‘Could SNP and Tory talk of a Labour landslide fuel complacency on the left?’

Once hailed as the great saviour from Conservative rule, discussion of tactical voting has been conspicuous by its absence during the election campaign. In a mark at the extent to which the Tories have been written off, the Best for Britain tactical voting guide has been released today to little fanfare – in stark contrast to the 2019. 

If the polls are to be believed, our first-past-the-post system could soon deliver what even the Tories acknowledge could be a huge Labour landslide. The most recent projections suggest Labour could achieve a majority of 272 seats, the largest since the 1931 emergency coalition government formed in response to the Great Depression. 

Traditionally, tactical voting is a serious force because nothing quite unites people like a common enemy.

READ MORE: 2024 manifesto versus 1997: ‘There are big similarities, but big differences’

The rallying cry ‘Vote Labour to get rid of the Tories’ will continue to bring together a broad group of people who may agree on little else. 

However, as a Conservative defeat seems more and more likely, this unifying force is less appealing than it once was. Will voters driven more by disdain for the Conservatives than enthusiasm for Keir Starmer be motivated to turn out at all? 

Or will those who do turn out feel liberated to vote for a smaller party they are more aligned with, assuming we are heading for a Labour government regardless? 

Challenges to Labour

This scenario poses a challenge for Labour across the country. In Brighton and Bristol, the Greens pose a real challenge to Labour candidates among affluent liberal voters. Meanwhile, constituencies with significant Muslim populations might be swayed toward the likes of Galloway’s party by the war in Gaza. 

But in Scotland in particular, Labour’s continued dominance in the polls has created an unusual dynamic. The SNP have turned their fire on Labour during the campaign as if it were already the incumbent government – attempting to frame the upcoming election as something of a midterm.

The SNP has long capitalised on dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and it’s no coincidence that their dominance came about during their time in power. 

READ MORE: Tactical voting website says vote Labour in Bristol Central and Sheffield Hallam

With their usual message of opposing the Tories losing relevance, the SNP is now being forced to pivot. During the recent debates, Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s leader in Westminster, acknowledged Labour’s strong position in the polls but criticised the party repeatedly on spending plans and Europe.

On paper, this makes sense. A soft independence supporter driven by a desire to oust the Conservatives but conscious a referendum is not around the corner may be considering lending Labour their vote. But on hearing that, they may not feel the need.

However, attempts to frame the election as a midterm referendum on Labour overlooks a crucial distinction: the SNP are a party of power, not just a party of protest. The SNP’s poor record of delivery is now weighing on them heavily, while its leadership turmoil rivals the chaos seen at No.10 – if not surpassing it.

Labour’s next steps

But that is not to overlook the fact Labour’s broad but shallow support could be vulnerable to three more weeks of negative campaigning from the SNP. In this context, the SNP’s best hope could be to suppress turnout, converting potential Labour voters into non-voters to preserve their hold on certain seats.

Labour’s strategy in response is crucial. Their clever counter-narrative urging voters to ‘send a government’ to Westminster effectively exposes the impotence of the SNP’s ‘send a message’ rhetoric. But Labour should not shy away from fighting fire with fire, exploiting divisions within the independence movement to encourage the nationalist base to remain at home.  

So while the polls continue to point to a landslide, Labour need to be alive to the dynamics of complacency and apathy which may yet throw up surprises on election night.

Find out more through our wider  2024 Labour party manifesto coverage so far…

OVERVIEW:

Manifesto launch: Highlights, reaction and analysis as it happened

Full manifesto costs breakdown – and how tax and borrowing fund it

The key manifesto policy priorities in brief

Manifesto NHS and health policies – at a glance

Manifesto housing policy – at a glance

Manifesto Palestine policy – at a glance

Manifesto immigration policies – at a glance

ANALYSIS AND REACTION:

‘The manifesto’s not perfect, but at the launch you could feel change is coming’

 IPPR: ‘Labour’s manifesto is more ambitious than the Ming vase strategy suggests’

‘Victory will be short-lived unless Labour fixes broken services with proper funding and public ownership’

Socialist Health Association warns Labour under-funding risks NHS ‘decline’

 ‘The manifesto shows a new centrism, with the state key driving growth’

 Fabians: ‘This a substantial core offer, not the limit of Labour ambition’

 ‘No surprises, but fear not: Labour manifesto is the start, not the end’

 ‘What GB energy will do and why we desperately need it’

 ‘Labour’s health policies show a little-noticed radicalism’

 GMB calls manifesto ‘vision of hope’ but Unite says ‘not enough’

 IFS: Manifesto doesn’t raise enough cash to fund ‘genuine change’

 Watch as Starmer heckled by protestor with ‘youth deserve better’ banner

POLICY NEWS:

 Labour vows to protect green belt despite housebuilding drive

 Manifesto commits to Brexit and being ‘confident’ outside EU

 Labour to legislate on New Deal within 100 days – key policies breakdown 

 Labour to give 16-year-olds right to vote

 Starmer says ‘manifesto for wealth creation’ will kickstart growth

Read more of our 2024 general election coverage here.

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