How a Brexit breakthrough would raise tensions in Labour

The long-awaited Brexit breakthrough? It might have just happened, according to Westminster bubble chat. The Prime Minister met with the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, yesterday and came out with a surprisingly positive joint statement. Despite the bitter briefings we’ve seen over the last week, the two leaders said they can now see a “pathway to a possible deal” following a “detailed and constructive discussion”. The shift in tone and their fresh optimism has fuelled speculation that Boris Johnson might just have the opportunity to present a deal to the House of Commons on the special ‘Super Saturday’ sitting next weekend. He could “get Brexit done” sooner than we thought.

“No one’s cracking open the champagne… don’t even pour a pint of warm Guinness,” Laura Kuenssberg reports one insider as having joked. It is important to tread carefully: we’ve been here before – both in terms of raised hopes and probably the solution itself – and the deadlock was not broken then. And other than a vague reference to “the challenges of customs and consent”, the press has not yet been leaked any details of the proposal.

But if the unthinkable happens and a deal is agreed that does satisfy the Prime Minister, Varadkar, the other EU leaders, the DUP, the European Research Group and the Conservative Party’s softer Brexiteers… the focus will turn to a potential Labour rebellion. Earlier this week, 19 Labour MPs wrote to Jean-Claude Juncker reiterating their willingness to vote for a deal. Lisa Nandy estimated last weekend that “about 40” in total have been working cross-party to secure one. Some of this group are fussy about the details, while others have made it clear they simply want to get an agreement through and if it’s good enough for the EU it will do just fine.

The hope is that aside from respecting the 2016 result, to get a deal through would resolve at least the first stage of Brexit and allow any early general election to be fought on domestic issues. It should be noted that this same argument about ‘resolving’ Brexit first, though applied differently, has been made by Tom Watson and others in favour of holding a fresh referendum before an election. Any Labour MP who is prepared to help pass a Brexit deal certainly won’t have the backing of pro-Remain party members – though with a number of MPs not seeking reselection and many more flying through trigger ballots with ease, that pressure might not have the potency it once did.

What of the wider labour movement? TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady’s piece for LabourList today is a warning to these MPs: you better not vote for a Johnson deal, or working people will pay the price. But at the start of September, Len McCluskey did suggest Unite the Union would protect and support MPs who vote for a deal. Labour tensions would be high if an agreement were put to the Commons – for now, though, we must wait and see whether this development really is a breakthrough. Sign up to LabourList’s morning email for everything Labour, every weekday morning.