Two years of Ed Miliband – the scorecard

Today marks the second anniversary of Ed Miliband’s election as Labour leader. In a few days the party returns to Manchester, the scene of the dramatic and tempestuous denouement of a leadership contest that now feels much much more than two years ago. In the aftermath of the result, many justifiably feared the party could tear itself apart, and that Miliband – pilloried as Red Ed in the papers – could not get past the way he was elected. And who he defeated. Those leadership concerns lingered on and off over Miliband’s first year – but where is he now? I’ve broken his performance down into a few key indicators:

Polling: the conventional wisdom when it comes to the polls is that Labour is doing well whilst Ed Miliband isn’t. That’s something I’ve already covered in detail. It’s also slightly unfair on Miliband as presumably some of the decisions he has taken have led to Labour’s poll turnaround. And if you compare his YouGov leader rating with Cameron’s – Miliband has gained over thirty points since January, whilst Cameron has lost more than twenty points over the same period. Still, struggling to overtake a PM who couldn’t win a majority is not a benchmark of success – Ed’s polling needs to improve, which would in turn harden Labour’s lead. Score – B

Election results: On the basis of local election results in May 2012 – Labour is doing pretty well. Tory attempts to expectation manage the result left them with egg covered faces as Labour met crossed even their highest bar for “a good result”. However, we did also lose what should have been a safe Labour seat to a fringe party, and in 2011 we lost Scotland to the SNP. Not good. Miliband has identified the two main problems we have – a loss of faith in mainstream politics, and a subsequent decline in people bothering to vote. Far easier to identify the problem than fix it though, but Ed must be given credit for considerable local government successes. Score: B+

PMQs: this is almost certainly Ed Miliband’s biggest area of improvement in the past year. PMQs is no longer something to be dreaded – in fact, Ed Miliband is now winning these contests regularly both on style and substance (but usually on substance). He’s more confident, clearer, and calmer. It took a while but he’s no longer an easily dismissed PMQs performer. Score: A-

Party Unity: all parties have disagreements. And all parties have malcontents. Labour has always had both in spades. There are always murmurings and muttering a of discontent. But at the moment, it’s – relatively – quiet. Sure, not everyone is happy with the direction of the party, but I don’t see a leadership challenge, major row or insurrection coming soon. After 2010 that didn’t seem likely – kudos to Ed for steadying the ship. At conference 2013 though there will be a debate on the role of Progress. If there are still no major rows then, that will be a major achievement.Score: A

Vision/Policy: now here’s the fly in the ointment. In many ways we have lots of (worthwhile) vision. Squeezed middle. Predistribution. Responsible capitalism. It’s good, but it’s too wonky – and doesn’t make sense to the vast majority of the electorate who don’t obsess about political theory. Even someone as nerdy and obsessed with policy announcements as me finds some of what Ed says baffling, and makes me wonder if an economics PhD is required for full comprehension. Ed Miliband is smart, very smart, but it’d be nice if he could explain things a little more simply. For starters, it makes it hard for even the most dedicated of Mili-fans to explain what Ed is for. The squeezed middle is a nice concept, but what does it mean in practical policy terms? Whilst there are a few policies kicking around, they’re still quite thin – there’s certainly nothing totemic out there, little to parse on the doorstep. And now Jon Cruddas’s policy review – although welcome – slightly makes it feel like we’re back at the starting line again on policy formation. Whereas we need some good policies – like building affordable homes – so our activists aren’t “naked on the doorstep”. Score: C.

Overall: A good year for Miliband – albeit after a rocky start. He has now acheived a level of comfort in the party, to the extent that he can disappear from view for a few weeks without the party immediately going into spasms of panic. Polling is good (but needs improvement), ditto elections. Add some bigger, more totemic policies into the mix, and some simpler language – and we’re going places. I don’t ask too much, do I? Score: B+