become one of our supporters, helping sustain and expand our coverage.
  • PARTNER: If you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on sponsored events or projects, email [email protected].
  • ADVERTISE: If your organisation would like to advertise or run sponsored pieces on LabourList‘s daily newsletter or website, contact our exclusive ad partners Total Politics at [email protected].