Local election results 2024: BBC projected national share puts Labour on 34%

The BBC has unveiled its projected national vote share based on this year’s local elections, putting Labour on 34% – nine points up on the Tories, but one point down on its estimated share in the last two sets of elections.

The BBC’s projected national share – which estimates the share of the vote the main parties would have won if voters across Britain had behaved in the same way as those who voted in wards contested by all three main parties in this year’s locals – puts Labour on 34%, the Tories on 25%, the Lib Dems on 17% and others on 24%.

Labour’s projected national share was 35% in both 2022 and 2023. John Curtice told the BBC it looked like both Labour and the Tories “are just a little bit doing less well than they did last time, not least essentially because of some of those strong performances by the Greens, by some of the Independents and also by Reform”.

“It really is for the most part a picture of stasis,” the leading pollster told the broadcaster. “No great dramatic change, with reasons for all parties to ask themselves: ‘Couldn’t we have done better?’ But equally and also, still leaving Labour in pole position.”

The Tories’ projected national share this year equals its lowest ever recorded result, having been estimated to have previously achieved a 25% share in both 1995 and 2013. Similarly to Labour, the Conservatives’ share this year is one point down on last year’s locals.

Projected national share since records began, via Professor Rob Ford and the BBC

Meanwhile, Sky News also announced its provisional national share estimate, which put Labour on 35% and the Tories on 26%. Based on the estimates, the broadcaster projected that a general election would see Labour become the largest party on 294 seats – though 32 seats short of an overall majority.

Labour has maintained a strong and consistent lead over the Conservatives in the national opinion polls, with Politico’s ‘poll of polls‘ – which aggregates data from multiple sources – currently giving the opposition party a 21 percentage point lead over the Tories.

See more coverage of the 2024 local elections here.

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