24 for ’24: Key general election seat results you need to watch – and when

It’s finally election day, and pre-polling day surveys suggest Labour is now tantalisingly close to returning to government for the first time in 14 years.

Look out for our live-blog and Labour results tracker for results as they come in, but what are the key seats that might give us some indication of the state of the parties as the election night plays out?

Here are 24 seats to watch for 2024…

Information citing polls is based on voting intention survey data collected prior to polling day. Declaration times are estimates collated by PA Media.

Houghton and Sunderland South (11.45pm): Early declaration

This is the seat most likely to declare first on election night. Although traditionally Houghton and Sunderland South is a safe Labour seat, the party came within eight percentage points of losing the constituency in 2019.

The result here will be widely seen as an early barometer of the type of swing we might see in other historic Labour strongholds – including parts of the “red wall” lost to the Tories at the last election.

The seat also has a special significance at this election, with Labour’s candidate Bridget Phillipson likely to become the Education Secretary if the party forms the next government.

Broxbourne (12.15am): True blue territory

Previously held by Charles Walker for the Conservatives, this Hertfordshire constituency has voted Tory ever since it was created in 1983.

Should Labour’s Catherine Deakin win here, it would be a huge blow to the Conservatives and be widely taken as a sign that the Tories are on course for a crushing election defeat.

Swindon South (12.30am): Key bellwether

Swindon South has been held by the Conservatives since 2010, and is being defended by former Justice Secretary Robert Buckland. Being a bellwether constituency since it was created in 1997, this seat will be one of the best early indications of how the country may swing on election night.

Labour’s candidate is a familiar face – Heidi Alexander served as the MP for Lewisham East from 2010 to 2018, and also held the post of deputy mayor of London for transport from 2018 to 2021.

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Cramlington and Killingworth (12.45am): Red wall recovery

This new seat in the North East includes most of the now-abolished constituency of Blyth Valley, which was one of the first bricks to fall in the red wall early on on election night in 2019.

It means any Labour breakthrough in the constituency, previously held by Conservative Ian Levy, has particular significance and is likely to be read as a promising sign of Labour’s chances across the red wall more widely.

However, Labour had only needed a 2.2 percentage point swing from the Tories to win, and experts suggest boundary changes mean that Labour would have actually won the seat in 2019 had the new boundaries been in place then. Recapturing plenty of other Red Wall seats looks much tougher.

East Kilbride and Strathaven (1.30am): Scottish recovery

This new constituency has had a chequered history, having previously been won by Labour before being swept away by the SNP in 2015. However, outgoing SNP MP Lisa Cameron defected to the Conservatives after falling out with party leadership.

To win here, Labour requires a swing of almost 13 percentage points, but pollsters have previously forecast Joani Reid, the party’s candidate, will win by a comfortable margin in a swing across the Scottish Central Belt.

Paisley and Renfrewshire South (2.15am): Former NEC chair’s bid

Once the seat of former cabinet member Douglas Alexander (now standing in East Lothian), this constituency was one of the disappointing moments for Labour in 2015, when the SNP’s Mhairi Black swept to victory as the party won almost all the seats in Scotland.

With Black standing down at this election, and with Labour coming within 3,000 votes of winning in 2017, the party has hopes of turning the constituency red once again.

To win, Labour would need to secure a 12pp swing, with most forecasters predicting the party’s candidate Johanna Baxter, a former chair of Labour’s national executive committee, will make it over the line and into Parliament.

Rochdale (2.30am): The Galloway test

Rochdale, at the last election, was a safe Labour constituency. However, since a by-election earlier this year, the seat has been held by George Galloway and his Workers Party of Great Britain – a moment of huge disappointment for Labour.

More than four months on from that by-election, political journalist Paul Waugh is leading the charge for Labour to win back the constituency. However, some forecasters have predicted a close race – could Galloway manage to hold a by-election gain at a general election?

North Durham (2.30am): Luke Akehurst’s run

North Durham was held by Labour by just under 5,000 votes at the last general election, having been a much safer seat in previous years.

While the prospect of a Labour loss here is unlikely, the seat remains noteworthy for Labour’s candidate – Labour First stalwart and NEC member Luke Akehurst, who secured the candidacy within days of nominations closing following the decision of Kevan Jones to stand down.

Akehurst’s staunchly pro-Israel views have sparked criticism among some on the left, but his selection may reflect gratitude high up in the party for his organising work in transforming Labour since the Jeremy Corbyn era.

He previously ran for election in Aldershot in 2001 and Castle Point in 2005 – can he make it third time lucky?

Burnley (2.45am): A must-fall domino

Burnley is an absolute must-win for Labour. Based on the new constituency boundaries, the seat is the most marginal in the country and needs only a 0.1 percentage point swing to turn red.

