We want to hear from you, and hear how things are going in your area – Sarah has taken over tonight’s liveblog – you can email me at [email protected] or on Twitter @mssarahpine. The pick of the submissions will be added to the liveblog.
18.10 After what has been a long day, I’m signing off the liveblog for the evening (unless something huge happens). Thanks for staying with us until this point. Conor will be back tomorrow to keep you up to date with the fallout from the vote.
18.03 Jeremy Corbyn has announced he will be making a speech to party members tomorrow morning in central London.
In it, he says he will “reflect on the campaign, on the current political climate, and to look ahead to the fresh challenges we face.”
The invitation went out at 5.59pm and is already sold out.
18.00 Margaret Hodge, who co-proposed no-confidence against Corbyn, has said he does not have the ability to lead the party into a General Election.
“This has been a tumultuous referendum which has been a test of leadership. Jeremy has failed that test. There will be a series of incredibly important decisions and negotiations with the EU over the next few year.
“Are we really saying that we send Jeremy Corbyn on our behalf? Does he have the necessary qualities? There is probably going to be a general election within a year. Do we want Jeremy Corbyn to lead us in to that election?
“He has shown us that he can’t do it. We have someone in the position of leader who has shown that he can’t lead.”
17.45 Jeremy Corbyn has emailed all members of the Labour party. His email is notable for what is doesn’t say as much as what it does. He says he will fight the Conservatives to stand up for working people, but gives few reflections on the outcome of the vote. He gives no mention to his intentions to stay on as Labour leader, or the no confidence vote that may be facing him.
Here is a screenshot of the text:
17.41 Momentum have launched their own petition with the slogan #KeepCorbyn. Their statement is very similar to that from Union bosses published earlier, calling for unity rather than a manufactured leadership contest.
— Momentum – #VoteLabour 🌹 (@PeoplesMomentum) June 24, 2016
17.33 Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale has ruled out supporting another Scottish independence referendum.
She said “Now is the time for calm heads. Labour’s manifesto ruled out a second referendum in the lifetime of this Parliament – we won’t be changing our minds any time soon.”
You can read LabourList’s full story here.
17.03 The pro-Corbyn petition is at almost 70,000 signatures.
16.41 Twelve major union leaders have backed Corbyn, saying the “last thing the party needs is a manufactured leadership row”. You can read their joint statement on LabourList here.
The signatories are Len McCluskey, Unite; Dave Prentis, UNISON; Tim Roache, GMB; Dave Ward, CWU; Brian Rye, UCATT; Manuel Cortes, TSSA; Mick Whelan, ASLEF; Matt Wrack, FBU; John Smith, Musicians’ Union; Gerry Morrissey, BECTU; Ronnie Draper, BFAWU; Chris Kitchen, NUM
16.18 A full statement from unions is expected soon.
16.15 John McDonnell has made a set of economic demands of the Conservatives, saying the referendum result is a rejection of Tory austerity. He says urgent action is required following the economic shocks following Brexit and that Labour will oppose an emergency Budget with any further cuts.
16.13 Corbyn has cancelled his Glastonbury appearance, which is understandable given the circumstances.
16.00: Len McCluskey, General Secretary of Unite, the UK’s largest trade union, has stepped up to defend Corbyn by saying the party must offer “unity”.
He is quoted as saying “It is evident that the Conservative Party is riven – it is down to Labour to offer unity and calm going forward. Anything less will be to let down the people Labour MPs were elected to represent.”
Unite is affiliated to the Labour party and campaigned to remain in the EU. McCluskey supported Corbyn during his leadership campaign over the summer.
Michael Crick reports that unions will explicitly back Corbyn, and will use their NEC votes to support him.
I understand Unite and almost all affiliated Labour unions will issue pro-Corbyn statement later this afternoon and will back him on NEC
— Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) June 24, 2016
15.51 One notable observation is that Lord Ashcroft’s 12,000-sample on the day polling shows Labour voters turned out for Remain a lot higher than Flint has claimed. His data how 63 per cent of Labour voters chose remain yesterday, well above the average.
How different parties’ voters divided on the EU referendum – from my 12k-sample poll: pic.twitter.com/30oBSIfs49
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) June 24, 2016
15.31 Caroline Flint has said Corbyn’s nuanced message an inability to engage over questions of immigration saw the party fail in the referendum campaign. She said to the BBC:
“I think Labour should have been expecting something like 70-80 per cent of Labour voters voting remain. Instead we’ve come out of this referendum with probably something like just under half of our supporters voting remain and the rest voting leave.
