Poll List: Lib Dems up ten points in a week, as Labour stay in third

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

UPDATE: A new ComRes poll tonight for ITV News/The Independent shows the topline result:

Conservative 32% (+1 since yesterday), Labour 28% (+1) Lib Dems 28% (-1).

This new poll translates on a uniform swing to a hung parliament, with Labour on 279 seats, the Tories on 244 and the Lib Dems on 96.

ComRes also asked voters what their preference would be in the event of a hung parliament. 46% of Liberal Democrat voters would prefer a Gordon Brown led coalition, while just 31% of Liberal Democrat voters would be happy with a coalition led by David Cameron.

However, ComRes also said:

“58% of the overall sample said they would be ‘unhappy’ with a minority government led by Gordon Brown which is currently the most likely outcome given the distribution of votes between the parties. Asking all respondents how they would feel about a Conservative government, 41% said they would be happy, 48% said unhappy. In contrast, 36% said they would be happy with a Labour government, and 53% unhappy.”

The ComRes poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday.

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A new ICM poll for the Guardian this afternoon shows the Tories down one point to 33%, Labour down one point to 28%, and the Lib Dems up ten points in a week to 30%.

The Guardian reports:

“It is impossible to calculate today’s poll results reliably in terms of parliamentary seats, although if votes moved proportionately in every seat then Labour might end up as the largest party despite coming third in votes.”

The Guardian also reports:

“In today’s poll, the Lib Dems have gained twice as much support from Labour as from the Conservatives. Meanwhile, Labour is losing support in all directions, including to the Conservatives and other smaller parties. The Tories are losing almost no support to Labour and gaining almost as many former Labour votes as they are losing former Tories to the Lib Dems.

“Clegg still lags in third place as the man voters see as the most competent prime minister, on 21% against 32% for Cameron and 30% for Brown. But he trumps his rivals by being seen as a man who is more about substance than spin. Cameron fails on this, with 44% thinking him insubstantial, against 29% who say that of Brown and only 19% of Clegg.

“Clegg is also seen overwhelmingly as the most honest party leader. While 53% think Cameron is honest about his policies and their implications and 51% think Brown is honest, 74% say so of Clegg.”

The surge in Lib Dem support means Labour’s share of the voting intention is at its lowest in the Guardian/ICM’s poll series since 1984.

There will be more polls later. In the meantime, have a look over Anthony Painter’s alternative method.