‘Now is the spring of our discontent’

Given that Keir Starmer himself has said it was a mistake to appoint Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, it is hardly surprising that our exclusive polling – done with Survation – finds that 83% of Labour members overwhelmingly feel this has been handled badly.

There are now bigger questions about how Labour members feel about the overall leadership of the Party. While 61% believe that Starmer should not resign specifically over this issue, 46% do believe that Labour should have a change of leadership. That is a very slight lead over the 44% who want Starmer to remain. This 15-point difference shows that it is not just the Mandelson affair that members are unhappy about. There are members calling for a change in leadership who do not feel that it is Mandelson who should trigger this.

Labour members are largely focused on fighting elections across Scotland and Wales, and for councils across England. Our polling suggests that members are extremely pessimistic about the potential outcomes of these elections. Bad results would be painful for Labour members who will have poured their hearts into fighting to get as many Labour councillors elected as possible. More importantly, it would stop Labour being able to deliver for the people we represent. There are good reasons we care about electing Labour politicians, as Haringey’s deputy leader Sarah Williams has eloquently outlined for us.

READ MORE: Labour members overwhelmingly pessimistic about May elections – poll

There are a few questions Number 10 will be asking themselves today.

The most important and immediate is whether Labour can exceed these low expectations. If the results are not as dire as Labour members predict, then it may be that they can keep the leadership chatter post-elections to a minimum.

Even if the results are as bad as members think, it may also be that the fact this is already ‘baked in’ will give the PM some breathing space. The difference between the 91% of members who expect bad results and the 46% who want a change of leadership might be the space in which Starmer can build a case for his remaining.

Certainly, Starmer has come out fighting over the weekend, making it clear he is carrying on. He says there is a ‘vast majority’ of Labour MPs who still support him. LabourList journalists speak to MPs all the time, and we do hear both sides of the story. What the percentages are, though, is unclear.

If Labour does outperform on 7th May – or if Labour members still remain torn over whether a bad result should mean a change at the top – he may get his wish.

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But there is a difference between expecting the worst and experiencing it. MPs who watch their councillor, AM and MSP candidate colleagues suffer defeat in their patches may well find the pressure on them from CLPs and local members becomes overwhelming. Turning that around will be possibly the biggest challenge Starmer has faced as leader. He has been underestimated before and has exceeded expectations – even his own. Whether he can do so again remains to be seen.

We don’t know what will happen on 7th May. We don’t know what will happen immediately afterwards. We do know that members are not happy with things as they are. That so many are still campaigning so hard is an overwhelming testament to the tenacity of Labour’s membership. We at LabourList salute you!

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