Ben Cooper column: ‘Uniting Labour’s progressive return voters with those yet to come back’

Last week, Labour took the lead in an opinion poll for the first time in 16 months. Twice as many people thought the Prime Minister was doing a good job than a bad one, according to the same poll from More in Common. Other opinion polls have shown similar results. Just months after the devastating local election results, the public appear to be giving Labour a hearing once again.

Of course, we are just two full weeks into Andy Burnham’s premiership. But there are signs that progressive voters are already returning to Labour.

The proportion of Labour 2024 voters who  say they back the Green Party after Burnham became PM has dramatically reduced, compared to May 2026. More in Common reported it was just 4 per cent of Labour 2024 voters, compared to 13 per cent in the middle of May. This has helped Labour improve its polling numbers, close the gap with Reform, and win the Greater Manchester by-election.

But bringing together just progressive voters is unlikely to win a majority, even if the right remains split between the Conservatives, Reform and Restore. In many marginal seats that Labour currently hold, there are just not enough progressive voters to win.

READ MORE:The ‘Burnham bounce’

Labour still needs to persuade those who currently back right-wing parties to vote Labour, particularly those who support Reform. Since the local elections, this challenge has been neglected by some commentators – even dismissed as unimportant. And with Reform losing vote share in recent weeks, it may be tempting to think that Labour can sit back and reap the rewards.

But Labour cannot be complacent. Persuading some of those who currently back right-wing parties is critical to Labour’s chances of re-election with a majority. Most Labour MPs in 2029 will be in a straight fight with a right-wing candidate, currently expected to be Reform. That electoral reality means shifting a voter from Reform to Labour will count for double in a first-past-the-post constituency election – because Labour gains one vote, while the main opposition loses one. And any united right-wing bloc before the next election would have fewer voters to rely on to defeat Labour.

The real question for Labour is not whether the party needs to appeal to those currently backing Reform or the Conservatives, but which of them might be tempted and how to persuade them without losing the rest of the coalition. These voters are not a homogenous bloc. Many of them will never back Labour, and many attempts to persuade them will put off progressive voters. The government needs to be targeted in who it appeals to and how, in order to create a new winning electoral coalition for 2029.

One potential group is voters who voted Labour in 2024 but who now back Reform or the Conservatives. According to More in Common last week around 10 per cent of Labour’s 2024 coalition is now intending to vote Reform, with another 7 per cent backing the Conservatives. The size of this switching has barely budged since the local elections, when polling found 13 per cent backed Reform and 5 per cent supported the Conservatives. Just two years ago, these people voted for Labour – and they can be persuaded to vote for the party again.

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To do so, the party needs to show that it is on the side of voters and that broken Britain can be repaired. People are sceptical that things can get better, but people must be able to associate Labour with real improvements in their own lives and their local community. And this is similar to what progressive voters want – uniting Labour’s voting bloc.

But for Reform voters, this will be tricker than with other groups. They are most likely to believe that Britain is a zero-sum country, where others are benefiting at the expense of ordinary people like themselves. Ending this perception must be a priority for Labour. It requires policy to shift the balance of power towards ordinary people, and create an economy that values contribution as well as those who play by the rules.

Labour also needs to address people’s concerns on migration. Indeed, this is the biggest reason why people have switched from Labour to Reform. There is little possibility of bringing people back to our party, without tackling small boats and restoring control over the migration system. But Labour should be confident these concerns can be addressed in a way that stays true to our values as a party – and unites all parts of our electoral coalition.

Now the Prime Minister has started to bring progressive voters back to Labour, the priority has to be to unite them with those who voted Labour in the past but now favour right-wing parties. Without them, Labour will struggle to secure re-election.

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