The ‘Burnham bounce’

The phrase “Burnham bounce” has quickly entered Labour’s political vocabulary.

When the PLP decided to throw the overwhelming majority of its support behind the newly elected MP for Makerfield, how the public would take to the displacement of Keir Starmer as PM was not an obvious reaction to call.

But following a strong opening week, the momentum seems entirely with Burnham, and, as a result, Labour at present. Across LabourList today, you can read several articles that demonstrate the extent to which the ‘vibes’ have shifted inside our party.

In my interview with Bev Craig, I recognised exactly this as I met campaigners on a street corner in Salford to join them on their round of doorknocking. The positivity and optimism surrounding her election campaign was there for all to see.

READ MORE: Poll reveals voting intentions of Labour members for NEC election

Craig came across to me as an incredibly thoughtful politician with a clear sense of direction. Throughout the interview, she outlined a vision for the city region that is rooted in long-term planning rather than short-term headlines, only promising policies she knows she can deliver.

Of course, thanks to Andy and Bev, buses are very much a topic of conversation in Greater Manchester. With her policy to extend on the work Andy started, she hopes to extend his free bus travel for 16-18 year olds and allow 11-16 year olds the same opportunity. With this, Craig demonstrates both a continuity of the popular policy approach Burnham brought to the city region, while also outlining her own personal political philosophy behind these decisions.

Current polling indicators suggest Labour’s campaign in Greater Manchester has also benefitted from the ‘Burnham bounce’, providing a sense of optimism about how this election might go.

But, as Bev says: “it’s not a done deal” and we must never get complacent.

If you can find the time to support Bev as we enter the last 48 hours of campaigning, then please do. LabourList is with you all the way!

The “Burnham bounce” has not only become a feature of media commentary. According to analysis of LabourList’s latest polling – conducted by Survation – it also appears to be reflected in how Labour members view the government’s senior ministers.

Our resident data expert Daniel Green examines approval ratings across the cabinet following the reshuffle and finds evidence that positive sentiment extends well beyond the Prime Minister.

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One particularly notable finding is that the Prime Minister is now Labour members’ favourite member of the government team. That represents a marked contrast with the position seen during Keir Starmer’s premiership.

The wider trend is equally significant – as Daniel points out: “Of the 14 ministers who remained in Burnham’s Cabinet post-reshuffle, nine have seen a ‘Burnham bounce’ in approval among party members.”

Following a week of policy announcements and an excellently coordinated communications strategy, national polling has shown Labour moving ahead of Reform for the first time since 2025. While a single week of polling should never be treated as definitive, the result represents an important shift in the political narrative surrounding this government.

In short, it is evidence that the ‘Burnham bounce’ is as real outside of the party among the general public, as it is internally for Labour.

My advice to you is to enjoy this moment, without becoming complacent. It won’t always be like this, because politics can quickly get tough. But while it is, smile at the optimism you can feel as the polls – and vibes – finally seem to swing back in Labour’s direction.

Long may it continue. 

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