Go West? Will a leadership contest be triggered today?

One of the strongest motivating forces in politics is the sense that ‘something must be done’. The despair felt by Labour members throughout the UK is palpable. The sense that immediate action would, could or should be taken as a result – less so.

In speaking to and texting a number of MPs, the responses I have found to Catherine West’s challenge to the Cabinet to run against the PM (or she would) have ranged from sympathetic to bewildered or bemused. 

West’s move was clearly a cri de coeur, not a calculated strategic act. But that doesn’t mean that she is backing away from it. And many of those in the party whose hearts are as sore as their feet after months pounding the pavements to no avail will share her sentiments – however they feel about what she’s done and what the result of it could be.

READ MORE: Which Labour MPs are calling for Starmer to go – and who is still backing PM?

While the sense that something must be done is pretty universal there is simply no agreement as to what that something is. That’s why this move has drawn the disapproval of MPs as left-wing as Richard Burgon and as Starmer-loyal as John Slinger. 

Both sides have different motivations. Those who support Starmer don’t want to see a challenge at all. Many of those who do seek change also want the contest to include Andy Burnham – who is not an MP, having been blocked by Starmer in January from running in the Gorton and Denton by-election.

And what of those putative candidates who may be in the running should there be a contest before any potential return of Burnham?

Wes Streeting is said to have a campaign ready to go (though his allies deny this). But his vote, both in the membership and possibly the PLP, will come from the more Starmer-friendly parts of the party. In what might be a close vote, he will not want to be painted as the man who brought down the PM. While I believe the adage that ‘he who wields the knife never wears the crown’ is overblown, there is no doubt that many do believe this to be true. And if a decision is marginal, this sentiment may be all it takes to stay someone’s hand.

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On the other hand, you have Angela Rayner, who is still waiting to finalise her arrangements with HMRC and will want to have that squared away before any contest she may choose to join. And I say ‘may’ because she went on record this weekend saying that blocking Burnham had been a mistake. So it could be that she will join the group backing Burnham rather than running herself. Either way, she would be unlikely to favour an immediate contest.

For the moment, however, West is not backing down, saying she will make her judgement after giving the PM a fair hearing today. Starmer is due to make a speech this morning in which he is expected to make a much bigger and bolder offer on growth, defence, Europe and the economy, and offer hope to voters. However, how much policy the speech will contain remains in question – not least because it comes just two days before the King’s Speech sets out the government’s legislative agenda.

If West does decide that she has not heard enough to change her mind, the next question is whether enough Labour MPs will back this stalking-horse campaign to trigger a contest. Our tireless reporter Daniel Green has the list that everyone in SW1 is talking about – which MPs are backing the PM (for now), and who has said he needs either to resign now or announce a timetable for doing so.

Some are counselling MPs not to lose their heads. Others argue that where your head is might be the least of your worries after you’ve been decapitated – as Labour has been in Wales and councils across England.

We may know by the end of today which way West will go. And soon after, whether enough MPs will follow her lead.

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