Before the 2019 election, Burnley had backed Labour at almost every election since 1918 (the exceptions being 1931 and 2010). Conservative Antony Higginbotham won the constituency from Julie Cooper by just 1,352 votes in 2019.

Mid Bedfordshire (2.45am): The toughest of tests in the shires

Mid Bedfordshire was a traditionally Conservative seat, backing the Tories at every election since 1931 until Labour won a by-election in the constituency last year.

The winner, Alistair Strathern, is however not fighting re-election in this seat, instead contesting the neighbouring constituency of Hitchin after boundary changes.

While Mid Bedfordshire is not a seat on Labour’s priority list, requiring a staggering 20 percent swing based on the 2019 notional result, YouGov’s final MRP of the election forecast a Labour gain, with a lead of six percent over the Tories.

Chingford and Woodford Green (3.00am): Three-horse race

Held by the former Conservative Party leader Iain Duncan Smith, Labour needs only a 1.5 percent Tory-Labour swing versus 2019 to secure this must-win seat on paper.

However, Labour has faced controversy over the candidate selection for the seat after Faiza Shaheen was deselected days before the deadline for nominations. Shaheen is now standing as an independent. The contest threatens to split the left vote and prevent either Labour’s Shama Tatler or Shaheen from ousting IDS.

Despite this, most forecasts predict Tatler to emerge as the winner once all the votes are counted.

Islington North (3.00am): The fate of Jeremy Corbyn

All eyes will be on this seat, as former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn fights for re-election against his old party.

Corbyn was suspended and later expelled from Labour over his response to a report into antisemitism under his leadership. His decision to stand as an independent to keep the seat he has held since 1983 has divided the constituency Labour Party, as has the selection of Praful Nargund as the party’s replacement candidate.

Should Labour defeat Corbyn, it would signal a hammer blow to those on the left of Labour and solidify Keir Starmer’s control of the party.

Nuneaton (3.00am): The classic marginal seat

Nuneaton has become an important bellwether of recent elections, in particular 2015 – when it was the first marginal to signal a swing to the Conservatives, indicating the Tories had secured an overall majority.

Tory MP Marcus Jones secured a 13,000 vote majority at the last general election but it is widely expected, if the polls are right, that Labour will secure the 14.5 percent swing needed to win.

Stevenage (3.00am): Winning over Stevenage Woman

Discussion about the importance of Stevenage Woman has garned many headlines in the lead-up to this election, being described by Starmerite think tank Labour Together as the crucial demographic Labour needs to win.

‘Stevenage Woman’ has been profiled as a suburban mother in her early 40s, disillusioned with politics, and who may have voted for the Conservatives in 2019 but is leaning towards Labour this time.

Stevenage last flipped to Labour in the 1997 general election, before being won by Conservative Stephen McPartland, who secured an 8,562 vote majority at the last election.

The seat is a core part of Labour’s path to a simple majority, with Kevin Bonavia needing a nine-point swing from the Tories to Labour in order to win.

Whitehaven and Workington (3.00am): What about Workington Man?

Home to Workington Man, another crude voter stereotype that dominated discussion and debate at the 2019 election, this constituency will also be seen as an interesting litmus test for the kind of voters that Labour needs to win to secure a majority.

The new constituency, merges parts of Copeland (notable for being lost by Labour in a by-election in 2017) and Workington. Mark Jenkinson, the current MP, is not standing for re-election in the seat and is instead contesting Penrith and Solway.

Labour’s Josh MacAlister requires only a 2.2pp swing in order to grab the must-win seat from Conservative hands.

LabourList reported earlier this year on frustration that some Workington men, and women, would be denied a selection vote amid boundary changes.

Bristol Central (3.15am): Red-on-green fight

In Bristol Central, Shadow Culture Secretary Thangam Debbonaire is fighting to keep her place in Parliament amid a rise in support for the Green Party.

The seat is one of four targetted by the Greens, with the party gaining every councillor in the newly-drawn constituency at local elections in May.

While one pre-polling day survey in the constituency put the Greens nine points ahead, forecasters and activists on the ground said in the lead-up that the race would come down to the wire.

READ MORE: Inside Labour’s Bristol battle to counter the insurgent Green Party

Cities of London and Westminster (3.30am): The heart of power

While different colours of government have come and gone through SW1A, the party representing the constituency Parliament sits in has remained the same sine 1965 – Conservative. But for how much longer?

The Tory majority in the seat tumbled to just over 3,000 at the 2017 election and, although Labour was pushed to third in 2019, the party’s candidate Rachel Blake was hopeful of winning this seat in the lead-up.

Requiring a 5.7 percent swing to win, it is one of the 126 seats Labour would likely need to win to secure a majority in the House of Commons – and victory in the historic seats of financial and political power would mark a significant public relations coup for Labour…

Dover and Deal (3.30am): Coastal fight for an unusual Labour ‘hold’

To secure not just a majority, but a sizeable one, Labour needs to win seats across South East England, including the newly-named constituency of Dover and Deal, analysis suggests.

