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Could there be another Bradford West?

April 5, 2012 10:34 am

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After the shock of last week’s by-election spanking in Bradford, eyes within the party have begun to look – with no little trepidation – to the future, and the capacity for such an outcome to be repeated. The question on everyone’s lips is – could there be another Bradford West?

Normally such concerns about by-elections would be easy to brush under the carpet, but as Labour MPs line up to stand as Mayors and PPCs, we’re looking at a glut of by-elections in Labour held seats on November 15th. Or as one shadow cabinet member told me last week, voters hate by-elections “and we’re about to inflict a load of unnecessary ones on them”.

So where does the potential for disaster lie? Manchester Central is a by-election that we know for sure is happening. On paper it’s safe, but in the febrile atmosphere of last Friday even that was being spoken of in sombre tones. Surely a loss there is unthinkable – yet I said that about Bradford West just 8 days ago. Nothing is being taken for granted now.

Yet the by-elections that the party machine really fears are in Birmingham. Two sitting Labour MPs are amongst the leading candidates to be the first mayor of the second city. Doughty street fighter Gisela Stuart retained her Edgbaston seat against the odds in 2010, defying a national swing to win through a combination of independence, hard work and organisational prowess (her organiser Caroline Badley is amongst the most highly respected in the party). Stuart’s seat is one the party are rightly concerned about, but more for the potential for it to slip into Tory hands than any fear of a Bradford West Mark II.

That honour is reserved for Birmingham Hodge Hill – Liam Byrne’s seat.

Ethnically diverse (and with a bad natured by-election still lingering in the memory), it’s a seat some Labour strategists fear the party would be vulnerable in were there a by-election – especially with Galloway Party chair and former Birmingham councillor Salma Yaqoob as a potential candidate. There aren’t many Galloways, the media chirpily proclaimed last week, but in Birmingham especially, she could be one.

If Byrne is selected as the party’s candidate for Mayor, the party could do with learning the mistakes of the 2004 by-election that first brought Byrne into parliament, as well as last week’s debacle. Eight years ago he was elected with a majority of only 460 in what should have been a “safe seat”. Turnout was poor, the electorate were turned off, and Labour snuck in under the wire. The campaign was about turning out motivated Labour voters amidst a poor turnout overall. Back then there was a protest vote surge for the Lib Dems. Right now, it’s a campaign that if repeated would be ripe for a “Bradford West-ing”.

So with the party approaching by-elections in Manchester, Hodge Hill or elsewhere in November, the machine must of course learn the lessons of Bradford West. But in turn it should also learn the lessons of Hodge Hill 2004. That kind of “race to the bottom” campaign only works if the threat comes exclusively from mainstream Westminster parties. As we learned to our cost last week, that isn’t always going to be the case. In future, we need to be brave enough to be positive, and engage with the electorate on their terms – or there’ll be more Friday morning by-election headaches to come.

Related posts:

  1. Bradford West candidate selected
  2. Miliband and McNicol message to staff following Bradford West defeat
  3. Could Labour lose Bradford West?
  4. 3 lessons from Bradford West
  5. Bradford West by-election liveblog
  • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

    I hope the current Hodge Hill Conservative incumbent is replaced by a Labour representative in November.

  • Tristan Price-Williams

    Yes. Theses by-elections are caused by MPs who have resigned the position that they were so very very “proud, honoured and humbled” to have been chosen for only 2 years ago, so that they can become little Borises, wielding real power, albeit that the big fish they may become will be in very small ponds.

    They are seriously bad ideas, and a good chance for the population to slap the main parties hard, if only for 3 years…or indeed, the way things are going, less.

    Correct me, please, if I’m mixing him up with someone else, but was Liam Byrne  not involved in introducing what is now seen by many as the Tory attack on sick people? I seem to remember that he asked a merchant banker to look into the benefits system, with the result that we have today. I’m sure he never intended for chemotherapy patients to be sent for jobready interviews, but I’m sure he will be remembered as the person who started the ball rolling.

    • AlanGiles

      Couldn’t agree more -  Liam Byrne is a disgusting little man, and more than that a coward and a hypocrite, since he now pretends to disagree with a quarter  of the Coalitions Welfare Reform Bill, to mollify Labour supporters when we all know it was he, Purnell and Tony McNulty who were so keen on the Freud report. He has said outright he agrees with “three quarters of the bill”.

      Byrne was also implicated in the expenses scandal. Should somebody who frankly cannot be trusted over money matters not be debarred from standing as a Mayoral candidate.

      Poor old Birmingham – it looks as if it will either be the hairy clown (Sion Simon) or the bald clown (Byrne). What have they done to deserve  it.

      • aracataca

        Back to the same old abuse Alan? I was just thinking how much better it was on here while you had your little ‘rest’ last week.

        • AlanGiles

          I’ve told you before – if you don’t like what I write don’t read it.

          • GuyM

            Mmmm, seems much like my message to you about my posts, but a message you seem to be unable personally to take on board.

            But I do find it hilarious the levels of abuse you dish out, only to react in shock and horror if anyone attacks your own little pet demographics in the same way.

          • AlanGiles

            The difference is Guy, I post under my full name, and when I say – for example – Byrne was an expenses fiddler it can be verified by looking at the details in the supplement the Daily Telegraph published. If Mr Byrne or anyone else thinks I am libelling them, they are free to seek their own remeidies, but they did not issue proceedings against the Telegraph, so either they have tacitly admitted guilt, or they are frightend to be probed too closely.

            And unlike you I don’t have a class war thing going with what you so revoltingly call “the lower classes” and I do not pretend I am a very important businessman, and spend all day slumming on LL. I am retired, but when I worked, my “work” did not include fantasising on a website in my employers time.