“I think Labour has failed to understand the concerns of people in communities in Doncaster and elsewhere in the country and in Wales.
“We never really talked about their immigration concerns and also Jeremy has to take some responsibility because he provided a rather nuanced message about the European Union which was not as positive as I would like it to ave been.
“If you add to that his refusal to engage in some of the questions about immigration – that combination saw us fail so badly last night.”
14.51: The petition now stands at almost 35,000 signatures. Labour membership is around 400,000, though it is unclear how many who signed the petition are members.
13:57 A 38degrees petition has been launched in an attempt to support Jeremy Corbyn during any upcoming leadership contest. It urges the public to “make your voice heard against the Blairites and keep Jeremy as rightful leader of the Labour party.”
So far it has gained over 15,000 signatures, even though it is barely an hour old – a testament to the pro-Corbyn wing’s social media skills and the breadth of support for Corbyn.
13.38 Ben Bradshaw has said on the World at One that he will be voting in favour of the no confidence motion.
He said “it was a devastating and catastrophic defeat. Not just for the Labour Party but the Labour leadership.
“I think Jeremy is a decent and nice man but his leadership – or rather lack of it – during the referendum campaign has been abysmal
“I do think like David cameron he needs to shoulder his share responsibility and, for the sake of the party and country, step down.”
He goes on to disagree with Emily Thornberry, who has said Corbyn saying he was “seven and half” in favour of the EU spoke more truthfully to the public. Bradshaw said on a vote so crucial for the future of the country “should have been ten or ten plus.”
13.09: there’s much rumours and speculation going around. firstly, that enough MPs/MEPs would vote in favour of no confidence, so it would pass.
Secondly, that neither Corbyn nor his close ally McDonnell have enough support to get enough nominations to stand as leader.
There is still a large question about whether or not Jeremy would automatically be on the ballot – previously his office have said he would.
Thirdly, that pre-election report of a letter from 55 MPs against Corbyn were actually planted by someone in his office in order to manage expectations if the UK voted Out – that would make anything less look like a strong response from Corbyn.
13.04: We’ve got the full text of the no confidence letter here.
12.47: Margaret Hodge has spoken on Sky News. She says
“I think the European referendum was a test of leadership. Jeremy failed that test.
“He came out too slowly. He was very half hearted about his attempt to campaign. and Labour voters simply didn’t get the message.
There are going to be really difficult decisions to be made. There’s likely to be a General Election within the next 6-9 months. every lab mp needs to look into their heart and thing ‘is Jeremy Corbyn the right person to see us through these tumultuous times and see us through the General Election?’
“I think he should do the decent thing and if this motion is successful – i think he should reflect on his position and do the same thing David Cameron has done.”
12.44: Corbyn has now left the shadow cabinet meeting. His reaction to the no confidence motion remains to be seen.
12.33: Earlier this morning Corbyn said he respects the Cameron’s decision to resign.
He said in an interview with Sky News, he said
“I respect the decision he’s made as, of course, we all respect the result of the referendum. I want to thank David Cameron for his bravery and supporting gay marraige while he was Prime Minster and the way he handled the Bloody Sunday inquiry and last week showing real respect for the murder of Jo Cox. I think he showed proper leadership then.”
— Sky News (@SkyNews) June 24, 2016
12.22 Corbyn is still in the shadow cabinet meeting.
12.08 Ann Coffey and Margaret Hodge have tabled a letter of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn. It has been presented to PLP chair John Cryer who will consider whether to accept it for discussion on Monday. Conor has all the information you need here.
11.59: There are reports the coup against Corbyn is on. Stay tuned for further details.
11.16: Gisela Stuart has spoken from Leave HQ. Her words also read like someone who thinks Labour needs a new leader.
“The people by a majority decided they wished to leave the European Union.
“Vote Leave is a cross party organisation. We have always acted in a way which was in the interest the country and not in sectional interests
“It is now incumbent to all party leaders to also reflect to what extent they are representing and reflecting the views of the voters.”
11.12: Rumours about a leadership challenge continue, with Michael Savage from the Times tweeting a vote of no confidence could be submitted as early as today.
