‘Andy Burnham is right: Social cohesion is key to national security’

In his first major intervention on defence and international affairs, Andy Burnham presciently said, “I see our strength at home and our strength in the world as indivisible.” He could not be more right. Our international adversaries – particularly Russia and Iran – have long thought the same. They view the domestic destabilisation of Western democracies as a field of combat just as important as any conventional battlefield. If they can disassemble the Western alliance without firing a shot on a NATO ally, they will have accomplished the principal aim of their grand strategy.

So while a new energy and optimism on the part of the Prime Minister is welcome, the scale of division, institutional distrust and rising extremism in the country is an acute vulnerability.

How willingly people respect the rule of law and accept the legitimacy of the state and its institutions is essential for a functioning democracy. This is of course dependent on the social contract – the reciprocal relationship between citizens and state. Yet as our new report Britain Under Strain reveals, the broken social contract is fuelling support for conspiracy theories, a mainstreaming of extremism and an openness to ignore rules. 61 percent of Britons believe the social contract is broken, cutting across political orientation and socio-economic status – where most blame successive government failure to deliver, and a distrust of politicians for this striking loss of faith. This is leading to a decline in support for our democratic institutions, with 40 per cent saying democracy doesn’t work (but could with the right leaders).

READ MORE: ‘Beyond the vibe-shift – five immediate things Burnham should do to mend politics’

The fractured relationship between citizen and state – which is also eroding in part because of failing public services – is linked to more worrying trends where 28 per cent believe we should ignore rules and institutions that get in the way of change – representing a worrying openness to authoritarian ideologies.

Equally troubling is that 40 per cent of Britons viewed the Unite the Kingdom Tommy Robinson marches as “a show of patriotism attended by people with valid concerns.” Once confined to extreme right wing circles, today one in three people (33 per cent) support calls for remigration and 31 per cent support ethnonationalism: the view that non-white people will never be as English/Scottish/Welsh as white people. 29 percent believe in the ‘Great Replacement’ theory, otherwise known as the White Replacement/White Genocide conspiracy theory. This cuts across political parties. While Reform supporters (54 percent) and Conservative supporters (26 per cent) hold the greatest support, almost a fifth of Labour supporters (19 per cent) do too. The cordon sanitaire which once kept extremist views to the fringes has been shattered and these views are increasingly polluting the mainstream.

The sheer scale of how fractured – and by extension vulnerable – our society is to malign and extremist activity must quickly sink in for the new government. Rather than being a fringe anxiety, 55 per cent believe Britain’s national identity is disappearing because of diversity – a view held across age groups, regions, and political affiliations, and where opinion is starkly divided between left and right. 41 per cent of people consider opposing immigration and multiculturalism to be patriotic; 40 per cent do not, evidencing just how polarised we are across many issues.

It is a mistake to assume that the broken contract is driven primarily by financial difficulties and that trust will improve if the cost of living crisis eases. 51 per cent of people who describe themselves as ‘very financially comfortable’ also believe the social contract is broken. The reality is, our country finds itself in the midst of contested narratives about national identity, Britishness and who this identity belongs to. This all points to a civilisational struggle gripping British society, where longstanding assumptions about pluralism and liberal democratic values are being contested like never before. These conditions represent fertile ground for both domestic extremists and hostile states.

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As our report shows, domestic extremists are in lockstep with hostile states where hateful narratives and conspiracy theories spread online and significantly overlap. Far-right extremists sharing anti-immigrant and racist content are bolstered by the same bile Russia is injecting into our country. Similarly, the Islamic Republic’s pro-regime propaganda aligns with that being shared with Islamist extremists at home. These destructive ideologies meet in the middle where they are deeply anti-Western and anti-democratic, sophisticated in tapping into existing grievances and where antisemitism is a common through-line.

On the back of the hateful riots in Belfast earlier this year, Tommy Robinson was in Russia meeting with Elon Musk’s father while he exhorted and directed his followers to unleash further destruction. This is a pattern we witnessed in Southampton this year, in Epping and elsewhere last year and during the riots following the murder of three young girls in Southport in 2024.Throughout the same period, Islamist extremists have co-opted the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, taking a highly visible role in numerous marches and using this to show support for terrorism and antisemitism.

There are widely held, legitimate grievances associated with the UK’s approach to immigration as well as to conflicts in the Middle East. However, these divisive issues are being successfully preyed upon by domestic and international actors to further polarise and sow division. And far too often, minority communities – especially Jews and Muslims – are at the sharp end of extremist narratives and campaigns. While the Labour government has rightly taken action to protect these communities, ever higher and thicker walls are not the answer. This is not the vision of a free and democratic society many of us envisage. It is, sadly, the opposite and we must accept the tall order of repairing the social contract and healing the wounds that divide us if we are to get to the root of hate.

Andy Burnham has rightly said we must “consider foreign policy, economic policy, security, social cohesion and British values as inextricably linked elements of the same strategic question.” Our report argues the same point. Disinformation, extremist activity, declining democratic resilience and hostile activity are not separate problems. They are interlocking challenges premised on a broken social contract and institutional distrust which is poisoning our society. Which is why we recommend a number of steps the government can proactively take.

Firstly, we need to reframe this challenge. Extremism, social cohesion, the strengthening of the social contract and democratic resilience must be formally designated as core national security and democratic defence priorities. This shift must be reflected in the National Security Strategy and Resilience Action Plans and in how resources are allocated across government. Delivery of this work must take a genuine whole of society approach as we see in many of the Nordic countries under their ‘Total Defence’ strategy.

Secondly, extremists are winning the narrative war not because their arguments are strong but because efforts to counter and provide alternative narratives are not being prioritised or invested in. A national programme to conceive and disseminate compelling alternative narratives, mobilising the ‘silent majority’, building alternative in-groups that compete with extremist communities and supporting local and national trusted voices, should be a central pillar of this new approach.\

Thirdly, and as we did during the Cold War, we must contest the anti-democratic propaganda and conspiracy theories being disseminated by our rivals, including by reinforcing the contrast between free societies and authoritarianism.

Fourthly, so much of the extremist content influencing our society – especially young people – is being spread with impunity online. The government should acknowledge that the current policy and regulatory framework for digital platforms and Artificial Intelligence is increasingly unsatisfactory. A new strategic approach that reflects their evolving impact on society, democracy and extremism should be developed.

Finally, we need to restore trust through agency and local collaborative democracy. The fundamental driver of susceptibility to extremism documented in our report is the experience of a broken social contract: of being overlooked, unheard and unprotected. Restoring trust requires giving people more genuine agency in decision- making at the local level, repairing the relationship between citizens and public services and rebuilding civic education.

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With Andy Burnham’s commitment to furthering devolution and his strong record of leadership in local government, he is ideally placed to begin repairing the social contract where it matters most – at the local level. The need for a new approach is not only about efficiency and economic growth, but also about defending our democracy and enhancing our national resilience.

Recognising that social cohesion is a national security asset and a core part of our national defence is the kind of thinking that will worry our adversaries. It will frustrate their efforts to debilitate our country and by extension to disassemble the historic alliances which defends us.

As Abraham Lincoln famously said, “A divided house cannot stand”. We must all work with the new prime minister to repair our social contract and confront the forces seeking to divide us. Only our adversaries will stand to benefit should we fail.

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