Poor result in Rochester and Strood leaves LabourList readers unhappy

Well over 1,000 LabourList readers voted in this week’s survey – but that doesn’t make the results any better for Labour.

Despite the vast majority of readers correctly predicted a third-place finish in the Rochester and Strood by-election a fortnight ago, a similarly large proportion were disappointed with last week’s result.

52% of people felt that Labour’s performance in the by-election was quite bad, with a further 21% saying they felt it had gone very badly. 20% thought that we had done quite well in the face of a media narrative that largely ignored our candidate’s prospects, while just under 2% of readers think it went very well.

The national Party’s approach to the election came in for some criticism from fairly early on, with Luke Akehurst saying that the lack of support from head office belied a dearth of ambition. This came after Akehurst had already laid out his belief that Labour could win the seat – hopes quickly dashed by Mark Ferguson, who confirmed sources were playing down expectations.

While expectation management may have worked in guiding Labour supporters predictions, it has clearly come begrudgingly. A combined 73% unhappy with a by-election result six months before a general election should make difficult reading at Brewers Green.

So, what upset activists so much? Well for one, Labour’s share of the vote dropped by 11.7% points – and although boundary changes before 2010 have not been kind to us, it is still largely a seat we held in 2005. While the Tories will be hoping they can win it back in May, it doesn’t look like Labour will be at the races.

Then, of course, there was the Emily Thornberry resignation. The Tories managed to lose an MP and it was still a negative Labour story that managed to dominate the front pages for an entire weekend.

Following her “Image from Rochester” tweet on polling day, sources told us that Ed Miliband was angrier than he had ever been. Less than an hour after polls closed, she resigned from the Shadow Cabinet. While some claimed that her tweet had been proof that the Labour Party is run by an out-of-touch North London elite, others said the situation had been blown out of proportion.

Was it a resigning matter?

Readers are split, but there is a clear majority: 53% say that she should not have resigned, while 44% think she was right to go.

The devolution of further powers to the Scottish Parliament has been another major issue this week, culminating with the publication of the Smith Report yesterday. Whether power of income tax should be fully devolved has been at the forefront of the debate, with the mood among Labour apparently changing as the week has gone on. Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown have both expressed their concerns, but by Tuesday the debate looked to be going the other way. The official Labour line looked set to be supporting the policy, and Scottish Labour leader candidate Jim Murphy threw his weight behind the idea.

However, LabourList readers remain deeply sceptical. 56% are against fully devolving the power, with only 34% in favour. 11% said they did not know – a substantial amount that could point to people from elsewhere in the UK who do not think it is their place to say, and those who simply aren’t sure.

A poor by-election performance, an unnecessary resignation, and an unpopular policy. It doesn’t make for cheery reading.

1,109 people voted in this week’s survey. Thanks to everyone who took part.