Hearing a letter calling for a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn could be submitted as early as today. Could be debated at Monday's PLP
— Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) June 24, 2016
10.51: Tony Blair has said Jeremy Corbyn’s “lukewarm” approach to the EU saying his method has had “enormous consequences”. He also went on to say Corbyn’s criticisms of previous Governments neglecting Labour heartlands were untrue, and New Labour invested heavily in these areas.
He told Sky news:
“Let me be frank here, I think the leadership of the Labour party was pretty lukewarm in its support for Remain”
“I don’t think we really organised and mobilised our supporters to understand this was not a protest vote against the Government, or indeed against the establishment. It was a decision, and it’s a decision that will have enormous consequences.
“One of the things that I heard from Jeremy Corbyn earlier today is this notion that successive governments have let down the people in some of the Labour areas that are voting Leave. We invested massively in those areas; we introduced things like the minimum wage, we introduced and signed up to the European social chapter.”
While Tony Blair did nto comment on whether Corbyn should resign his position, rumours continue that the shadow cabinet is discussing Corbyn’s future as leader this morning.
10.33: Douglas Carswell, UKIP MP, has said on the BBC that Labour is “the big potential growth market” for UKIP from now. He says the party will not cease to exist, and they now have a role in breaking up the cartels in Westminster.
My colleague Conor has written about the UKIP threat to Labour’s heartlands here.
10.23: John Mann, Labour MP and Leave supporter says “it’s Labour voters who won this referendum”, meaning Jeremy Corbyn now has the mandate to demand more left-wing policies in the case of Brexit.
“Jeremy should be talking to Labour voters and coming up with an agenda of what should happen. It’s Labour voters who won this referendum.
“That creates a mandate for the new Tory leader, and that mandate is not to renege on any of the workers rights issue, the paid holidays, the working hours, but also one of the quick wins can be to reverse the privatisation of the NHS, which eu procurement rules has allowed in my area. That’s what Jeremy should be on the front foot demanding.”
Eslsewhere, there are growing rumours there is a letter from Labour MPs demanding Corbyn should go.
09.43: Carwyn Jones, Welsh Labour leader, has issued a statement on the result.
He says: “my urgent priority is to protect the interests of Wales”, and says he will ensure Wales has a strong voice in the exit process.
His six key concerns over the upcoming months are:
– Wales being part of exit discussions
– retaining access to the single market
– negotiating continued participation in EU projects such as the CAP and Structural Fund
– adjustments to the Barnett Formula, which determines the amount of public expenditure spent on Wales’, to ensure it does not lose money
– new footing for the relationship between devolved regions and the rest of the UK
09.38: We’ve had the a big call for Corbyn’s resignation. Lord Peter Mandelson has said on Radio 4’s today programme”
“The big question for the Labour Party and whether we’re about to fight a General Election this autumn.
“I think what has become clear to many in the party during this referendum campaign is that Jeremy can’t cut it.
“It’s not a question of his beliefs and values, which are strong. Nor it it a matter of his sincerity or his commitment to do the job. He works very, very hard. The question is whether or not he has the capability to do it.”
09.23: Ok, ok, the announcement we’d wind down the blog were a false alarm.
Sadiq Khan, Labour’s mayor of London, has demanded a place in the Brexit negotiations for London.
He said the capital must have “a voice at the table during those renegotiations”
He also addressed the immigrant population in London who were concerned about their future in the UK.
“You are welcome here. We value the enormous contribution you make to our city and that will not change as a result of this referendum.”
London voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, with 59.9 per cent choosing Remain, one of the most pro-EU parts of the country.
09.00: It’s been a long, tiring night at LabourList HQ, and we’re going to wind down the liveblog now. You can follow major updates in our News section, though we may occasionally add to this blog for Labour-related insights.
08.26: David Cameron has announced he will resign in time for a new Prime Minster in place by Conservative party conference in October.
“The will of the British people is an instruction that must be delivered. It must not be taken lightly. There can be no doubt about the result.
“I fought this campaign in the only way I know how, which is to say directly and passionately what I think and feel. Head, heart and soul. I held nothing back. I was absolutely clear about my believe Britain is stronger, safer and better off in the European Union.
“But the British poeple ahve made a clear decision to take a different path. I believe the country needs fresh leadership to take it in the new decision
“I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain to steer the country to this next destination.
