Labour has been projected to win a 262-seat majority while the Tories slump to just 72 seats and Reform UK win seven seats, in the first MRP analysis since Nigel Farage announced he would stand for election.
The new analysis from Survation put Labour ahead in 456 seats, the Tories in 72 and the Liberal Democrats in 56. The Scottish National Party was found to be leading in 37 seats, Reform in seven, Plaid Cymru in two and the Greens in one.
The research, conducted on behalf of Best for Britain, was based on more than 42,000 online and telephone interviews, conducted between May 31st and June 13th – with Farage having announced his candidacy in Clacton and return as leader of Reform UK on June 3rd.
READ MORE: ‘If Labour do not offer real change, it will be the radical right that picks up the pieces’
The pollster’s probability-based prediction – which estimated the probability of each party winning each seat and aggregated them to give an idea of how the election would play out – predicted a marginally narrower Labour victory, with the party on 443 seats ahead of the Tories on 83.
Its research suggested that the Tories may hold on to just 13 of the 52 seats in the so-called ‘Blue Wall’, with Labour projected to pick up 20 and the Lib Dems 19. Survation found that half of the 52 seats are currently marginal and likely to be decided by less than 5% of the vote.
In Scotland, Survation said Labour “appears set to regain a significant foothold in Scotland across the central belt” but noted that the SNP’s vote “has a very high floor”, with the party projected to remain the largest in Scotland, though many seats are “on a knife-edge”.
Its analysis put the SNP ahead in 37 of the 57 seats in Scotland and Labour leading in 14, though its probability-based prediction sees Labour picking up more seats on 17 and the SNP taking 34.
READ MORE: Labour receives more donations than Tories in first week of election campaign
A separate poll from Savanta saw the Tories record their lowest-ever vote share with the pollster under Rishi Sunak’s leadership at 21%, with Labour holding a 25-point lead on 46% of the vote.
Savanta’s political research director Chris Hopkins said the findings of the poll – conducted on behalf of The Sunday Telegraph – suggest this election “could be nothing short of electoral extinction for the Conservative Party”.
A third poll from Opinium for The Observer gave Labour a narrower lead of 17 points, however – with the party on 40% of the vote ahead of the Conservatives on 23%. The research suggested that the two parties had collectively lost 7% of the vote to smaller parties in a fortnight.
LabourList has been rounding up the latest polling news in our general election tracker, publishing the results of the main UK pollsters as they are released during the campaign. You can keep up to date with the latest here.
Find out more through our wider 2024 Labour party manifesto coverage so far…
OVERVIEW:
Manifesto launch: Highlights, reaction and analysis as it happened
Full manifesto costs breakdown – and how tax and borrowing fund it
The key manifesto policy priorities in brief
Manifesto NHS and health policies – at a glance
Manifesto housing policy – at a glance
Manifesto Palestine policy – at a glance
Manifesto immigration policies – at a glance
ANALYSIS AND REACTION:
‘The manifesto’s not perfect, but at the launch you could feel change is coming’
IPPR: ‘Labour’s manifesto is more ambitious than the Ming vase strategy suggests’
Socialist Health Association warns Labour under-funding risks NHS ‘decline’
‘The manifesto shows a new centrism, with the state key driving growth’
Fabians: ‘This a substantial core offer, not the limit of Labour ambition’
‘No surprises, but fear not: Labour manifesto is the start, not the end’
‘What GB energy will do and why we desperately need it’
‘Labour’s health policies show a little-noticed radicalism’
GMB calls manifesto ‘vision of hope’ but Unite says ‘not enough’
IFS: Manifesto doesn’t raise enough cash to fund ‘genuine change’
Watch as Starmer heckled by protestor with ‘youth deserve better’ banner
POLICY NEWS:
Labour vows to protect green belt despite housebuilding drive
Manifesto commits to Brexit and being ‘confident’ outside EU
Labour to legislate on New Deal within 100 days – key policies breakdown
Labour to give 16-year-olds right to vote
Starmer says ‘manifesto for wealth creation’ will kickstart growth
Read more of our 2024 general election coverage here.
If you have anything to share that we should be looking into or publishing about this or any other topic involving Labour or about the election, on record or strictly anonymously, contact us at [email protected].
Sign up to LabourList’s morning email for a briefing everything Labour, every weekday morning.
If you can help sustain our work too through a monthly donation, become one of our supporters here.
And if you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on sponsored events or content, email [email protected].
More from LabourList
Starmer says he ‘wouldn’t jump queue’ for NHS treatment by going private
IFS: Starmer and Sunak must pick cuts, debt or tax hikes in ‘trilemma’
How Labour plans to overhaul and ‘simplify’ gender transition process