Exclusive LabourList polling shows public back Miliband’s “Plan for Britain’s Future” – and support his call for UN vote on Syria

23rd September, 2014 9:01 pm

ed miliband scotland referendum

Initial polling on Ed Miliband’s Conference speech shows that the public are largely supportive of Labour’s policy announcements. Carried out by Survation, this exclusive polling for LabourList shows that while many in the media (and some of those writing on LabourList) have been critical of today’s speech, the substance behind it is proving popular.

Syria is obviously dominating the news – and the polling suggests the public backs Miliband’s preferred course of action with regards to ISIL. Today in his conference speech, he stated that the UN Security Council must have their say on international action. 38% of those polled by Survation today agreed with Miliband that “the UK should only become involved in this action following a UN Security Council Resolution”. That compares to 18% who want to see the UK join in the US action immediately, and 27% who say the UK shouldn’t join the action at all.

And here’s what the poll said people thought about today’s policy offers:

The NHS: Today’s big policy – that NHS spending will be funded by taxes on tobacco companies and mansions, and closing tax loopholes – is the most popular policy polled, with 72% of the public in favour, compared to just 12% who were opposed. That suggests that if Miliband is able to capitalise on this in the coming days, he could make headway. It was particularly popular with Labour (81%) and Lib Dem (84%) voters from 2010 – the group that Miliband needs to keep together to win in 2015.

Minimum wage: There has been some consternation among Labour members at Conference that the pledge to raise the minimum wage to £8 by 2020 does not go far enough. There are particular worries that unless interest rates go up, inflation will outstrip this rise, making it a real terms pay cut for those who earn the least. However, Ed Miliband changed the language in his speech slightly to say that it would be “above £8” – and the public are wholeheartedly behind efforts to raise the minimum wage – with 68% of those polled backing such a rise.

Housing: Miliband today promised to make house building a top priority and by 2025 “build as many homes the UK needs” doubling the number of first-time buyers. 50% of the public backed these plans, including nearly half of all 2010 Tory voters.

Miliband also received support from the public for plans to decentralise power from Westminster to the regions, employment rights for the self-employed, breaking up the banks,taking carbon emissions out of the economy by 2025 and apprenticeships – you can read the full tables of our exclusive Survation polling here, and we’ll have further analysis of the poll in the next 24 hours.

Survation interviewed 1,037 members of the public online to gauge reactions to the main contents of Ed Miliband’s 10 year plan announced in his speech. These were more targets or aspirations for the party than concrete policy proposals; consequently the poll is less about support or opposition for specific policies than about how well Miliband has managed to identify themes and statements of purpose which resonate with the general public, upon which future policy can later be built successfully.

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  • itdoesntaddup

    Now we understand the speech. It was driven by the few policies that got positive poll results.

    • jaydeepee

      You’re right, he should have given a speech driven by all the unpopular stuff.That would have been better received.

      • itdoesntaddup

        You’re right, it would.

  • reformist lickspittle

    Pesky voters not falling in with the MSM agenda, then. Damn them 😉

  • treborc1

    We will know how much support he gets the election is not that far away.

  • David Lewis

    I don’t know how they made up the sample but everyone I have met has begged to differ.

    Most not so much horrified by the predictable 1950’s policies but horrified by him.

    • Redshift1

      I think that says more about you than it does the poll.

      You don’t know ANYONE who thinks spending more on the NHS by taxing the super-rich and tobacco companies is a good idea? Really?

      • David Lewis

        It says nothing about me. That is a silly cliché. The NHS needs less money spent on it and a great deal more efficiency built into what is more or less a killing machine these days..

        • Doug Smith

          Brown and Blair believed only the private sector could manage the NHS efficiently – hence their drive for NHS privatisation (see NHS plc by Allyson Pollock).

          Cameron, following Blair and Brown, is also on a mission to privatise the NHS.

          How much more privatisation do you think will be necessary before the desired efficiency is achieved?

          • David Lewis

            The whole `NHS privatisation’ thing is a political cliché and based upon simple nonsense. From inception the NHS has sourced all its goods and medicines and hardware and most of its buildings from private organisations.

            As soon as one of the Labour leaders screams `NHS privatisation’ all their dutiful dupes are supposed to bawl and salivate, which is what they always do and the rest of the population looks on uncomfortably.

            The great mistake Labour always makes is to assume that the NHS is as big an issue to the electorate as they pretend it is to them.

            It is not and that is one reason why they will surely lose the forthcoming election. There are quite a few others now, including Miliband’s indescribably awful speech which will be long remembered as the worst political speech since the war, and there have been some bad ones.