There is no need for a precise timeline. But a new leader in place by start of Conservative party conference in October.”
08.15: Cameron is about to make a speech. It is rumoured he will resign.
07.38: Jeremy Corbyn has spoken about the result on the BBC, saying we must observe article 50 as soon as possible.
Here are some exerts from what he said
“The British people have made their decision. We must respect that result and Article 50 has to be invoked now so that we negotiate an exit from European Union.
“I think a lot of the the message that’s come back from this is that many communities are fed up with cuts they’ve had, fed up with economic dislocation and feel very angry at the way they’ve been betrayed and marginalised by successive governments in very poor areas of the country.
“My point throughout the campaign was we must have an alternative to austerity, we had to have more resources going into areas that have seen huge changes.
“We now have to try to protect the working conditions we have in the country between densely populated urban areas and the rest of the country. And to ensure obviously there are some trade opportunities for Britain because clearly there are some very difficult days ahead.
“There will be job consequences as a result of this decision. We have to do everything we can to protect jobs and working conditions in Britain.
“Obviously there has to be strategy but the whole point of the referendum was that the public would be asked their opinion. They’ve given their opinion. It is up for parliament to now act on that opinion.
“Quite clearly negotiations must take place. There must be the best deal possible in order to ensure strong industries in Britain stay strong and strong industries that have big export markets protect retain those export markets. But we are in some very difficult areas. That’s obvious to everybody.
07.30: Kate Hoey, Labour MP and Leave campaigner, has said that during the campaign Labour voters said they felt they weren’t being listened to.
07.18: Diane Abbott has said criticisms of Jeremy Corbyn for his more muted support of the EU are misguided, and people will continue to blame the Labour leader of any problem regardless of what he does.
07.05: All voting areas have declared. The final numbers are Leave 52 per cent, Remain 48 per cent.
Leave won 17,417,742 votes
Remain won 16,141,241 votes
06.54: George Eaton from the New Statesman has tweeted what he says Labour’s lines responding to the result will be. This should serve as a guide for what Labour figures will say throughout the rest of the day
Labour lines to take leaked to me. pic.twitter.com/vZeJPOiXBO
— George Eaton (@georgeeaton) June 24, 2016
06.48: Momentum have released a statement about the result. They say the Labour party must reconnect with working class communities to show the party can offer policies which would allow them to regain “genuine control” over their lives.
06.41: Nigel Farage has said in an interview he does not think the money the UK spent on the EU will go on the NHS – a shock to many left-wing voters who opted for Brexit.
The Leave campaign undertook an egalitarian tone, with Gove saying he wanted to narrow the gap between the “haves” and “have nots”, and claiming that our public services would benefit from Brexit.
Nigel Farage says no we won't be able to spend £350m to the NHS… That was a mistake for Vote Leave to say that, he says…
— Anushka Asthana (@AnushkaAsthana) June 24, 2016
06.37: Brendan Cox, husband of Jo, has tweeted the following:
Today Jo wld have remained optimistic & focussed on what she cld do to bring our country back together around our best values #MoreInCommon
— Brendan Cox (@MrBrendanCox) June 24, 2016
06.29: Diane Abbott has said this vote should be seen as a “roar of defiance” against the establishment. She goes on to say immigration has been used as a proxy for expressing anger about the established order.
She says politicians must do more to listen to the electorate’s worries and do more to bring people together.
She says Corbyn should be praised for taking a position closer to the population than many others, with his more muted, sceptical approval.
She says Project Fear was “completely overdone” when asked if Cameron and Osborne’s approach to the campaign was harmful.
06.20: David Cameron is expected to make a statement soon, before the FTSE opens
06.17: The final figure for turnout is 72 per cent, marginally higher than that which LabourList readers predicted, but far lower than the 83 per cent the Guardian reported.
06.03: John McDonnell has said the Government must act immediately to stabilise the economy.
“People will be waking up this morning to turmoil in the markets and the pound crashing, and fearing the emergency budget the Chancellor threatened to hike their taxes and cut public services.
“The Government must now take steps to stabilise the economy, and to protect jobs, pensions and wages. Labour will not allow any instability to be paid for by the working people of this country.”
Earlier, economist Robert Peston said he anticipated bond prices would increase significantly today, which is a sign the UK can expect a major recession.
06.02: London, Scotland and Northern Ireland are the only parts of the UK who have voted for a majority Remain vote.
