Scottish Labour candidates say voters are ready for change – and that the polls may be wrong

After nearly two decades of SNP government, Scottish Labour candidates say voters are increasingly open to a change of direction – and that the party could yet outperform gloomy polling ahead of May’s election.

Speaking to LabourList at last week’s Scottish Labour conference in Paisley, candidates said the choice between another decade of SNP government and new leadership under Labour had cut through with voters, despite frustration with the national Labour government in Westminster.

With two months until polling day, several candidates argued that polling for Holyrood paints an overly pessimistic picture of Labour’s prospects, pointing to recent by-election results for Westminster and the Scottish Parliament, alongside what they described as a growing frustration with the SNP on the doorstep.

Kieron Higgins, Labour’s candidate in Coatbridge and Chryston, said that there remains a “solid Labour vote” having spoken to thousands of people already on the campaign trail.

“I think the Scottish electorate are pretty sophisticated when it comes to devolved and Westminster elections. People in Scotland voted for change in 2024, but an awful lot of the levers that affect their everyday life, including public services and their income tax, is devolved to the Scottish Parliament – so Labour still represents change in the Scottish Parliament election.

“Labour offers the only way to change and replace the SNP in government. We’re the only party that’s capable of beating the SNP in key constituencies across the country.”

Regional MSP and candidate for Rutherglen and Cambuslang Monica Lennon said that people in Scotland are ready for a change – and stressed that Scottish Labour have triumphed against the odds before.

“We’ve seen that with the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election (in 2023), we’ve seen that with the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election last summer, where everyone said Labour can’t win here. We were written off by the media, by the bookies, by the pundits – and the SNP ran a campaign of fear, saying only the SNP can defeat Reform. Reform came third, and we won that by-election – and I’ve now got the privilege of working really close with Davy Russell in parliament.”

Housing, cost of living and the state of public services key issues among voters

What are the key issues coming up on the doorstep ahead of the election? For Kayleigh Quinn, Labour’s candidate for Eastwood, housing is increasingly raised.

“It’s difficult for first-time buyers, it’s difficult for young people, it’s difficult for families – especially because you’re probably paying out the same in your mortgage as what you are paying for your childcare costs, if not more.

“Forty percent of the constituency is families, so childcare comes up a lot, as well as the cost of living.

“As a local mum myself, I think people relate a lot. They feel like they’ve got a candidate who understands what they’re going through just now, because I have kids the same age as theirs and we’ll go through the same stuff.”

Anger around the state of the nation’s public services, particularly the NHS, is also a recurring theme in conversations with voters, according to other candidates I spoke to.

Lennon spoke of the “failure” of the SNP government, from GP services stretched to breaking point, to police stations closing down and broken promises on closing the attainment gap and universal free breakfast for schoolchildren.

“People look around and they see failure – they say the SNP can’t even deliver two ferries on time. We’ve got fake ferries with painted-on windows. These are symbols of the SNP.”

READ MORE: ‘Labour needs to rediscover its own authentic populism’

Eunis Jassemi, standing as the Labour candidate in Glasgow Anniesland, also highlighted a crisis at the £1 billion Queen Elizabeth University Hospital based in the city – which opened in 2015 despite warnings around the water supply. A number of deaths and infections linked to water and ventilation systems have taken place at the hospital since, with its cancer ward partially closed due to mould.

Jassemi said: “For me, the NHS and GPs are by far the biggest contenders right now. I’ve seen a reduction of GP practices by 20 percent since 2010 – so you’re bringing additional pressures to the current GP practices, or people are going to A&E at the Queen Elizabeth – which as you will be aware of the crisis there is right now at the Queen Elizabeth.

“Our message about rebuilding the NHS, but also about fixing the GP crisis as well, is cutting through.”

No love for the SNP on the doorstep in Drumchapel

I saw the concern Jassemi reflected when I joined him on a canvassing session towards the edge of the constituency in Drumchapel. Several voters expressed their frustration at the state of the health service and public services more broadly, and were receptive to Scottish Labour’s policy on bringing back the family doctor.

