Many Labour voters who stuck with the party in the 2019 and 2024 General Elections might switch their support in future elections, a new report finds.
Nearly half (48%) of these ‘Loyalists’ who voted Labour in both elections would consider voting for other parties, research carried out by the firm Savanta found. In particular, 28% of them would think about voting Green if an election was held tomorrow,
LabourList will host a panel discussion of the full report at 10:30am on Monday in the ACC (Meeting Room 11A) at Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool. Panellists including Meg Hillier, chair of the Treasury Select Committee, journalists Tom Baldwin and Ros Wynne-Jones, and political data specialist and LabourList board member Karin Christiansen will look at what might threaten Labour’s bid to win a second term.
“Our research lays out the great gamble that Labour appears to be taking with its voting coalition,” said Chris Hopkins, Savanta’s political research director. Under Keir Starmer’s leadership, the party had lost left-wing voters in safe seats in exchange for picking up “more valuable voters elsewhere”, he said.
“That worked in 2024,” said Hopkins. “But the challenge with this approach is that Labour’s precarious electoral coalition risks eroding from the inside out before the next election.”
“We’ve already seen that many Labour strongholds previously considered untouchable are at risk because of Starmer’s strategy,” Hopkins said. Savanta based its findings on research into 3,000 actual and potential Labour supporters this month. Wide but shallow: Where does Labour’s next majority come from? which Savanta worked on in partnership with LabourList, will be published on Monday.
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Four key groups
The report investigated four groups of key voters. “Loyalists” voted Labour in 2019 and 2024, while “Joiners” did not vote Labour in the earlier election, but did in June. “Defectors”, by contrast, did back Labour in 2019 but did not five years later. “Considerers” voted for the party in neither 2019 nor 2024, but will consider doing so in future elections.
Some three in ten “Defectors” (31%) still consider themselves to be Labour, and almost the same proportion have a favourable view of Keir Starmer. Tactical voting may well have driven these voters’ decisions to back other parties, with 31% backing the Liberal Democrats in 2024.
Only 17% of “Defectors” opted to vote for the Nigel Farage-led Reform party, with a much higher proportion (28%) failing to vote at all in 2024. Some 41% of “Defectors” say that Labour lost their vote, while marginally fewer (40%) say that another party earned their support.
‘Joiners’ most satisfied with government
The “Joiners” who Savanta spoke to had mainly (59%) voted Conservative in 2019 before switching to Labour in 2024. Another 18% voted Liberal Democrat five years ago.
This group was the most satisfied with the Labour government’s performance so far, with 62% saying it was up to or above their expectations. By contrast, just under half (47%) of “Loyalists” felt the same.
‘Defectors’ admire Burnham
Different groups of voters have widely varying views on Labour leaders. Among “Loyalists”, prime minister Keir Starmer is the most popular, with a net favorability rating of +49. Deputy leader Angela Rayner (+40) and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham (+38)are also very popular with this group. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has a slightly lower net popularity rating among these voters, at +21.
Starmer also has the highest net favourability rating with “Joiners”, at +40, with Burnham at +17 and Rayner on +15, while Reeves again trails at +10. “Considerers” who might vote Labour in future give Starmer a favourability rating of +27, with Burnham on +20 and Rayner on +15.
Among “Defectors” who switched support from Labour in 2024, the most popular political figure is Burnham, with a net rating of =17. The Green Party’s co-leader Carla Denyer is well ahead of all other Labour figures with this group, earning a with a net favourability rating of +8. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey manages a net rating of +5, but the only other Labour figure to get a positive score is Angela Rayner.
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Similar priorities
All four groups of voters said they had roughly similar priorities for what the government should concentrate on, the research found. The cost of living was the most important issue for 67% of “Loyalists” and “Joiners” alike, and for 69% of “Defectors” and 58% of “Considerers”. All four groups also named the NHS and the economy as the second and third most important issues for them.
Savanta’s associate director Emma Levin said the research “may well confirm fears that Labour’s majority is more fragile than its landslide victory two months ago appears.” The party should not rely on the Tory party “remaining in the doldrums forever,” Levin argued.
If the government was able to deliver on the cost of living and the NHS, it might “continue to win over Conservative voters faster than they lose people elsewhere”, she said. To win back “Defectors”, she said, it could also try to give Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham more prominence.
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