‘What should Andy Burnham do about Channel Crossings?’

Andy Burnham has given few clues about his approach to immigration if he becomes  Labour’s eighth Prime Minister in a week’s time. If briefings are to be believed, he is likely to pare back controversial changes to settlement rules, and would like to spend far less time than Sir Keir Starmer did on foreign affairs. But like it or not, how he deals with his French and European counterparts, in whose hands so many of the solutions to Channel crossings lie, will be a key test for his progressive government after months of Reform UK leading the polls.

A year ago this week, Prime Minister Starmer stood alongside President Macron and hailed a breakthrough moment. For the first time since Brexit, the UK had an agreement to return people who crossed by boat from France in return for taking an equivalent number of asylum seekers safely from France. It was a deal the previous government had desired but concluded was impossible with UK-EU relations so damaged.

One year on, Channel crossings are down 38%, and yet we have since heard little from the government about how well the deal is working to bring down crossings. Instead, since being appointed, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has focused her energy on ‘pull factors’, announcing sweeping reforms to refugee status in an effort to make Britain less hospitable to future arrivals, angering many on Labour’s own side in the process, for targeting recognised refugees.

READ MORE: ‘A system fit for Britain’

With the UK-France deal due to expire in October, a new Labour Prime Minister will not have long to decide their own approach to Channel crossings. Burnham faces a choice: let the deal wither, wasting the diplomatic and financial capital already invested, or use it as the foundation for a new era of UK-EU migration cooperation and a chance to signal his vision and values on migration management. 

There is an important window of opportunity for Labour to broker an ambitious deal with Europe that could push numbers down further – and keep them down – building on lessons from the UK-France ‘one in one out’ pilot. 

A first political test for the next Labour Prime Minister

Burnham needs to act fast to show that he has this challenge in hand. Despite the fall in Channel crossings, public opinion has barely shifted. Immigration remains near the top of voters’ concerns, the government is not trusted to deliver on its promises, and the far-right continues to use small boats to drive a wedge between communities and peel away Labour‑leaning voters – just 15% of the public are satisfied with the government on immigration. A steep decline in net migration and in small‑boat arrivals has not translated into political capital, in part because the tone and content of Labour’s approach on immigration have split its own supporters.

The decline in small boat crossings has not been adequately sold on the public stage. The fall in crossings is due partly to lower numbers in Europe, but it also reflects the UK’s own efforts – the ramp‑up of enforcement on the French side and the 1‑for‑1 “routes for returns” deal. A Burnham government could claim this as proof of concept rather than an accident of timing.

There is a chance now to set out a multi‑year plan and move away from the control theatre of recent years. It is also a chance to articulate a national vision of migration management and protection that can speak across the political spectrum – and Labour’s voting coalition –  showing that it is possible to take responsibilities to refugees seriously in a way that is fair, predictable and orderly.

For Labour, that plays directly to its core story about combining compassion, competence and internationalism. For European partners, it signals a shift towards responsibility‑sharing, not responsibility‑shifting – a Britain that shoulders its share rather than trying to create its own rules.

New polling we published this week shows broad public support for a ‘routes for returns’ deal with Europe, to significantly reduce irregular crossings, while expanding access to safe and legal inbound routes. And crucially for Labour – it is supported by nearly two thirds (62%) of its voters including 67% of voters lost to Labour’s right, but who remain open to returning.

Routes for returns – a new approach balancing compassion and control

The pilot has not been perfect, numbers have been small, and there is a lot that could have been done better. But it is also the best approach we have. Evidence from the Biden administration’s experimentation in the US showed that a pathway for people with a likely protection need combined with restrictions on asylum at the border can reduce irregular crossings by 81%.

The UK could do something similarly bold. Initially, it could pursue a six-month circuit-breaker. Over six months, the UK would work with France and selected EU partners to ensure that a high share of small‑boat arrivals are swiftly returned to Europe under clear, rights-respecting procedures – to dramatically shift incentives for asylum seekers to get in a boat.

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At the same time, the UK would open a time‑limited protection route from Europe (we suggest around 10,000 places) focused on people with strong links to Britain.

Most importantly, this would give the new PM the opportunity to say: “If you get on a dinghy, you will be sent back – but if you have a strong case to come to Britain, there is a safe way to apply.”

After this surge phase, the UK would commit to a stable annual programme of safe admissions from Europe and key transit countries, pegged to a share of EU asylum numbers. In return, participating EU states agree a “returns guarantee” for residual small‑boat arrivals, under safe‑third‑country principles and with safeguards.

The European perspective

Europeans are a tough crowd – Channel crossings are not the top of any leader’s priority list, so the next UK Labour government needs a big and bold offer to cut through the noise. 

There are many priorities competing for attention in the UK-EU reset, but Burnham has a chance to shape this agenda and place asylum cooperation at its core. Europe is currently focused on implementing their own major migration reforms but are struggling to deliver the centrepiece – a promise of solidarity that aims to relocate 20,000 asylum seekers from countries under most pressure in Europe. In offering to take up to 10,000 asylum seekers direct from Europe, the UK could deliver the equivalent of half this target – reviving the EU’s struggling reform, and demonstrating a clear move away from the ‘cakeism’ of the past.

Many European partners are also looking for new out-of-the-box solutions to asylum issues that prevent dangerous journeys in the first place. If the UK-France pilot could work at scale, it could seed the beginnings of a routes for returns approach that could be attempted further upstream and in conjunction with European partners.

Burnham’s choice

It is often said that to govern is to choose. The next Labour government has only so much bandwidth to get big things across the line, and a maximum of only two and a half years to show voters it can deliver solutions to the challenges our country is facing. 

With major reforms going through the Home Office, and a preoccupied Europe – if Burnham wishes to expand the asylum deal and deliver competency on tackling Channel crossings, he will need to signal this within his government from day one.

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