As we went from door to door, there was no love for the SNP, while there remained residual support for Labour – despite the opinion polls.

However, it was also evident that some of those who had fallen out of love with the SNP were switching to the Green Party.

Jassemi said that the Greens had come up “a little bit” among voters he has spoken to – although they are not standing a candidate in his constituency.

We came across one gentleman who said that, having voted for Labour for 40 years, he was wavering at the prospect of giving them his support in May. While not attracted to any of the other parties, and being staunchly opposed to the SNP, he expressed frustration around Keir Starmer and the government in Westminster.

READ MORE: ‘Can Labour turn the green tide back to red’

‘Frustration with the UK government’

That frustration is shared among the candidates I spoke to, especially as the conference took place just hours after Labour’s bruising defeat in the Gorton and Denton by-election south of the border.

Jassemi told me: “There is a frustration with the UK government – we have made mistakes over the past 18 months, but we’ve got a lot of good things that we have done as well, that we’re just not shouting enough about.”

Lennon was more damning, having already joined Anas Sarwar in his call for Keir Starmer to resign as party leader and Prime Minister.

“As Anas said, there have been too many misjudgements, too many missteps and people who voted for change are not seeing the pace of change being delivered.

“No one takes pleasure in making these public statements. People have tried very hard in private over the last 18 months to persuade the Prime Minister to change course and lots of advisors have been blamed, but ultimately Keir Starmer, if he is a man of principle and integrity – he has to take responsibility.

“It is a great privilege to lead the Labour Party at any level, but you have to know when it’s time to step back and say ‘I’ve done all that I can do’.”

‘When you scrutinise Reform’s policies, people do start to think again’

The challenge of Reform UK is also presenting itself in Scotland, with the party vying with Labour for second in the opinion polls.

Jassemi said that he has sought to focus minds among those contemplating backing Reform by highlighting what their MPs have said in Westminster and what their vision for the nation would look like in practice.

“They’ve been clear about their desire to reduce workers’ rights right across the country – and that does actually make people pause and actually think about whether they should actually vote for Reform.

“I don’t doubt that there is a frustration out there with the Scottish government and the UK government, and they are looking for a party where they can vent their anger, but actually I think when you scrutinise Reform’s policies, people do start to think again.”

‘Fight of our lives’

With around eight weeks until election day, Lennon said Scottish Labour is ready for the “fight of our lives” and that the choice for voters is clear between “another five years of chaos under the SNP, or do they want a new direction with a new First Minister – and the man for that job is Anas Sarwar”.

She said: “We’ve got brilliant candidates who are completely committed to their communities, in touch with their communities, unlike the SNP – who’ve been in power for 19 years and they have taken the people of Scotland for granted.

“We will work tirelessly to get Labour gains up and down the country.”

READ MORE: ‘Biggest investment programme in our history’: Welsh Labour commit to NHS revamp if successful in Senedd elections

‘Think about the people who have lost hope’

With Scotland battered by weeks of bad weather recently, what keeps Scottish Labour’s candidates motivated to knock on doors and sell the party’s message of change?

Higgins said: “I’m a first-time candidate and I’m standing for the seat I grew up in, in my hometown, so it’s really an honour to be the Labour candidate – and sometimes it’s a case of knocking on doors and someone recognising you and going ‘I played five-a-side with you ten years ago’ or ‘your brother was my best man’.”

For Lennon, she remembers all the different people she is fighting for whenever she is having a bad day.

“I would say to my fellow candidates, remember the social care worker who is going out to care for vulnerable people in Scotland, who’s underpaid and undervalued.

“Think about the teachers who are experiencing violence, the parents not getting support for their children with additional needs.

“Think about the people who have lost hope – because if we think we’re having a bad day, there’s people out there who are having a horrific time right now under the SNP, and that’s who we are fighting for.

“They need us to be strong and to be on their side and not to get caught up in factionalism – but to think about the opportunity to change Scotland for good on May 7.

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