  • http://twitter.com/bencobley Ben Cobley

    Number One priority: get decent candidates, selected in a decent, fair way – if possible getting the wider community involved so the voters out there have a bit of ownership.

    Steve Richards speaks some real home truths in the article below, not least his mention of ‘a
    moribund Labour Party with sclerotic structures producing unsuitable candidates
    in several important elections’. He also says:

    ‘When I asked one senior Labour figure why the local
    party did not detect a swing to George Galloway last Thursday, he replied,
    “We don’t have strong local parties any more. On the ground we are
    dying.”’

    We need to reverse that process, and become a big welcoming tent for everyone, rather than an exclusive club whose members spend all their time fighting each other for control.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-a-chance-has-opened-up-for-miliband-but-can-he-take-it-7619126.html

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

      Thing is, if members aren’t allowed any real influence, what are the incentives to join ? We do appear to be moving so much more to the model of the American parties – effectively leaflet deliverers

      • http://twitter.com/bencobley Ben Cobley

        There will always be a way to maintain member influence. The main problem here is that there are not enough of them, and they are dropping away. We need to bring people in not shut them out.

        • AlanGiles

          Sadly Ben in 1994 the party was hi-jacked by a lot of supercilious little posh boys who were really Tory at heart, but managed to convince enough people they were Labour.

          So many genuine Labour voters saw the confidence trick – the wars, the greed, the sleaze (even though the dear leader promised to be purer-than-pure), that now Labour is seen as just an adjunct of the Colaition, at best, or Conservatives at worst.

        • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

          But there simply hasn’t been any attempt to do so – that’s why so many have dropped away and why few join. What are we offering them as members – the chance to spend every weekend delivering leaflets?

          • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=697126564 Paul Halsall

            The leaflets are lousy. The get chucked in with the curry house and pizza shop leaflets.  

            And some of us just cannot, physically, deliver leaflets.  I have an entire medical history to show why not.

          • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

            Exactly. Though our leaflets are pretty good, largely because we concentrate on informing people about what our councillors are doing and keeping people up to date with local issues which we can actually do something about

          • http://twitter.com/bencobley Ben Cobley

            I agree. I think it should be a priority between general elections to build up and rebuild the base, to put the word out continually that we want more people to get involved because without people we are, literally, nothing.

            I also believe in giving members more power – we are far too centralised in all sorts of ways, but combating centralisation means combating the institutionalised vested interests.

            We saw before the leadership election how the power to vote brings people into the tent (I was one of them). With online resources we could have rather more voting – give people the prospect of real participation and I reckon many will join, especially if they see an open and welcoming local party.

            As for MP selections, I’d prefer to keep it in house, but only if local parties publicise widely and well in advance to the  community that they will be selecting, and how. My suspicions are that many local parties either do not have the will or capacity to do that sort of thing though, so reluctantly I think the primary model is best – but only on condition that members get other powers elsewhere.

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=697126564 Paul Halsall

        Since I rejoined the Labour Party, and after it realised I was not actually living in Scotland I am now properly assigned to Bury South CLP.  

        Even though I have approached a local councillor (basically a good guy), I have still had no written or email communication from the local party asking me to attend a meeting.

        • Bob Piper

          At least you were able to join. In my neck of the Woods (Warley in Sandwell) applicants are actively discouraged from joining. Only one person has had the perseverance to get through the treacle pit of membership applications in the last 12 months. Applicants are told we are “in special measures” although no-one has had the courtesy of explaining to those of us already throwing away our subscription money why we are in these measures, what is “special” about them, and for how long we are obliged to stay in a state of limbo. The NEC members I have contacted don’t know, the Deputy Chairman of he Party refers me to Regional Office, and hey are too busy with elections to give USA simple answer.

          • Bob Piper

            Should read… They are too busy with elections to give us a simple answer.

            Bloody predictive text

          • treborc

            It’s easy to join you do not need to go even to a local meeting now, you can join online.

            The problem is when the head office fails to tell the local office of new members.

            In my area the local party sends out Christmas cards to members, I still get mine, ah yes and birthday cards, it was though it would show you were still interested in the member. It kept a line of contact

          • Peter Barnard

            @ treborc, Paul halsall

            ” … head office fails to tell the local office of new members.”

            That’s not an excuse these days, Robert. All CLP secretaries have access to the Labour Party’s MemberCentre facility – an on-line real-time register of all members in that secretary’s CLP. MemberCentre includes a facility to find new members, and contact details, from any date in the past (within reason) to the present.

            Unless there has been a glitch in MemberCentre, Paul, ie you are not shown “on the system” as a member of Bury South CLP, there is no excuse that the CLP secretary has not contacted you.

          • treborc

            They for sure did not tell us and whom ever fault it is, it should not happen

        • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

          That’s identical with my experience. As far as I can tell they don’t like the membership. And while I have canvassed on the doorstep in response to email appeals from other constituencies and have made financial donations I don’t think I’d bother attending local meetings now. My attitude to the local set up is: f**k ‘em.

  • Dominic Brown

    You’ve got me worried about Manchester Central now!

  • Duncan

    Out of interest, what happened to Rupa Huq’s article about Bradford West, and the associated discussion?

  • philhandyman24-7

    The illiberal Liberals are finished, the Tories are as big a liars as NuLabour and neither have any respect for peoples freedom of choice so hopefully there are hundreds of Bradford West’s which will give more Respect & UKIP candidates a chance to have a say in British politics-for everyone is heartily sick of the past 15 years crap!

    • treborc

       Only fifteen years, I can go back a few more years then that, you missed out all of Thatcher period and majors.