          • Doug Smith

            Ah, I see. When my wife was sent to a newly built private hospital that accepts only NHS patients her dreadful experiences were “a political cliché … based upon simple nonsense”?

          • David Lewis

            I will not bore you with my NHS catastrophes but perhaps I have been unlucky.

        • Redshift1

          You’re entitled to your (bizarre) opinion but what is without doubt is that it is not an opinion shared by the vast majority of the population.

          Your “poll” of whatever circles of cretins you interact with isn’t as representative of the population as a poll conducted by a proper polling company.

          • David Lewis

            All conjecture and guesswork.

          • treborc1

            Then stop it you will feel much better.

      • Sidney Ruff-Diamond

        Don’t feed the troll, mate. That one is direct from CCHQ.

        • David Lewis

          I’m not a Tory you dullard

          • treborc1

            Oh I think you are you may not know it, but your plainly a Tory.

          • David Lewis

            No I’m not and you have no imagination and it is `you are’ not `your’.

          • treborc1

            Imagination that’s the problem with you mate your full of imagination.

          • Sidney Ruff-Diamond

            Well that was the testy response of someone of the ‘born to rule’ bent…. OK, meet halfway… Progress tendency?

          • David Lewis

            I was certainly born to rule – no doubt in my mind about that.

            I think before I vote and have voted for different parties at different times.

  • IAS2011

    I don’t believe for one minute that the public – based on a democratic vote – back Miliband. What I do believe is that the public DON’T BACK the Tory’s!
    I, like many others, will strongly believe that these politicians and the undemocratic political systems that continue to harness in our faces, still need a GOOD, STRONG KICKING!!

    While Miliband should be talking about changing the political system to enable a FAIR and JUST democratic process for ALL, he shoves in our faces – telling us – that we ALL are simply focused on more spending in the NHS. Why on earth is Labour still using the NHS as a political football when their has been SO MUCH political and banking failings of ‘ordinary’ people’ ordinary lives and BIG aspirations amid a recession?

    We need a BOLD politician who casual about sitting down with the public – anyone in the public – and listening to their ‘stories’ and harnessing it towards policy development and a REAL confidence to REAL people and REAL lives.

    Shamefully, their is a perception that such REAL lives are not proactive enough in the market to achieve BIG goals. I, like many will say, WHEN THESE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN STRONG IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND AMBITIOUS IN STARTING-UP IN BUSINESS, THEY GET FAILED BY POOR GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND PRACTICES IN PARTNERSHIP WITH BANKS!!

    Miliband, has done nothing to deserve leadership at 10 Downing Street.

    • Sidney Ruff-Diamond

      Stop shouting.

  • ButcombeMan

    Where was the policy to deal with mass immigration?.

    Where was the policy to deal with the deficit and national debt?.

    Where was the policy on the EU?

    How will the “Mansion Tax” work in practice (and Burnham was utterly clueless when asked, on PM Radio 4).

    How is HMRC fit enough to cope with a “Mansion Tax”?

    How long will it take to implement?

    How will properties be valued?

    By whom?

    What will the true costs of running such a scheme?

    What will be the costs of the inevitable computer scheme to run it?

    How long will that take to put out to tender, build and implement?

    (In the meantime where will the money come from)

    How will the inevitable disputes and appeals be dealt with (for those around 2 million) .

    What will happen to those, almost accidentally property rich but cash poor, who cannot afford to pay this tax out of their income?

    Will they be forced out of their homes even if they are old & sick?

    • Mark Reilly

      Mansion tax: as most people affected will already send in a Self Assessment form.

      Not sure if you are familiar with them but you declare Dividends, other income, Capital Gains ..all on the basis that providing false information would be a criminal offence, and presumably a small % of these are checked.
      Add a section, value of home, could include the Council Tax banding which would give a good indication of current value, or you could opt to include a valuation if you want to pay for one form a certified Surveyor.

      The main issue would be overseas residents, but you extend the reach of Self Assessment to everyone who owns a property in the UK. Houses are pretty difficult to move to a Tax Haven, all houses are registered with the Land Registry

      As for the cash poor, all taxes have personal allowances, simply allow home owners to offset their existing allowances such as Income Tax personal allowance, Capital gains Tax allowance against the Mansion Tax. So if you have had no other taxable income or your income is below a certain level you get an exemption from the Monies you owe on Mansion Tax.

      • Steve Stubbs

        Council tax banding in this would be useless. It doesn’t give any indication of current value, only that it falls above a certain baseline.

