BBC: Labour would win 312 seats and Tories 226 at general election now

Labour would win 312 seats if this week’s local election results were replicated at a general election, according to BBC analysis.

While the tally would be 14 seats short of the 326 needed for an overall majority, the BBC’s calculation does include 72 independent seats – something highly unlikely to translate from local to general elections. The BBC further predicts 40 Liberal Democrat and 226 Conservative MPs.

The national broadcaster has also released its projected national share figures for the local elections. These show Labour on 35%, with the Conservatives on 26%, the Liberal Democrats on 20%, and Independents on 19%. Labour has not held a lead of this size in local election national share since 1997.

The BBC’s analysis of 750 key seats, chosen to be representative and projected nationally, indicates an implied swing from 2019 of 4.5%.

Asked if this was enough to win a majority, election expert John Curtice said it was “perhaps just enough” but dependent on Scotland and how the figures are read.

Asked about the predictions on Politics Live, Shadow Attorney General Emily Thornberry said: “This is the basecamp- we’ve got a mountain to climb, but the view from here is alright.”

Read more on the local elections:

• Latest updates: Labour councils won, held and lost
• Local elections: Labour gain Blackpool and Erewash councils
• Local elections: Labour lose control of Slough
• Local elections: Labour take Dover and Bracknell Forest in “sensational” win
• Labour win overall control in key target council Stoke
• Local elections: ‘Seismic’ Labour win in bellwether Plymouth council
• Labour becomes largest party in Bolton but not in overall control
• Labour’s Chris Cooke takes Middlesbrough mayor post from independent
• Labour bruises the Tories in North West Leicestershire, Hartlepool, Tamworth
• What would good local election results look like for Labour?