Held by Labour under Tony Blair, the constituency was most recently held by Natalie Elphicke, the Tory who won in 2019 controversially defected to Labour earlier this year.

READ MORE: Small boats and Tory mutineers – can veteran Mike Tapp win Dover and Deal?

Standing for Labour in Dover and Deal is veteran Mike Tapp, who is hoping to secure the just over 12pp swing needed to win the seat from the Tories’ 2019 tally.

North West Leicestershire (3.30am): Test of Starmer’s cut-through deep in Tory territory

North West Leicestershire has backed the winning party at the general election since it was created in 1983, with then-Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen winning a 20,000+ vote majority in 2019.

However, Bridgen is now standing as an independent after he sparked controversy for his views surrounding the Covid pandemic and the vaccine roll-out.

Although the constituency is seemingly not a must-win for Labour based on the results of the last election, the party’s candidate Amanda Hack could turn the seat red if she can secure a 18.3 percent swing.

Notably it was one of the seats Starmer visited in the final stages of the campaign, suggesting a striking level of Labour confidence even where Tory defeat once looked unthinkable.

Wimbledon (3.45am): Rare yellow-red-blue fight

Wimbledon is a rare constituency, in that there is a three-way fight between the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. While Labour held the seat between 1997 and 2005, the Liberal Democrats have sought to tout themselves as the opposition to the Tories after they came within 700 votes of winning in 2019.

READ MORE: Battle of the bar charts: Inside Wimbledon’s rare election three-horse race

The south-west London constituency, which requires a 9.5 percent swing for a Labour win, is one of the 126 that analysis suggests the party needs to win in order to secure a simple majority.

Dartford (4.00am): The most bellwether of bellwethers?

Dartford in Kent reportedly has the title of being the longest serving bellwether constituency in the UK, alternating between Labour and the Conservatives in line with the national result since 1964.

At the last election, Gareth Johnson won for the Conservatives with a 19,000 vote majority – a win for Labour’s Jim Dickson would perhaps be the final confirmation, if needed by this point in the night, that the Conservatives are heading for opposition.

Brighton Pavilion (4.30am): Can Labour oust the one Green?

The Green Party have won Brighton Pavilion at every election since 2010, but Labour are hopeful of taking back the seat following the decision by Caroline Lucas to stand down and victory at local elections in 2023.

The seat faces the opposite race of Bristol Central, where an insurgent Labour Party is hopeful of toppling the incumbent Greens after more than a decade.

READ MORE: Brighton Pavilion – can Labour win the Greens’ only seat?

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr (4.30am): Upset hopes in Wales

Once held by the eccentric Liberal Democrat MP Lembit Opik, Labour has never won Montgomeryshire, but recent polls suggest the party could make history in this north Wales constituency today.

YouGov’s final pre-polling day MRP forecast a Labour win, securing at least a 14.4 percent swing and putting the party on track for a Blair-style landslide.

One factor working in Labour’s favour is the lack of a Tory candidate officially backed by the party.

While Craig Williams appears as a Conservative on the ballot paper, the party withdrew their support for him after he confirmed he had put a bet on the date on the general election.

North East Somerset and Hanham (4.30am): Dan Norris’ revenge on Rees-Moog

By this point, we should hopefully have an idea of the overall election result, but North East Somerset and Hanham has special significance for being the constituency of former Cabinet minister and GB News commentator Jacob Rees-Mogg.

READ MORE: Can Labour mayor consign Jacob Rees-Mogg to history?

If polls from recent weeks are to be believed, West of England Mayor and former Wansdyke MP Dan Norris – ousted by his Tory rival in 2010 – will overturn Rees-Mogg’s substantial majority, adding another senior Conservative to the many Tories facing defeat tonight.

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Read more of our 2024 general election coverage:

North East Somerset and Hanham: Can Labour mayor Dan Norris consign Jacob Rees-Mogg to history?

Finchley and Golders Green: Can Labour win back Britain’s most Jewish seat?

Small boats and Tory mutineers: Can veteran Mike Tapp win Dover and Deal?

East Thanet: Inside the battle for coastal ex-UKIP stronghold not won since 2005

Sheffield Hallam: ‘Can Labour’s Olivia Blake hold on in Nick Clegg’s old seat?’

Battle of the bar charts in Wimbledon: Inside a rare election three-horse race

Could Labour take ‘non-battleground’ Tory seats across the South West?

Meet NHS doctor Zubir Ahmed, fighting one of Scotland’s tightest marginals

Brighton Pavilion: As Starmer visits, can Labour win the Greens’ one seat?

Labour wants a new generation of new towns. Can it win in Milton Keynes?

Meet Gordon McKee, the 29-year-old son of a welder vying for Glasgow South

Revealed: The battlegrounds attracting most activists as 17,000 sign up

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