        Like most of the recent policy announcements, we have the headline soundbite, but no detailed information on how it will actually the applied or enforced. Without that, it is impossible to pass a sensible judgement on any of them. We need to see the detail to be able to sell them to potential voters.

        • ButcombeMan

          You said it for me.
          I am not going to bother shredding Mark Reilly’s exegesis.

          It was a half baked idea when the LibDems first suggested it.

          It gets worse, presented by one of the serious parties of government.

          Stupid to put it forward as a quick route to increased tax take, hypothecated “for the NHS”.

          It is no such thing. This is amateur stuff, from a party that has pretensions to govern again. I am surprised it got past Ed Balls.

          Since Burnham understood so little about maybe it didn’t! Maybe it was never discussed in Shadow Cabinet. Maybe it is just, back of a fag packet.

          There is nothing quick about creating a new process like this when HMRC is so messed up and dysfunctional already. The best way to get additional tax in, is by use of an already existing mechanism,

          • treborc1

            I cannot wait to see this work the only house that I know which is not listed and getting a pile of money from the owners would be the house built by Catherine Zeta Jones and Michael Douglas, the house has been empty since the farmer down the road refused to close down his pig farming enterprise.

            I live three Miles from Prince Charles Welsh home lived in for two weeks a year it cost Millions to do up has a staff of eleven all year, twenty when he lives in it and some how I doubt he’s be paying much tax.

            The Avoidance which labour keeps telling us will go has been spoken about since the early days of labour in 1970’s but of course it’s not illegal seems that’s hard for labour to understand.

          • Chrisso

            Back of an iPad? Fag packets and envelopes are sooo retro.

    • david kirkup

      Put you in charge would be the way to go, you seem to know or at least you think you do

      • ButcombeMan

        Ah, sarcasm. Not a serious discussion of the issues I raised.

        I know how to think. I think this supposed tax is plain silly.

        There is no evidence that Milliband has given it any thought, his approach is superficial.

        If Burnham did not understand the process, it is plain that it could not really have been discussed in Shadow Cabinet.

        it is a seat of the pants soundbite. This near to an election, ridiculous.

        • treborc1

          The normal cost of running something like this will be massive and then you will have people who will ask to have the tax reviewed maybe labour will ask ATOS they seem to have this knack of appeals.

          But this is why in the early days it was decided to give benefits to the well off, like child benefits, means testing is always expensive

        • Sunny Jim

          If the speech was so poor and vacuous then it will be picked up in polling.

          However, early indications show Ed delivered a content that many voters felt chimed with them.

          You can rail all you want about the stupidity of policies, lack thereof or indeed the shallow thinking of the electorate but the truth is this:

          What needs to be done to get a Labour government is being done right now.

          Get used to it.

          • ButcombeMan

            The only problem is that many Labour parliamentarians are not looking forward to enjoying the prospect of governing.

            There is whispering in the ranks.

            If Milliband keeps ducking the difficult issues . How could they? He is behaving like a man with a leadership skills by-pass. That is why he personally, is scoring so low.

            Unless he gets a grip, the next Labour government will be a disaster from which Labour will never recover.

  • Dave Roberts

    We’ll see just how bad he was when the Tories take him apart at their conference. He just doesn’t come across as convincing and isn’t Prime Minister material.

    • Chrisso

      Prime Minister material? What does that mean? How do you judge that? OK Miliband’s not charismatic, granted, but we’ve had quite enough of those. And Cameron is not in the least charismatic anyway. Yes, the Tories will jeer at anyone they disagree with, they do that by rote – why do you think they got labelled as the nasty party – by one of their own.

      I watched the speech and he’s certainly good at maintaining a narrative for an hour plus without notes. But why o why didn’t he have an ipad handy for a fewe bullet point reminders? Then he would not have forgotten to mention the economy and immigration. However I think he would be OK as PM. But it’s the policies that need to be more radical. That’s what’s missing. Along with his team. Who are they? The only one I think he mentioned was Andy Burnham. And Ed Balls is a deadweight liability.

      • treborc1

        He acts and sounds like he knows what he is talking about, we can trust him to know what he’s doing.

  • Dave Postles

    No poll needed. I received this email this morning from Benefits and Work campaign. What is Labour going to do? I’ve no idea.

    ‘Dear Dave,

    It’s hard to know which of the numbers in this newsletter is the most appalling.

    The fact that 31% of disability living allowance (DLA) claimants get absolutely
    nothing when they transfer to personal independence payment (PIP).

    Or that just 45% of new PIP claims are successful, if you don’t include people with
    terminal illnesses.