All major ports pointing at Europe – Hull, Ipswich/Felixstowe, Hartlepool, as well as everywhere in the North East except Newcastle – have voted to Leave.
06.00: It is now statistically impossible for Remain to win.
05.52: Gisela Stuart, one of the few Labour MPs who voted to leave, has said the result is a “surpise” given the might of the Government was to stay in the EU. She says politicians now have responsibility to act in the best interests of the nation
In her victory speech she used a few words in German, she says to show that the UK is “open and outward looking” still. She says it is only the undemocratic structure of the EU that has been rejected.
She says market volatility is “hysteria” and overreaction, and the country needs a calmer reaction.
She says politicians should reflect on whether they have lost touch with what the voters really want, but that the country should not have a general election.
05.42 As things stand, Leave is at 16,285,959 and Remain is at 15,190,394. Leave need only 373,500 votes to win officially.
05.40 Here are the Google trends for people in the UK searching for information about moving to Canada, New Zealand or Australia.
05.36 Gisela Stuart has begun Leave’s success speech. We’ll have info on her speech asap.
Before that Alastair Campbell questioned whether David Cameron can cope with the humiliation of undergoing the negotiations with Europe we now must undertake. It has been reported elsewhere Andy Coulson has said Cameron is thinking of resigning.
05.32: Another London counting area has declared. Lewisham has voted 69.9 per cent to Remain, a very high result, and again showing the divide between cities and the rest of the country which has dominated the referendum.
05.31: Emily Thornberry has criticised Andrea Leadsom, who has suggested we take a slower approach to Brexit and accept that markets will be volatile.
She says if the pound is spiraling, taking time to think about it is not an option.
She says many things were blamed on Europe that were not Europe’s fault, and the result was chosen because it was a kickback on the establishment.
05.19 – Northern Ireland voted almost 50 pc against the EU in 1975, but that has dropped slightly this time round. They’ve voted in favour of Remain by a few more points. Martin McGuinness has said previously he will demand a referendum on Irish reunification in the case of Brexit.
Only 38 per cent of Scots voted to Leave, leading to heavy speculation regarding the future of the Union when Scotland is at odds with England.
05.14: While the pound has dropped to it’s lowest levels since 2008, one saving grace is that the result has not been called during financial trading hours. Many warned that if the result was not known until the London Stock Exchange opened at 8am we could see one of the most economically volatile days ever recorded.
05.03: Chuku Umunna has added his take.
He has said the “Take Back Control” mantra is misleading. He said those proposing the idea of taking back control “do not believe in active government”, for example on the economy, and do not believe is intervening to make it work for people.
He adds this is ultimately why immigration arguments have prevailed. People didn’t see the economy working for them.
He finishes by saying that whatever happens going forward now, we need to recognise how divided the result is.
04.55: Keith Vaz has said Leave won because they could “appeal to the emotions of local people”. He said “they’ve rejected all the experts, and the views of almost everyone in Parliament, but we have to respect this decision.”
Vaz adds politicians now must “to work to get the best deal irrespective of our own position.”
04.40: ITV and BBC have called it for Leave.
04.30: Labour are now calling for Cameron to resign (basically): “If we vote to leave, Cameron should seriously consider his position.”
04.26: Nigel Farage has just made a victory speech that was, in many ways, the most harrowing point tonight. He said that the Out campaign won “without a single bullet being fired”.
I doubt he missed the news last week. I doubt he didn’t realise what people would think about when he said that. The only question left is: why on earth did he say it?
04.03: Manchester goes 60/40 to Remain – what you would expect if it was going 50/50 nationwide, which is about right, except for the fact that turnout in Manchester is lower than UK average.
03.47: We are still well on course for a close finish, but it is harder and harder to see how Remain wins. We are almost at a point where you can call it – but it would be sensible to wait until after Birmingham and Manchester come in. Manchester has just a 59% turnout though.
One big takeaway you can have now though: it is a very, very bad night for Labour. Outside of cities, Remain has been roundly trounced. Think of a Labour seat not in a city: you can almost guarantee it voted Out. Now is not the time to worry; it’s much too late for that.
03.16: Here is a swathe of bad news. ITV put chance of Brexit at 75%. Darlington, supposed EU bellwether, votes Leave 56% to 44%. And then there’s this:
Stronger In source makes London-wide forecast of 62% for Remain.
