Labour members overwhelmingly pessimistic about May elections – poll

Labour members are overwhelmingly pessimistic about the party’s electoral prospects next month, exclusive polling for LabourList reveals.

The poll, conducted by Survation, found that 91 percent of members were pessimistic about Labour’s chances at local elections in England on May 7, with more than half (59 percent) saying they are very pessimistic. Only four percent of members said they felt optimistic about the elections.

Four in five members (83 percent) expressed pessimism about how Welsh Labour will perform at the Senedd election, compared to just five percent who feel optimistic.

For the Scottish Parliament election, just shy of three-quarters (74 percent) are downbeat about Scottish Labour’s chances in the Holyrood election, while eight percent are optimistic.

It comes as forecasts predict Labour could lose close to 2,000 councillors across England next month, with Welsh Labour expected to place third in the Senedd election and Scottish Labour predicted to lose seats in Holyrood.

Emma Burnell, editor of LabourList, said: “Labour members are clearly preparing themselves for the worst in the elections next week. Polling is looking extremely difficult in a wide range of places across the UK and so they may be right to do so.

“For the sake of the residents of Scotland and Wales as well as those who rely on local government across England – all of whom need their devolved and local services delivered with Labour values in mind – we can only hope they are pleasantly surprised.”

The poll is the latest in a series of regular polls LabourList is publishing in partnership with leading pollsters Survation, a member of the British Polling Council and a Market Research Society Partner.

Survation surveyed 1,190 readers of LabourList, the leading dedicated newsletter and news and comment website for Labour supporters, who also said they were Labour Party members between April 17 and 22.

Data was weighted to the profile of party members by age, sex, region, 2020 leadership vote and 2025 deputy leadership vote. Targets for weighting were drawn from the British Election Study and the results of the leadership and deputy elections.

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