Labour on track to lose more than 1,800 councillors in English local elections, pollster claims

Labour could lose as many as 1,800 council seats across England as the party loses votes to various different parties across the nation, according to a recent forecast.

Pollster More in Common said that May’s elections will continue a trend of fragmentation of support for Labour and the Conservatives, with both parties potentially ending up on 700 council seats or fewer.

The pollster’s current projection expects Reform UK to win 1,278 councillors, with the Greens closely behind with 1,154. By contrast, Labour is currently anticipated to lose 1,828 at next month’s local elections in England.

More in Common highlighted Sunderland as “one of the clearest examples of Reform’s threat to Labour in its heartlands”, with an anti-incumbency mood set to fuel fragmentation on Birmingham City Council.

On London, the pollster said Labour is set to face threats from the Greens in inner London, particularly in Hackney, Southwark, Haringey and Camden, with the Conservatives aiming to attack Labour in their previous strongholds of Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet, and Reform eyeing up the Labour controlled council in Barking and Dagenham.

Labour losing support on all sides in Wales

In Wales, the pollster said Labour is facing a “double-incumbency effect”, with almost four in five Welsh people (79 percent) think there should be a change in how Wales is run, including almost half (47 percent) of Welsh Labour voters.

More in Common’s MRP forecasts a “three-horse race”, currently putting Labour third but within four points of Reform UK and Plaid Cymru. Plaid is forecast to be the largest party with 30 seats, with Reform on 28 and Labour 24. The pollster suggests that the only viable route to stable government in such circumstances would be a Plaid-Labour coalition.

After being the dominant party for the entirety of devolution, the MRP forecasts that Labour would only top the poll in four of 16 constituencies, and does not surpass 25 percent in any of them.

The pollster also notes that the new electoral system “creates a set of highly marginal ‘sixth seat’ contests” and that small shifts in vote share make “Labour and Reform’s positions highly precarious”.

Labour’s potential collapse in Wales, according to More in Common, is not confined to one group or region, with “Labour… being squeezed on the right by Reform, and by Plaid Cymru and the Greens from the left”.

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Labour support waning in Scotland, but many constituencies on knife-edge

In Scotland, while the SNP is defending a high base and with 73 percent wanting a change of government in Holyrood, the election is set to be the most fragmented in the history of Scottish devolution.

More in Common said that the downward trend of Labour support in both the constituency and regional list vote is set to continue at the election, despite success in Scotland at the general election.

The pollster’s MRP puts the SNP on track to remain the largest party but with fewer seats, with Reform second and Labour third with five fewer seats in the Scottish Parliament.

However, around half of Scottish Parliament constituencies could be decided by a margin of less than five percent, meaning that small shifts in support could result in different outcomes.

The pollster flagged close races in Jackie Baillie’s constituency of Dumbarton, with a close fight between the SNP and Reform and a tossup between Labour, the SNP and the Scottish Greens in Edinburgh Central.

Glasgow Southside, formerly held by Nicola Sturgeon, is also within five points of a Labour gain, according to the MRP poll.

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