— Conor Pope (@Conorpope) June 24, 2016
03.07: Birmingham, another place we’re hoping Remain does well, is also on course to have a lower turnout than the national average, with 63.7%.
But Remain did overachieve in Liverpool, with 58%. But elsewhere in the Labour North West, voters are backing Brexit: Blackburn with Darwen, Hyndburn, Wigan, St Helens are all backing Out.
Across the country it is currently almost exactly neck and neck.
02.53: Bizarre speculation around that Greenwich is too close to call. It seems a bit hard to believe.
The story of last year’s general election was that, while the polls were on a knife edge, feedback from the doorstep was largely proved correct – and given the Tories’ lead on the economy and security, the result made sense.
The polls have been on a knife edge again – but while Remain has had the lead on economy and security, the feedback from the doorstep has all been that Leave is doing well. So which will prevail?
02.31: This is what we were waiting for. Remain really racking up the votes in London and doing slightly better than expected in Wandsworth, which goes 75% for In.
However, turnout is still lower than national average.
02.26: First London result in very Labour Lambeth and a massive In win, raking in 78% of the vote. However, turnout was only 67%, below the current national average of 70%.
02.21: Turnout in Manchester is only 60% – way below what we’re seeing elsewhere. Remain is running out of routes to victory.
02.04: Remain is currently getting hammered in Wales. Leave won in Swansea. If Remain wins – as is becoming increasingly unlikely – it’s hard to see how this is going to be anything other than a bad night for Labour.
02.00: Turnout is disappointing in pro-Remain Scotland, and Labour are quick to point the finger at the SNP. A Labour source said:
“Turnout in Scotland has been considerably lower than expected.
“The SNP, the dominant party which ran huge campaigns for the independence referendum, UK election and Scottish elections, has run a lacklustre campaign with minimal ground activity.
“Sturgeon had more to say about criticising the Remain camp than making the positive case for Europe and she was nowhere to be seen until the dying days of the campaign.”
01.25: A Labour source gets in touch with a stark opening line: “A significant minority of Labour voters have undoubtedly voted for Leave.” That’s not the most bullish way to begin a briefing, and whispers coming from the Stronger In campaign have lost a lot of confidence in the last hour.
The Labour In source also said that people in places like Sunderland had used the referendum as a chance to kick the Tories by voting Out: “After David Cameron and the Tories made this a referendum on them and their leadership, many of the areas hardest hit by this Government’s unfair policies like Sunderland have taken the opportunity this referendum as a means to kick a Conservative government that is out of touch.
“This was a vote against a government that has failed to rebalance the economy, and has failed to deliver the Northern Powerhouse that it keeps promising.
“Our private polling has consistently shown from the beginning of the campaign that about two thirds of Labour voters supported remain and we expect that to be borne out in the results. A clear majority of Labour voters support remaining in Europe, unlike Tory voters.”
01.10: If it carries on like this Labour is going to kick off tomorrow. Shadow Home Secretary Andy Burnham is talking about beginning a review of freedom of movement, while Alastair Campbell is on BBC warning about the problems Labour faces. Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell says that people are “cheesed off” about issues like migration.
00.54: Starting to see the fractures in Britain. Swindon, another should-be Labour target, has gone heavily to Leave, while Lewisham and Edinburgh are both projected to be huuuuuuugely pro-Remain.
However, turnout in pro-Remain Glasgow is a disappointing 56%. That’ll put the jitters up the In campaign.
00.46: Looks like a big Leave vote in north Warwickshire (exactly the kind of swing areas Labour needs to win back to get back into power) and in Hartlepool (another traditional heartland for Labour).
00.28: Sunderland result is in, and it’s a very large victory for Leave – 61% to 39%. Again, this is not great for Labour, with another traditional heartland rejecting the party’s position.
Earlier, I said that lower than 60 per cent for Leave there would be good news for In. We’ve not had that, and it is very good news for Leave, but it is not game over.
I think what we’re going to see is similar to the general election last year, where there is volatility in the results depending on geography.
A Labour source just told me that they expect there to be very big wins for Remain in Remain areas and very big wins for Leave in Leave areas. That sounds about right to me – it’ll be a while before we can really extrapolate local results to a national picture.
