Review of the race: Ed Miliband

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

The prevailing wisdom in these final days of the leadership contest is to proclaim that Ed Miliband has come from nowhere to the cusp of victory. I’m not sure that is a convincing narrative – he’s on the cusp of victory alright (and not many would have expected that at the start) but he’s certainly not come from nowhere.

From the moment that Ed got into the race he was in second place. The media were delighted to play up the fraternal tussle to the exclusion of all else (and all other candidates), but it often missed what was the real story. Ed Miliband was a serious candidate. He was in this to win (he wouldn’t have challenged his brother otherwise), and he had a vision of what the Labour Party should look like.

He was second though, a strong and consistent second. Yet he lagged behind his brother from the start. David is experienced, well known and the heir to the throne. Ed was a well regarded cabinet minister with a portfolio that made him easy to love. Popular with the party, but yet to sketch out in full what the party would look like. To say he’s come from nowhere though does him a disservice. He was always one of the possible victors from day one, and he’s run this race so well he threatens to make the final darting run past his brother, winning the leadership on the line.

With the mantle of frontrunner though, comes increased scrutiny. Recently attacks have begun to circulate in the press, labelling Ed as a left-wing candidate with veiws “outside of the mainstream”. We should knock that lie on the head right now, whether he is elected or not. Sunder Katwala has already staked out the case that he’s a centrist, and it’s resoundingly true. Which of his views are outside of the mainstream? A living wage? Voting reform? He has a similar platform to his brother in most respects – the differences are those of style and substance. It is a platform firmly rooted in the centre-ground.

His campaign organisation, which didn’t start off with the breakneck speed of the elder Miliband’s, has come on leaps and bounds from the first days of this campaign, when his team were picking up their first precious email addresses and phone numbers, struggling to get their candidate’s messages out. By the time I visited Ed’s HQ in August to interview him, there were volunteers in the hallway and on the floor, using their own phones to “call for change”. Ed swung past to greet them, made a call himself and spoke movingly and at length about why he was in this race. Afterwards I turned to one of his volunteers. “He’s good”, I said. “We know”, replied the volunteer. Ed has tapped into a vein of supporters who are happy to give small donations; happy to phone bank; happy to cajole friends into voting. That’s not to say that Ed doesn’t have the support of some big donors – he does – but he also has a bedrock of support from volunteers. This is something the party must capture and build on in the coming months.

While Ed has never attempted anything so grand as his brother’s “Movement for Change”, and was never completely volunteer led like Andy Burnham or Diane Abbott’s campaigns, there was a sense that Ed’s campaign was the one that derived most of its energy from volunteers and supporters. For a while supporters tried to claim that he was “powered by people” – of course this was never entirely true, he was powered by a well-trained and organised staff – but volunteers seemed to be integral to his campaign, especially the young, and new members who both seemed to find something appealing in Ed.

Ed Miliband could be the leader of the Labour Party in less than 24 hours. Over the course of this race he has come a long way, and developed immensely as a politician. His growth in confidence has been at times astounding (compare the Newsnight debate with last week’s Question Time if you don’t believe me), and he’s found his voice on the national stage. In many ways this race has been the making of Ed, and whatever the result, he’s now a real top-level politician. A national level politician. A “stop him in the street politician”. Labour doesn’t have many of those anymore – whatever the result, the party must make best use of him. He has, after all, been on an incredible journey…and it might not be over just yet…