  • http://twitter.com/robertsjonathan Jonathan Roberts

    I think Galloway’s star quality was the main thing.  Like the SNP is nothing without Alex Salmond, Respect is nothing without George Galloway.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=697126564 Paul Halsall

      I think 
      Salma Yaqoob is a pretty impressive public speaker and it would be ludicrous to dismiss her.

      • http://twitter.com/robertsjonathan Jonathan Roberts

        With respect, my Dad’s a great public speaker but he’s not a celebrity and neither is she.  Galloway’s campaign was hugely helped by the general media fascination with him – she would not get the same level of attention and neither would any other Respect candidate.

        • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

          Galloway’s victory was hugely helped by the anti-austerity policies he presented.

          Salma Yaqoob has proved to be effective and following Galloway’s win any notable Respect candidate can be assured of significant media attention.

          • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

            She would definitely be able to do well in  a Birmingham seat. I think she is a good deal more impressive than Galloway in almost every way

          • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

            Interesting take here* by Salma Yaqoob on the Bradford event.
            Includes: “In the predominately white, middle-class ward of Clayton approximately 900 votes were cast for Respect compared to 40 for Labour.” !

            * http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2012/04/respect-british-bradford

          • http://www.facebook.com/matthew.blott Matthew Blott

            I heard her say that but of it could of course be complete bullshit.

      • Winston_from_the_Ministry

        I like Salma.

         I might not always agree with her, but she manages to be ballsy yet reasonable at the same time. And comes across as having integrity, passion, intelligence and determination.

        • Janiete

          I used to agree with you about Salma Yaqoob but the way she has defended Galloway’s use of gutter politics has convinced me it’s just a public persona.

          I listened to her speaking on R4 Woman’s Hour. She claimed Labour have been taking away women’s votes, allowing others to use their postal votes. If this has happened, to the benefit of any party, of course it is totally wrong and should be punished.

          But she didn’t explain why menfolk willing to do this on behalf of Labour would behave any differently when they switched allegience to Respect. Just seemed to me to be a party political smear.

          • Winston_from_the_Ministry

            Oh I’m not defending her views or suggesting I agree with them, I just like her persona.

            Thats the thing though, the bit that allows people like George in.

            People make decisions with their hearts, pretty much every time emotion will trump reason. Every good marketer knows this.

          • Duncan Halll

            The implication was that men (menfolk?) – in the cases referred to – remained Labour voters.

  • Rob

    Bradford West was, and will remain, rare, but not unique. Everywhere that the party has condoned, or even encouraged, communitarianism, factionalism and even outright fraud – made easy through postal voting – we are at risk.

    If you allow the politics of Pakistan to flourish without question, as in many northern cities, then the end result could be another victory for the party or candidate that mobilises best a bloc vote.

    Everywhere you divide voters up by race and religion – and I am thinking very much about the odious Ken Livingstone here – you make it more likely that voters will begin to see themselves only through the prism of race and religion. This is dangerous territory for anyone; for a party of the left it is a massive wake up to call to cease pandering to intolerent identity politics. 

    • http://twitter.com/bencobley Ben Cobley

      Communalism not communitarianism! The latter is one of the nice parts of the Left; the former is sometimes used by the nastier parts of it.

      Strange comment too on “the politics of Pakistan”, as if Pakistan is not allowed any politics. If certain practices are taking place within the Labour Party, then they are the politics of the Labour Party.

      Except for those issues, I agree completely – identity politics is a road to ruin.

      • GuyM

        If you seriously think that factionalism based upon islamification of parts of the political process in the UK is ok, then get ready for a resurgence of the BNP in certain Labour areas.

        • Rob

          Guy, I do worry about the return of the BNP. That is why I despair at the stupidty of some who claim to be on the left who promote the very divisions that we should be vehemently opposing.

          Ben, Pakistan’s politics are not really a model to follow, anywhere. The Labour party, especially, has all too often condoned clan politics, wherby “community leaders” deliver votes en masse for Labour. This affects Labour more than orther parties because of the high number of urban seats, but it does not excuse it.

          What i also menat about the “politics of Pakistan” is that Galloway focussed his campaign on foreign polciy to a degree that is utterly alien to, how shall i put it, indigenous voters. His campaign, and the result, empahsised how unlike the rest of the country Bradford West was.

          fair point about communalism, Ben, but the main point is that the Left needs finally to wake up and see that promoting ethnic division might win a couple of seats like Bradford West, but will cause long term, and significant damage to social cohesion.  Time to move away from this dead end, and quickly.   

          • http://twitter.com/bencobley Ben Cobley

            Hi Rob. Like Guy, I don’t think you read my post properly, or at all – I
            actually agree with you on the general point you are making completely
            and have strongly criticised identity politics myself in some articles
            recently.

            See http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2012…

          • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

            I’m not sure that anyone can instruct people on what issues they find important. It appears that for Muslims, foreign policy which relates to particular Muslim countries is important – the whole point is that people are different and we are not all the same, nor have the same identities.  I don’t think that uniformity is something which can be enforced on anyone

          • GuyM

            That may well be the case, but for any political party to base foriegn policy on the concerns of an Islamic umma rather than Britiain’s best interests would be madness.

          • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

            I think foreign policy should be based on what is right, which in the main means not involving ourselves in wars which have little to do with us, and ensuring that countries which, for example, constantly defy UN resolutions, are not given active support.
            Britain should generally be doing a lot less in terms of foreign policy and stop pretending we want a ‘major power’ status. Its neither affordable nor realistic

          • GuyM

            Personally I thought removing the Taliban, Saddan and Ghadaffi were all “right”, as would removing Assad and the Iranian leadership.

            I wouln’t necessarily conclude all of those actions as “wise” however, nor the lack of planning for what “happened next”.

