The BBC has unveiled its projected national vote share based on this year’s local elections, putting Labour on 34% – nine points up on the Tories, but one point down on its estimated share in the last two sets of elections.
The BBC’s projected national share – which estimates the share of the vote the main parties would have won if voters across Britain had behaved in the same way as those who voted in wards contested by all three main parties in this year’s locals – puts Labour on 34%, the Tories on 25%, the Lib Dems on 17% and others on 24%.
Labour’s projected national share was 35% in both 2022 and 2023. John Curtice told the BBC it looked like both Labour and the Tories “are just a little bit doing less well than they did last time, not least essentially because of some of those strong performances by the Greens, by some of the Independents and also by Reform”.
“It really is for the most part a picture of stasis,” the leading pollster told the broadcaster. “No great dramatic change, with reasons for all parties to ask themselves: ‘Couldn’t we have done better?’ But equally and also, still leaving Labour in pole position.”
The Tories’ projected national share this year equals its lowest ever recorded result, having been estimated to have previously achieved a 25% share in both 1995 and 2013. Similarly to Labour, the Conservatives’ share this year is one point down on last year’s locals.
Projected national share since records began, via Professor Rob Ford and the BBC
Meanwhile, Sky News also announced its provisional national share estimate, which put Labour on 35% and the Tories on 26%. Based on the estimates, the broadcaster projected that a general election would see Labour become the largest party on 294 seats – though 32 seats short of an overall majority.
Labour has maintained a strong and consistent lead over the Conservatives in the national opinion polls, with Politico’s ‘poll of polls‘ – which aggregates data from multiple sources – currently giving the opposition party a 21 percentage point lead over the Tories.
See more coverage of the 2024 local elections here.
Local election results 2024: National picture
READ MORE: Live updates on key local election results throughout the night
READ MORE: One ‘Karl Marx’ wins a seat for Starmer’s Labour in north-west
READ MORE: Key local council elections to watch for clues on our general election chances
READ MORE: Interview: Ellie Reeves on where Labour looking for ‘progress’
READ MORE: ‘The key tests for Labour in each region’
READ MORE: What would good 2024 local election results look like for Labour?
READ MORE: Battleground PPCs optimistic’ on their local and general election chances
Local election results 2024: Inside key battleground campaigns
READ MORE: Labour says Tees swing boosts GE chances despite Houchen win
READ MORE: Meet Blackpool South’s new Labour MP after ‘seismic’ landslide
READ MORE: Labour loses Oldham amid ‘Gaza backlash’
READ MORE: Thurrock: Labour calls victory in Leave-voting target seat
READ MORE: Hartlepool: Labour takes control in ‘Red Wall’ town
READ MORE: Tees Valley: Meet Labour candidate vying to oust Ben Houchen
READ MORE: Hartlepool: Inside Labour’s bid to take back control in ‘red wall’ town
READ MORE: North East: ‘Why Jamie Driscoll’s campaign should give Labour pause for thought’
READ MORE: Tom Baldwin: ‘What Blackpool’s deckchairs tell us about its by-election’
READ MORE: Dudley: Where Labour’s local campaign began, and it cannot afford to lose
READ MORE: North Herts: ‘We want to show Labour can demolish the blue wall’
READ MORE: Adur: How a red wave can end 25-year Tory grip on south coast
Share your election updates: If you have any updates big or small on the locals campaign to share that we could be reporting or running comment pieces on, on record or strictly anonymously, contact us at [email protected].
Follow the latest: Sign up to LabourList’s morning email for a briefing on everything Labour, every weekday morning – including analysis of the local elections.
Support our work: Quality journalism is expensive. If you can help sustain our work as the leading specialist Labour media platform through a monthly donation, please become one of our supporters here.
Partner with us: If you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on events or content, email [email protected].
More from LabourList
Kemi Badenoch: Keir Starmer says first Black Westminster leader is ‘proud moment’ for Britain
‘Soaring attacks on staff show a broken prison system. Labour needs a strategy’
West of England mayor: The three aspiring Labour candidates shortlisted