What hurdles would Andy Burnham face to stand for Parliament?

As reports swirl that Gorton and Denton MP Andrew Gwynne is set to quit as an MP on medical grounds, speculation is rife that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham may seek to be a candidate at a subsequent by-election.

Should Gwynne announce his resignation later today, a writ for a by-election in his Greater Manchester constituency would likely be issued within three months. After the resignation of Mike Amesbury as the MP for Runcorn and Helsby on March 17 last year, the writ to trigger the by-election was tendered on March 27, ten days later.

Once the writ has been issued, a by-election will take place between 21 and 27 working days.

So if Andy Burnham does wish to become the Labour candidate in that by-election, what hurdles might face him along the way?

The 2026 Labour rulebook states that directly-elected mayors, like Burnham, would need to “seek the express permission of the NEC (national executive committee) before seeking nomination” as a candidate for Westminster, with their decision being “final”.

A big consideration might be the potential cost of a mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester, with an NEC member telling The Guardian that such a contest could cost the party £2 million.

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Should the NEC approve of his intention to stand as an MP, Burnham could face a second challenge. In December, the New Statesman reported the possibility that an all-women shortlist could be enforced for the by-election, with an NEC source telling the magazine: “Gender balance in our party is much more important than boosting the ego of any single politician.” 

That decision would be made by a selection committee, made up of between six and nine members that reflect the demography of the constituency, including at least two members representing affiliated organisations. A representative of the NEC would supervise the selection, usually a member of the relevant regional executive committee and appointed by the regional director. They would also be responsible for approving each stage of the selection process, including the election of the selection committee, timetable and shortlist.

Burnham would then need to pass an interview stage and make it onto a shortlist, before a selection contest among CLP members in Gorton and Denton.

Finally, after being selected as Labour’s candidate, Burnham would then have to go on and win the by-election. Recent polling suggests such a contest would be a close race between Labour and Reform UK, with More in Common’s recent MRP putting Nigel Farage’s party on 30% in the constituency to Labour’s 28%, with the Greens on 23%.

However, as Mayor, Andy Burnham has maintained popularity – winning re-election twice in 2021 and 2024. In the most recent election, held two months before the general election, Burnham won 63.4% of the vote in Greater Manchester, with a vote share of 61% in Tameside – the district where Gorton and Denton is located.

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