            Unlike you Mike I think Britain still is a major power, stronger than well over 95% of other nations and I’m also quite comfortable with the UK confronting Islam whenever and wherever its presence is in conflict with western ideals of liberty, secular law and freedoms we take for granted in the UK.

          • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

            I don’t wish to be the worlds policeman. Not feasible. And it doesn’t work. Afghanistan will not be delivered as a liberal democracy: in fact it will be much the same as when we entered – controlled by a mixture of local warlords and the Taliban

          • AlanGiles

            ” I think Britain still is a major power, ”

            Doesn’t surprise me. Lst week you thought the Daily Express was a left wing newspaper (I believe Mr McKistry is still  having to use his smelling salts!)

            Britain hasn’t been a “major power” for years (except when the USA lets us), and the sooner we stopped pretending otherwise, the better off – in every respect – we will be.

          • Hugh

            In that case the list of major powers is very short.

          • AlanGiles

            Yes, Hugh. It is. Very. And we should stop our deluded conceit that we are one of them.
            I do hope BTW that “Guy” is not going to become our defence expert?.

            It is hard enough to cope with his fantasy that he is a captain of industry (Alan Sugar without the charm), don’t tell me he now has ambitions to become  Storming Norman Shwarpkopf?

            I have visions of Guy telling us about his terrible experience on the Normandy landing (the girls father came out!) :-)

          • GuyM

            Take your own advice from earlier and not respond?

          • Tristan Price-Williams

            I think Cameron recently boasted that we were the forth largest spender on armed forces, when trying to sell the UK to Scotland. Strange that the man has absolutely no clue what makes us tick. Most of us would rather the pot holes were fixed than that we had nuclear weapons or could blow much bigger countries away. And yet for all that spending it seems that if Argentina decided to take las Malvinas, we couldn’t defend them. Some waste of money. Of course so much of it is frittered away like sand in Mali on things that don’t work, or that are no use to us.

          • Hugh

            Since most analysts seem to put the UK as
            the fourth or fifth most powerful military force in the world, it’s not so hard
            to see how that delusion might have come about.

          • GuyM

            4th biggest defence spend

            6th/7th biggest economy

            Nuclear weapons

            UN security council perm member

            One of the very few nations on earth able to fight an offensive war, rather than just engage in peacekeeping

            5th biggest navy (4th if you count for modern technology) and with the new Carriers one of the few nations able to “project power”.

            If you assume there is one “super power”, then by all comparative measures at the moment the UK is most definitely a “major power”.

            It is simple left wing hatred of the concept of being a major power that makes you write such nonsense about the UK

          • AlanGiles

            “It is simple left wing hatred of the concept of being a major power that makes you write such nonsense about the UK”

            Is it, Guy?. If you say so.  Of course you would know best because you know everything about everything in that little dream world of yours,  where you rule supreme in big business.

            . Still not working. which explains why you have all the time in the world to write the nonsense you spout on LL?

          • GuyM

            Definitely not working at 8:30pm at night, but thanks for the concern, my employer is quite happy with my weeks output.

            But back to your point…. no answer I see?

        • http://twitter.com/bencobley Ben Cobley

           Err, what?

          • treborc

            Did the BNP win anything in Bradford west, must of missed that one.

          • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

            The Democratic Nationalists received 344 votes – they’re one of the parties (there’s quite a few) to emerge from Griffin’s mismanagement/destruction of the BNP.

            I’ve read several reports describing how solidly white working class wards in Bradford West voted very strongly for Galloway/Respect.

          • GuyM

            I would have thought that one or two similar results with outspoken pro Islamic MPs getting elected would be music to the ears of the BNP.

            Respect and Galloway push the extremes of the political spread on one side…. it would be foolish not to think that it might cause a push on other sides as well.

          • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

            “I would have thought… ”

            But you didn’t… doh!

          • treborc

            Of course they would I suspect they are like the rest of us, all wondering where the hell is the Labour party.

            So far  all I hear is a middle class party talking middle class politics, to a country struggling to cope, I doubt to many see them selves as middle class at the moment.

          • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

            You’re lucky – you’ve got Welsh Labour, I’m stuck with England’s New Labour surrender tendency and their fixation on the swing voters of S.E. marginals.

          • treborc

            sadly they still have powers over us, like welfare

          • Winston_from_the_Ministry

            He’s saying there would be a resulting backlash.

          • http://twitter.com/bencobley Ben Cobley

            Yeah I know; I just didn’t say/think “that factionalism based upon islamification of parts of the political process in the UK is ok”. No idea where he got that from.

          • GuyM

            No, but implying that the “politics of Pakistan” is an acceptable part of the Labour party, when Pakistani politics is very firmly linked to islamic opinion, belief and in places fundamentalist belief would surely lead to a threat of factionalism both within Labour and within Labour’s core vote along the lines of islamification.

          • http://twitter.com/bencobley Ben Cobley

            That’s a very strange response, I don’t really know where to start with that one. Probably best just to say that you seem to be arguing with someone you have invented in your head – is certainly not me – and leave it at that. Pack up and move on to the next misunderstanding.

    • Redshift

      “If you allow the politics of Pakistan to flourish without question, as in many northern cities”
      This sentence couldn’t be more bizarre if it wanted to. Which northern cities do you have in mind? 

      • Rob

        Bradford, also certain parts of Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham and London (not all “northern”, I know).

        If you haven’t noticed how clan politics, family elders – always men – voting for the entire family, candidates winning according to who they are rather than the party (and values?) they represent (see election results in Bradford since 1997 and Tower Hamlets today), then you have clearly had your eyes shut.

