No pressure, Ed, but the fate of the world is in your hands

By Tim Nicholls / @tim_nicholls

Overstating the size of the task, perhaps? I’m not so sure. The world is far from environmental consensus, opposing domestic and international interests make sure of that. Recent attacks on the science behind climate change have dented public support. And several among our world’s leaders are shamelessly playing the expectations games.

Not so Ed Miliband. He remains insistent and optimistic that there will, and must, be a binding global climate deal that comes out of a process that is begun in Copenhagen, if it cannot be achieved at the summit itself.

Even the Obama camp, the beacon of progress that we on the left deeply respect, has been downplaying the chances of success in ways that smell suspiciously of playing politics with the issue. He has been both sceptical and optimistic over the last fortnight. His domestic plans, whilst welcome, work from greenhouse gas levels from 2005. This is over a decade later than the Kyoto regime and means that the US domestic benchmark is proportionately much higher than Kyoto partners.

The ‘will they, won’t they‘ over whether heads of governments would attend in person has done even more to create and fan uncertainty and mixed expectations. Over the last few days, things seem to have become more optimistic again, but as we get closer to the summit another plunge into scepticism could throw the talks into disarray.

The negotiations in Bali aired out some particularly tricky differences of opinion, reducing one negotiator to tears at one point. But this negotiating round has to be more balanced. This is where the UK and Ed Miliband need to step in.

Although snipes are directed at him domestically, accusing him of naivety and, for lack of a better phrase, geekishness, on the international plane Miliband is respected. The same is true of the UK, partially thanks to John Prescott’s work at Kyoto: the legacy of environmental progress is most certainly Labour’s to own. When we passed the Climate Change Act, I was in Canada studying international environmental regimes. The left, across North America (yet to be swept up in Obama-mania) went crazy: especially when contrasted with Canada’s announcement that it would simply stop trying to reach its Kyoto goals, the UK became the world’s leader on climate change action.

The Government now needs to harness this reputation and use it to global advantage in Copenhagen. This round of negotiations is going to have to view climate change through a wider lens, including international development (as Douglas Alexander argued) and trade (as I have previously argued).

This requires someone with a comprehensive appreciation of the issues, and it is quite clear from his many speeches that Miliband has this. His challenge now is to use this vision and his reputation to get the rest of the world on board.

There is a lot working in the world’s favour to reach a deal: new environmentally conscious leaders in the US and Australia (though we are left with Harper in Canada); the public recognition of the risks of doing nothing as our weather becomes more aggressive; and oil prices have spiked, giving us a hint of the economic pain that depleted stocks will cause in the future. The UK has been consistent in its approach and its (and Ed’s) role will be pivotal.

Am I, myself, guilty of playing the expectations game here? Maybe. I’m raising the bar: it’s up to the Government to clear it.

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