Why is Keir Starmer ahead in Labour’s leadership election?

Labour’s leadership election is flagging a little. There are no big policy announcements that are detailed enough for members to really consider in depth, which is frustrating. Beyond open selections, backed only by Rebecca Long-Bailey so far, clear political differences between the candidates are not being made evident. (The deputy race has this issue and also the matter of how to approach tackling antisemitism in Labour, as Richard Burgon and Dawn Butler have not signed the Board of Deputies pledges.) This fairly lifeless contest – so dissimilar to the one we saw in 2015 – undoubtedly benefits frontrunner Keir Starmer, whose early lead has not been reversed, and Lisa Nandy, whose reputation as ‘the thoughtful one’ goes unchallenged.

This is not to say that candidates aren’t busy. Last night, Emily Thornberry spoke at a hustings in Bromley. (Grace Blakeley was speaking on behalf of both Rebecca Long-Bailey and Richard Burgon there, which members present found a bit odd. The inconsequential nature of the Long-Bailey/Rayner ‘ticket’ probably didn’t need highlighting.) Lisa Nandy spoke in Delyn, North Wales. Keir Starmer addressed supporters in Stratford, where he called for the party to give “full access” to the Equality and Human Rights Commission. He also answered the Labour for Free Movement questionnaire – not committing to free movement or going beyond Labour’s manifesto in any way, but the campaign group appreciated his respect for the deadline.

Long-Bailey held an event in Oxford, where she attracted a very decent crowd at short notice. It followed a campaign day that saw a video of her talking about the 2016 leadership challenge gain traction on social media. At an event for ex-MP Ronnie Campbell, she told a story of how the shadow Treasury team was sabotaged when shared files about the Finance Bill were deleted. Rob Marris, the coup participant in question, has commented that the work “belonged to me” and it is wrong “to imply I stole Labour Party information”.

The story is helpful to Long-Bailey in that it shows off her loyal and hard-working attitude, and prompts people to point out that Starmer and Nandy were among those frontbenchers who resigned. But Momentum then sent a campaign email based on the story, which tried to formalise an advantage that had been growing organically. Critics of this move suggested it gave the impression that her campaign team was trying and failing to recreate the conditions of Labour’s 2016 leadership election.

The truth is that loyalty to the leader is still valued as a quality, but Labour members want to back winners in this contest. It is worth noting that affiliated trade union Community, which had been expected to nominate Jess Phillips before she pulled out of the race, picked Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner yesterday. Not Ian Murray for deputy, despite him being the more Corbynsceptic option.

There is a feeling among Labour members that they desperately want to win something: they may have lost the 2019 general election, but they can still win the 2020 leadership selection. Starmer’s operation is slick, whereas Long-Bailey’s website looks like it should feature in an exhibition about the early years of the Internet. It also helps Starmer that members are trying to second-guess how the British electorate will feel about the leadership candidates in 2024, which is a futile endeavour but one that has caught imaginations nonetheless.

If local party nominations are anything to go by – and remember, there is a freeze date for those votes that doesn’t apply to the final ballot, which means the influx of new members is not being reflected – Starmer’s rivals have a lot of catching up to do. Everything could change, but time is running out.