        Ignoring postal vote fraud and other abuses does not make anyone progressive. It means they are stupid. Pandering to the ultra conservative traditions of groups who get the benefits (literally) of living in Britian but feel no obligation to change their cultural outlook is extremely damaging to the country as a whole and the Left in particular.
         

        • jaime taurosangastre candelas

          One thing Labour should do instantly is to drop the opposition to the proposals to move from a household to an individual voter registration.  Better would be to support the ending of postal votes, and move to a system where every voter has the finger inked after voting.  Proper, transparent elections, as we as a nation ask other countries in Africa or Asia to do.

          The opposition to individual registration makes Labour look stupid, and supportive of a cosy system where achieving a Labour-positive result is all that is important, which perpetuates cultural values that are the opposite of democratic

          This male-dominated patriarchy has probably done more to damage the cause of women’s equality than anything Harriet Harman comes up with with her misandrist agenda (unless the beneficiary is her husband of course).

          The whole thing appears of institutional hypocrisy, and I think the voters of the country know it.

          How many seats do Labour “buy” each election with rigged postal votes, and blind eyes being turned to the delivery of votes by “community leaders” in exchange to perpetuation of a culture which is deeply non-British?  5? 10? 20?  

          • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

            Galloway has written to the Electoral Commission regarding possible intimidation in the Bradford West by-election, here’s an excerpt from Galloway’s letter:

            “It is once again apparent in the Bradford West by-election that postal voters are being pressurised into voting for a particular candidate through friends and family and in a way that offends both against the spirit and the law regarding free and fair elections. The postal vote on demand system remains fundamentally and irreparably flawed because it entails the loss of the secret ballot.”

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            Unusually, we agree.  While George Galloway may claim that, and it may be true, I am in no doubt at all that he himself used this corrupt little reality to cause the scale of the swing that brought him into the winning seat.

            Just because in this case, both sides do it does not make it right.  All it indicates is in Bradford West and Tower Hamlets, there are factions within the community who both employed the same tactics.

            I wonder if anyone would write an article on either LL or a Labour-sympathethic national newspaper that is called “Have we got a problem of basic democracy in some of our constituencies?”, and then provide a relentlessly data driven article.

            I can imagine the semi-institutional reaction and cries of “racism” to the author.  But yet, is it not worth investigating?  There is more than enough circumstantial and documentary evidence that these practices exist.

          • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

            I’m not aware of expressing an opinion on this matter, as yet. I was interested to see that you are in agreement with Galloway and now, as well as agreeing with him, you accuse him of corruption.

            However, I support the postal vote option as it provides those unable to leave the house with an opportunity to vote.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            My agreement was too hasty.  You have not of course placed your opinion.  I read too quickly and assumed your report of Galloway’s letter was in itself an acknowledgement that these practices exist, so my apologies.  To be clear, Galloway alleges specifics.

            It would be interesting to compare the numbers of those who exercise a postal vote out of genuine mobility needs, and those whose votes are exercised on behalf of them through dictatorialism.

            If it gets to the stage where “for no real reason postal votes” outnumber “for real reason” postal votes, we have a problem that is not addressed by continuing to allow fraud in the aim of assisting those in genuine need.  Other solutions should be found.

            I cannot immediately find it, but there was an article in a paper for the May 2010 election which the electoral returning officers reported the proportion of postal votes in their constituencies.  In most constituencies, it was fairly low.  There were however about 30-40 constituencies – all urban, all reasonably poor, and all with well above the average of ethnic minorities where postal voting seemed to be about 5 times more popular than it is elsewhere in the country.  I will look for it with Google.

            I recall one example given in Bristol where a single address had more than 20 postal votes filled in by the head of the household.  It was a 3 bedroom terrace house.

          • Bill Lockhart

            Jaime, don’t worry- the male heads of Pakistani households where obviously suspect multiple postal votes are registered have promised to give re-assuring answers in the extremely unlikely event that any official cares little enough about his/her career prospects to ask any awkward questions about fraud in Muslim-majority wards.

          • AlanGiles

            At times LabourList resembles a home for retired crusty old Tory army officers, complete with xenophobia and the worst sort of prejudices. Why such people bother to come on to a left wing site, I can’t imagine – I suppose times hangs heavily with them, poor souls, and they need an audience for their rantings and ramblings.

          • Bill Lockhart

            In my case, former Labour voter. Never fret, I’m sure there are plenty more where I came from.

          • AlanGiles

            Jaime I begin to think you are a new Labourite in the closet.

            You sound like the numerous New Labourites who have tried to dismiss George Galloway’s win by implying illegal practices were at play.

            As I said to one of NLs more hysterical cheerleaders the other day, this might wash if the vote had been closer, but a 10,100 majority?. Please, let’s not get carried away!

            Why did Labour lose?

            Because they took their core vote for granted (Ed had already planned his “victory parade” and briefed the press the day befoee (Victory parade at a certain place Friday 30th March 7.45 a.m).

            Like Blair, the leadership feel that left-wing voters have nohere else to go. By now they should be disabused of that notion (Greens, Respect etc)

            and EM feels that Greggs pasties and football matches were more important and merited use of his time rather than meetings about the NHS.

            To be frank, I think the leadership has – to use an expression of a Scottish friend of mine – been cruising for a bruising for a very long time, and as the shadow cabinet is still full of Blair/Brown rejects, it looks tired and uninspired and, frankly, irrelevant.

          • treborc

            Ok lets say the postal votes were flawed do you really think ten thousand of them.

        • treborc

          What your talking about here is Wales and I suspect Scotland, in my family through my mothers side was my great grandfather totally and fully labour, my grandfather my relatives, I can still remember Chapel on a Sunday Pub and then talking about Rugby or Football and the Politics, most family in the 1950/60/70 belong to a NUM lodge , and you basically voted Labour

          The Muslim I’m sure have their own way of working through who they vote for this time they did not vote labour maybe due to a war, maybe a warning I do not know.