    There’s the staggering 92% drop in employment and support allowance (ESA) appeals
    since the DWP brought in mandatory reconsiderations.

    Then there’s the revelation that the PIP waiting list is still getting longer, in
    spite of promises by ministers to fix it. There are now 323,000 people waiting for
    a medical, meaning an average wait of at least 35 weeks.

    Or is it that just 19% of claimants who made a new ESA claim between October and
    December 2013 have so far had a decision, again largely because of long delays in
    getting a medical?

    The only mildly entertaining number in amongst all the latest statistics is that,
    after all this time and money, there are still fewer people receiving universal
    credit than have season tickets for Watford Town FC. IDs may claim that universal
    credit is going exactly to plan, but he must be the only person left who still
    believes it.

    Finally, we reveal that the DWP is still refusing to say when it will publish one
    set of statistics that campaigners have been pursuing for a long time – the ESA
    death statistics. But we haven’t let them off the hook that easily.

    Good luck,

    Steve Donnison’

    • treborc1

      sad but after going through my claim and being told me I was fit to work, thank god the Tories brought in the review.

      • Dave Postles

        My thoughts are with you constantly – take care.

  • David Callam

    I liked the content of Mr Miliband’s speech, though I’m not sure how much of it will ever come to pass. I though the pseudo chummy presentation was truly dire, but that’s Ed Miliband. If you want a statesmanlike speech don’t pick a geek as party leader.
    I think the media hostility is largely due to vested interests: many of them are paid enough to own a £2million mansion, or to aspire to one.
    As for the public, can I suggest you poll them again after next week’s Tory conference where there will surely be a free market response to Mr Miliband’s ideas.

    • Chrisso

      Don’t rely on Andrew Neil on the Politics ‘Show’ – he wheeled out two people to comment on the Parliament lawns – one from the Torygraph and one from the IoD. Such is BBC balance these days. I’m sure they are under a 3 line whip from Tory central office.

      • David Callam

        I’m certainly not relying on Mr Neil. He is often well researched, but he is politically somewhere to the right of Ghengis Khan.
        On your wider point, I fear you are right about the BBC. I blame the imminent Charter review. I think senior management has been told to keep its nose clean if it expects to survive. It will be interesting to see what bias it brings to coverage of the forthcoming General Election.

  • Sunny Jim

    We can afford to be a couple of points behind in the polls and still achieve a comfortable majority.

    The wailing and gnashing of teeth from the right about Ed’s speech is just frustration that they haven’t been given the stick they wanted to beat the party with.

    We just need to avoid mistakes and hostages to fortune to win the next election.

    The Tories are way behind and it’s up to them to win over the electorate.

    • Tony_E

      And that’s entirely the point – it’s not about winning any more, that’s probably in the bag. It’s about managing expectations.

      The biggest problem for Ed Miliband is that the figures won’t stack up. Ever. Nothing that he says he proposes for the next parliament will ever really come to pass. It can no longer be paid for. The 2000-2005 was the most redistributive in history, and the poor got poorer.

      Britain is in the unenviable position of being not only a divided nation by territory, creed, culture and idiology, but one with huge numbers of economically inactive citizens, a workforce that is generally less productive per pound spent than our main competitors, and with a huge debt and further public spending commitments that cannot be escaped.

      Labour will win. But then what? How can living standards rise? He hasn’t explained the truth to the general public, he’s just blamed it on the other side, when that’s not really the issue. The issue is that the 1945 settlement, cradle to grave, is dead. The only reason it still appears to live is because we borrowed a stick to prop it up on. We couldn’t even afford the stick.

      He doesn’t have a clue. The other side doesn’t have a clue. And the Yellow team, well they can’t find their backside in the dark with both hands. It’s no good looking to the EU, they have no answer, and in the USA Obama has been kicking the can down the road for six years.

      Which politician is going to be first to tell the truth?

  • rekrab

    Well, forget about the political elite and all those speakers, only one star by far came out of that conference “HARRY SMITH” magnificent, Brilliant and so true and committed! God bless Harry!

  • Saddo

    Listen chaps, if Labour do over turn the Tory majority in England in 2015 then they can introduce their proposed changes to NHS England, the Mansion/London house tax, the 50p tax rate, education and welfare.

    If they don’t and can only try to fiddle them through with Scottish or Welsh votes, little Eddie & co may just face a few problems governing England.

    Can any upstanding Lister please explain how you fix an alleged £30bn gap in NHS England funding by 2020 by raising “£2.5bn” a year and then allocating it straightaway to additional £2.5bn of spending? As with anything economic with Labour, the sum’s don’t add up.

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