Is this a critical moment for Starmer’s leadership?

For several months, there has been a growing sense of malaise at the state of Keir Starmer’s leadership among some in the PLP. While there have been rumours of plots and campaigns taking place behind closed doors, nobody has been willing to make the first move, partly out of concern they may fall short and also because of the acute awareness of the risks brought about by opening the Pandora’s box of regicide.

However, a growing number MPs are now alluding to a reckoning looming after the local elections, and a handful are even outright calling on the PM to announce a timetable for his resignation. That group could expand further if, as is expected, Labour are hit with a series of brutal election results across the country.

Earlier this week, Ed Miliband put distance between himself and the Prime Minister’s decision to appoint Peter Mandelson – and he is reportedly not the only minister to feel an exasperation with Starmer. There could be a more vocal push for Starmer to announce a date for his departure after May 8.

Become a friend of LabourList and join our community. Our friends support our vital non-factional work and get access to exclusive content and events. 

Patrick Maguire suggests what that transition could look like, with Starmer being persuaded (or pressured) to outline a timetable for a handover, with a new leader in place for party conference in late September. Crucially, this could allow time for a certain Andy Burnham to make a second bid to return to Parliament to succeed Starmer as Prime Minister. A senior centrist Labour MP told The Guardian: “It’s Andy or bust. Nobody else can win.”

Polling suggests that Burnham is the only senior Labour figure with better favourability with the public than the Prime Minister – with the suggestion now being seriously discussed that backbenchers could back Starmer to allow Burnham to stand to be an MP once again.

Whether this does come to pass (and whether it is sensible given the state of global politics and the fragility of the markets) is a different story. But the fact that we are at this point less than two years into government is damning, and as Boris Johnson said when he resigned: “When the herd moves, it moves.”

This may well not be the end of Keir Starmer’s premiership. Labour are constitutionally squeamish about regicide. But Starmer will have a lot to do to stem the sense that May might be the beginning of the end.

LabourList are not in the predictions business. We do not take sides in debates about personnel changes. We just do our best to let readers know what conversations are happening in SW1 – honestly, openly and without fear or favour.

Subscribe here to our daily newsletter roundup of Labour news, analysis and comment– and follow us on TikTok, Bluesky, WhatsApp, X and Facebook. You can also write to our editor to share your thoughts on our stories and share your own. The best letters are published every Sunday.