          But all this rubbish about postal votes, your way over the top

          • Bill Lockhart

            “Five men, including two former councillors, were today jailed for
            their parts in a failed postal votes scam intended to get a Conservative
            candidate elected in the 2005 general election.A judge heard
            that a newspaper investigation and police inquiry had unearthed a plot
            to get the Tory candidate Haroon Rashid elected in the marginal Bradford
            West seat using hundreds of fraudulent postal vote applications.”

            http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/sep/06/men-jailed-attempted-postal-vote-fraud

            “I’ve come from Uzbekistan to Blackburnistan,” says Craig Murray,
            Britain’s former ambassador to the central Asian republic who is
            campaigning to unseat the Foreign Secretary. He left the Foreign Office
            after speaking out against the Government’s use of intelligence obtained
            by torture.

            “This is very much a Labour rotten borough,” he said. “There is a
            nexus of the police, the authorities and business – if we were in the
            Soviet Union, you would say mafia.”

            The jailing of a Blackburn city councillor – an Asian Muslim
            representing Labour – for rigging postal votes in the May 2002 local
            elections has failed to silence the rumour mill. Voters in the Muslim
            community, which makes up almost a quarter of the electorate, say now
            they are being strong-armed by mosque leaders and councillors to vote
            Labour. The number of postal votes registered in Blackburn is 20,000,
            compared to 7,600 in 2001.”

            http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/straws-seat-is-a-hotspot-of-postal-vote-fraud-claims-6146886.html

          • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

            You’ll be supporting the Respect victory in Bradford West and Galloway’s complaint to the Electoral Commission re postal votes?

          • Bill Lockhart

            I support a thorough overhaul of the postal voting concession involving a large reduction in the number of postal ballots made available. Galloway’s posturing humbug on the subject is of no interest to me except as an example of his hypocrisy.

          • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

            You oppose him even when you’re in agreement with him.

            I’m not sure how, or if, the irrational can be satisfactorily accommodated within political life but you certainly demonstrate it’s presence.

          • Bill Lockhart

            “A judge investigating vote-rigging in Birmingham’s
            local elections has ruled there was widespread fraud and has ordered new
            elections.

            Election Commissioner Richard Mawrey QC upheld allegations of postal
            fraud relating to six seats won by Labour in the ballot of 10 June last
            year…
            The first petition was brought by the People’s Justice
            Party (PJP) against three representatives of the Bordesley Green ward,
            Shafaq Ahmed, Shah Jahan and Ayaz Khan…
            The second petition was raised by Liberal Democrat
            supporters against three Aston representatives, Mohammed Islam, Muhammed
            Afzal and Mohammed Kazi…

            During the hearings, which were held at the Birmingham and Midland
            Institute and lasted four weeks, Judge Mawrey heard how the trio were
            caught operating a “vote-rigging factory”.

            The police described how they found Mr Islam, Mr Afzal and Mr Kazi
            handling unsealed postal ballots in a deserted warehouse in the city.

            The petitioners also accused the city’s returning officer and chief
            executive Lin Homer of failing to discharge her duties in accordance
            with electoral law.

            Judge Mawrey said that Ms Homer “threw the rule book out of the window”
            to deal with overwhelming numbers of postal vote application forms
            received.”

            http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_midlands/4406575.stm

  • Dave Postles

    In political terms, the Tories will be able to claim that a double-dip recession has been avoided, as the indicators are that there is a small recovery in GDP in Q1 2012.  It will be difficult to counter this argument, but not impossible, because (a) it has been manipulated and (b) it is illusory.  On (a), the panic petrol buying in the last week of March has had, it is reported, a considerable impact on GDP figures for Q1.  The opposition must respond that these figures be stripped out to reveal a more accurate picture.  On (b), the indicators are, seemingly, associated with restocking of inventories, not order books.  These will be complex arguments to get across, but the petrol one should be within everyone’s experience.  The LG elections will take place in this economic context.
    As a countervailing phenomenon, as the IFS analysis commissioned by Labour, reveals, it is precisely in April that lower-income families will realize the effects of the reduction of benefits.  It will be necessary to appeal to and get that vote out.

    • GuyM

      So if the OBR says there was growth the best thing to do is spin a bit?

      Conversely bad weather (last year) that prevented people spending was a crappy excuse? Nice to see consistency, but as most people know you can’t trust Labour with anything financial so who cares what spin you put on it.

      • Dave Postles

         1 Nothing to do with the OBR.  It will be the ONS.
        2 It’s not spin – factual analysis.
        3 I said nothing about Labour on that point – ‘the opposition.

        Your comments are as feeble and inaccurate as usual.

  • http://twitter.com/bencobley Ben Cobley

    Hi Rob. Like Guy, I don’t think you read my post properly, or at all – I actually agree with you on the general point you are making completely and have strongly criticised identity politics myself in some articles recently – see http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2012/03/13/labours-identity-problems-go-much-deeper-than-all-women-shortlists/

  • Labour Member London

    Yes, it’s important to get a campaign right, get the tone right, get the form of words right, get the representation right, have good leadership.

     But all of these things, important as they are , are constructed upon a foundation of policy. And at the moment we appear to be building upon sand. Where are the policies that would reflect the interests, truly, of the people we ask to turn out and vote Labour? I for one cannot see them. It’s more of the same but not quite so nasty. And it’s not good enough.

    We would not expect, of course, more radical policies to emanate from the top, brought down to us from the mountain, inscribed in stone. They can only really emerge from pressure from below.

    This brings us to the second problem. Do we have the democratic structures in our movement that can translate aspirations of the people at the base into a political programme. Barely. They are greatly undermined though not entirely gone.