The source said: “There has been a strong turnout, higher than the General Election in many areas. Early indications showing more divergence than we expected – i.e. bigger leads than expected for Remain in likely Remain areas but also bigger leads for Leave in likely Leave areas.”
00.06: Newcastle have pipped Sunderland first to declare on the mainland, and it’s pretty terrible for Remain.
Remain slightly edged it with 50.7%, but it was predicted that it would need to be almost 60% for the campaigns to be level-pegging across the country.
It’s also bad news for Labour: the first result is also the first real sign that Labour’s traditional heartlands are not as supportive of the EU as the party line would suggest.
23.48: Newcastle is close to declaring. A high 66.7 per cent turnout there, and the BBC are reporting a marginal victory for Remain. That’s not good enough for Remain, and may set jitters in – but my sources have been pretty happy so far.
23.40: One hour ahead cheating Gibraltar have their result in with a thumping 96 per cent for Remain on 84 per cent turnout.
Sunderland (confirmed 64 per cent turnout) is thought to be an early announcement, and will certainly back an Out vote. But by how much? Some say as high as 62 per cent, others suggest it may only be 55 per cent. Anything lower than 60 per cent for Leave there would be very, very good news for In.
23.35: You can now see the full results of the LabourList survey here.
23.27: Who will be the big Labour figure tonight? I’m expecting Jeremy Corbyn to make some remarks once the result is in, along the lines of what sources told me at 22.30) and Labour In chair Alan Johnson will certainly have something to say.
But it will be Gisela Stuart, the Labour MP for Edgbaston and Vote Leave co-chair, who will have the biggest role. It will be her – rather than Boris or Gove – making the concession or victory speech for the Leave campaign in Manchester.
22.09: As far as I understand it, Nigel Farage has so far conceded defeat, unconceded, reconceded, and reunconceded. There’s about eight hours left.
22.57: LABOURLIST READERS CALL IT FOR REMAIN.
Or, the ones who voted in our survey this week think so, anyway.
Around 70 per cent of the 1,658 people who took part in this week’s survey predict an In vote – although just over half think that Remain will only have a small victory, finishing with between 50 and 54 per cent of the vote.
Over 80 per cent of those who took part also said that they personally voted to stay in the EU – a bit higher than 70/30 split pollsters have been putting Labour supporters at. The full results of our survey will be up shortly.
Expect this news to settle the markets.
22.46: Another on-the-day poll calls it for Remain. Ipsos-MORI have it 54 per cent – 46 per cent for In.
22.40: Votes are being counted by local authority districts, rather than constituencies. First, we expect announcements from Gibraltar (who are cheating by being an hour ahead) then Newcastle (probably Remain) and Sunderland (probably Leave).
But who will take the much sought after LabourList Tower Hamlets Award for last to announce? Harborough, Waveney and Arun (all probably Out) are expected to declare around 7am.
22.30: One senior Labour source simply says it is “too early” to say anything, but another suggests says the leadership will be happy that the UK looks to have listened to Labour’s message of reform and voted to stay in – but politicians “need to respect that almost half the country aren’t happy with EU”.
22.25: No exit polls tonight – it’s impossible to carry them out properly – but there are a few polls out for close of voting:
- YouGov have it for Remain, 52 per to 48 per cent
- Leave.EU (not the official Out campaign) says it carried out a big polling operation over final days, that gives it to Leave by 52 per cent to 48 per cent
- Nigel Farage has basically conceded, saying he thinks “Remain will edge it”, and the Stronger In campaign are confident.
22.11: There are plenty of anecdotal reports of high turnout (my local polling station in Remain-strong South London had reached around 25 per cent after just a few hours) and this could seriously slow down when we get a final result. Turnout in Remain-heavy Scotland is predicted to be between 70 per cent to 80 per cent, for instance.
In fact, it’ll be a couple of hours before we get any results at all, but we should be able to extrapolate out the final result from local announcements. This is far from a perfect way to do it – being unable to properly compare to previous election results – but my inkling is that we’ll have a pretty good idea from even the earliest results.
What we will be able to do is see how much support there is for Leave in Labour areas, which could cause us problems even if In wins by a big margin. You can see my take on that here.
22.00: POLLS CLOSED. Election night is a time to be spent with your nearest, dearest and weariest, as you huddle around the warmth of the traditional LabourList liveblog. Settle in, it’s going to be a long night.
As a Labour leader once tweeted: “Ere we, ere we, ere we f…”