    My own view, for what it’s worth, is that we need a means to put policy making back in the hands of the membership. We need to devise and articulate policies that reflect the broad interests of ordinary people. And we also need to put together that other coalition – a coalition of the common people – which is what the Labour Party, for much of its history, has been, but which at the moment, is not.

  • aracataca

    Apart from Galloway and Yaqoob are there any other personalities in Respect?. If it is the case that there are none then the contagion of Respect should be contained. While Galloway offers voters a kind of car crash between Marxism and Islamism Yaqoob offers straightforward Islamism to voters. The only serious problems that Respect might present to Labour is if they step out of their current very narrow demographic and into say wider class politics. Hitherto, they have not shown either the capacity or proclivity to do so.  

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

      That’s where you are wrong – Yacqoob offers a strong socialist stance and she actually doesn’t compromise on women’s or gay rights

      • Rob

        Mike, Yacqoob IS NOT SOCIALIST. She is an islamist who cannot bring herself to condemn the killing of British troops in Afghanistan. Islamism is the antithesis of socialism and social democracy. It is anti women, anti gay, anti secular and anti democracy. Are you really that stupid that you cannot see this?

        Islam always compromises on womens’ rights and gay rights. What really depresses me is useful idiots like you supporting them.

        • GuyM

          Absolutely bloody right.

          I can not understand for the life of me how left wingers who are so vocal in support of womens rights, gay rights and anti Church of England in the UK can manage to completely ignore the way Islam operates around the world.

          Until my wife and daughters have the same rights as men in some of these Islamist nations as they do in the UK, along with basic human rights, then Islam is in the way it operates as a governing force a represssive ideology not worthy of support.

        • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

          Islamist? Well, I recall seeing Salma Yaqoob on Question Time saying she’d be proud to have her sons in the British Army.

          Also, I’ve just checked the Respect webpage (the webpage of the party led by Yaqoob) to find this:

          “ It [Respect] was formed because of the need for a left-wing alternative to the three established parties – New Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrats.
          None of those parties represent the interests of ordinary working-class people or those who want a fairer, more equal and just society.”

          If you want to oppose Respect then you should make it your business to properly understand them, not go of into the fantasy land of wild imagining and terminal delusion – if you do that there’ll be many more Bradford Wests.

          • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone
          • Rob

            And no more fucking Labour governments.

            Listen to her on the Today programme last week. She is an Islamist, Islam is incompatible with everything social democrats should believe in and Respect is equally incompatible.

            I understand only too well that Respect appeals to no-one outside Islamic Forum Europe and pathetic pseudo lefty romantics who don’t actually understand politics 

          • AlanGiles

            Rob It is a great pity so many public lavatories were closed down, and bus stations now have CCTV, because until a few years ago little boys like you used to love writing four letter words in and on  them in  felt tipped pens - just like you have above. Made them feel really “clever” and “big”

            Strange how so many right-wingers like gutter langauge – especially the “F” word – perhaps because in real life they are unable to actually do it

        • Duncan Halll

          Salma Yaqoob is a socialist who also happens to be Muslim. Truthfully, I wish she could be a Labour candidate – she is very impressive.

      • aracataca

        Mike (I like a lot of what you say on this site). I didn’t say that she was a Muslim extremist but the primary motivation behind her political commitment is her religious faith. Is is a relatively benign interpretation of that faith, ie she is more interested in running soup kitchens for the homeless rather than  endorsing the killing of gays. However, she articulates a faith based politics which is quite a distance from the kind of secularist democratic socialism that I support. Galloway of course has been filmed praising the dispenser of nerve gas on his own people ( Saddam) and has been filmed on an Iranian TV station disgorging anti-Semitic bile. 

        • http://twitter.com/gonzozzz dave stone

          “the primary motivation behind her political commitment is her religious faith”

          Just like Tony Benn. And a personal hero of mine: Dietrich Bonhoeffer.

  • BNP

    Time to ditch the white, working class and harness the Labour vote to the fastest growing demographic in Britain. A Muslim leader of the Labour Party and Pakistani shortlists for all Labour candidates campaigning openly for Sharia law and the persecution of Jews and homosexuals alike. The only Labour ideal to be retained being the opposition to the BNP and all they stand for. 

    • Labour Member London

      A bit of goading from a rightwing nationalist I guess. Fascist thought has always been characterised by a rejection of reason and a revelling in emotion regardless of truth or reality. This comment from ‘BNP’ should be allowed to stand as a testament to the poverty of thought on the extreme right.

      The best response to this sort of thing is policies that reflect the interests of all working people, regardless of race or creed – and that includes of course the white working class.

      • SaucyJack11

        Shame it’s only white fascists you hate, and not Islamists.

        • Labour Member London

          Fascism is a political movement – and I certainly do oppose it (regardless of colour).

          Islam is a religion, as you know, not a political movement, and I respect Islam as I do other religions.

          There are political Islamists on the extreme wing whose views have things in common with fascism and the same is true of extreme Christians, Jews, Buddhists and Hindus. Politically I am opposed to such views.

          Extreme Islamists untypical of the vast majority of Muslims, but the fascist right like to lump them all together.

          The fascist right has often been associated with religious views of course - sometimes neo-Paganism (like the German Nazis) sometimes Christianity. (And that doesn’t mean that we should brand Christians or neo-Pagans as Nazis of course).

          • Bill Lockhart

            The usual woolly left-liberal moral-equivalence claptrap. What, statistically, is the proportion of British Muslims who believe that homosexuals making love in private is an acceptable part of a modern society?  None. Zero. 0%.
            On gay rights and gender equality the whole of Islam is “the extreme wing”

            “Islam is a religion, as you know, not a political movement”

            is simply wrong. Islam is a complete way of life and societal structure which incorporates and is ultimately supposed to supplant politics, the justice system and all existing rights and freedoms. It is unique amongst major world religions in this overweening ambition, and uniquely dangerous to democracy as a result- especially when treated as “just another religion” by white “progressives” desperate to score PC brownie points.

          • Labour Member London

            Bill is simply wrong on a number of counts – it’s really just a tirade of prejudice against one religion.

            I know Muslims who are not prejudiced against homosexuals, so I know Bill is wrong in his statistics.

            It is an extremely simplistic view of Islam and the writer seems to see it as homogeneous and monolithic. It is neither.

      • aracataca

        It’s just abuse and nothing else and beneath contempt.

    • Jeff_Harvey

      “A Muslim leader of the Labour Party and Pakistani shortlists for all Labour candidates campaigning openly for Sharia law and the persecution of Jews and homosexuals alike.”

      When did the BNP become champions of  homosexual and Jewish citizens?

      • Daniel Speight

         About time the BNP came out of the closet. Good on you fellows.

      • Daniel Speight

         About time the BNP came out of the closet. Good on you fellows.

      • Daniel Speight

         About time the BNP came out of the closet. Good on you fellows.

        • Jeff_Harvey

          It seems they’re coming out of the Synagogue too! Oy vey!

  • ux

    another bradford waiting to happen unless labour start talking to the unemployed and low income people instead of massaging the squeezed middle.
    Ed may be genuine (?) Balls may be sincere ((?) but they are not convincing many people.
    polls show anti-tory rather than pro-labour feeling

  • Jeremy_Preece

    Why did Bradford
    happen, in a single word “leadership”, or more specifically, lack of
    Labour leadership.

    Under Ed we have said
    that Labour wants to accept the blame for the whole of the UK’s economic
    woes and has allowed the whole blame for the world wide banking crisis to be
    pinned onto Labour.

    Under Ed we are
    “sending the activists naked to the doorsteps” and saying,
    “hello voter, please vote for us, we want to accept all of the blame for
    the whole of the everything that is wrong with the UK, but we are distancing ourselves
    from this by cutting ourselves adrift”.

    Then we can add “it
    is too early for us to have thought of any policies yet, or ever really
    understand where we are on the political spectrum. But please vote for us
    anyway, and then at some point in the future we will let you know what we stand
    for, when we have enough confidence in ourselves to decide”.

    Finally we can add
    “please forget that most of you, (the voters of the UK), believe
    that the leader of the Labour Party is not and never will be prime minister
    material.”

    Oh let’s see now, why
    didn’t we win?

    And by the way, we cannot
    deny that leadership is at least as important as the candidate. Did the people
    of Bradford reject the candidate or the party
    leader?

    Also note that the
    Conservatives and the LibDems also lost ground, so in a way it is also a vote
    of disaffection with politics as a whole. In such an environment you will get
    apparent wildcard winners, because they are seen as different from the rest.

    Here are a few of my own personal observations and opinions.

    We need to get our
    reputation for handling the economy back by nailing the myth that Brown caused
    the banking crisis, we need to establish our own Labour alternative. To some
    extent (but not enough) Ed Balls has been arguing that economic stagnation is
    the only outcome of the austerity measures that the coalition is putting in
    place. This chocking off of growth is as much a threat to the triple A rating
    of the UK
    as the deficit (IMF has warned Osborne on this, and he is too arrogant to take
    note). Plus when we have people working and paying tax we have revenue for
    paying the deficit. (Win-win).

    Labour is for the
    majority of the UK,
    perhaps not much for the top 10%, but for the middle and working classes. We
    need to have a coherent political stance and a few flagship policies. Bradford has shown what happens when we just go in
    offering nothing but the name Labour.

    There are too many policy
    lose ends. On these pages we see Labour members arguing about the sick and
    unemployed, and I think that the way forward is to admit that in times of high employment
    we want people working where possible. Yes those who can should work in real,
    properly paid jobs, not in scam work experience, low quality, no prospect,
    unfairly low paid jobs. At the moment we have people loosing their jobs and
    unemployment rising. Under these conditions we cannot expect long term
    unemployed to find work. So our policy should be according to the market, i.e.
    everyone who can work works when the opportunity is there. As for those who are
    sick, if they genuinely cannot work then they deserve to be protected. But this
    is not the policy of Labour, I don’t think. Like so many other areas of policy
    we come over as muddled and divided.

    In terms of alienation of
    Muslim votes, all I can say is that I am a Roman Catholic and I find that the
    secular atheism is rampant in Labour and the other parties is very aggressive.
    We have had local authorities trying to ban Christmas in on the grounds that it
    would offend Muslims. And in these cases we have found that the Muslims have
    been our friends in defending it. That is real tolerance and diversity.

    You see there is real tolerance and
    diversity, and there is sham. Real tolerance and diversity is where anyone of
    any religion and none can get on in society on an equal basis. Those who attack
    religion are going to find themselves unacceptable to the communities that they
    attack. Intolerance of religious belief is wrong, it is the opposite of
    tolerant and it is the opposite of diverse. It is also a really stupid road for
    any political party to go down and guaranteed to loose support. It is often
    these very religious views that lead people to support a particular party, and
    many Christian denominations have inspired people to become involved with the
    Labour movement. Secular atheism within the UK and within Labour is one of many
    different views and does not have overarching supremacy. I suspect that this is
    also a major turn off for Muslim voters as well as Christian and other religious
    views.

    So there are my thoughts about why Bradford went the way that it did, and why Labour needs to really focus. I have already said enough about leadership, let’s hope that we don’t have to loose a general election before people take note.

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