‘Labour has lost in Runcorn – here are the eight things the party should do now’

1. Don’t panic

2. Don’t over-react

Fixating on Reform’s agenda – immigration, scrapping net zero, and attacking woke culture – risks alienating middle-class & progressive voters who backed Labour in 2024. Government must respond to Reform proportionately, balancing their concerns with a wider strategy to maintain its base & its mandate.

3. Labour needs to prosecute the political argument

Labour MPs’ anxiety is compounded by uncertainty about No.10’s political strategy. It’s good that this Labour government is not as obsessed with spin as the last one but it must make the political case for its decisions. Instead of explanation, an argument needs to be prosecuted: for every tough decision, a rationale that ties intellectually back to the government’s overall objectives on the long term goals.

The Winter Fuel Payment decision hurt Labour in Runcorn. The damage was not directly a retail consequence of those who lost WFP. The real problem was that Labour failed to argue its case. Means-testing WFP is defensible, especially when the rise in take-up of Pension Credit shifted support from wealthy to poorest. But the argument was not prosecuted effectively. The policy did not tie into the bigger picture. That failure in turn said something about the government’s values and purpose, or lack thereof.

Even if No.10 is reluctant to articulate a grand political strategy or – wisely – refuses to play an old-fashioned ‘New Labour’ game of media briefing, it must still forcefully make the intellectual arguments for its big policy decisions. The whole Cabinet must do the “why” behind tough reforms, not just the “how”.

READ MORE: Council by council Labour gains and losses – and its position in each mayor race

4. Reject Blue Labour’s false promises

Blue Labour offers a compelling diagnosis: Britain’s social contract is fraying due to deindustrialization, immigration, and a disconnected state. However, its remedies are unconvincing.

At best, they are an imitation of Boris Johnson’s approach to capturing Red Wall seats. At worst, they blithely mimic Reform. 

When it comes to the economy, Blue Labour calls for scrapping the fiscal rules in order ‘to invest in infrastructure and the public realm’. Abandoning fiscal rules risks repeating Liz Truss’s economic chaos. Labour should not consider playing fast and loose with the bond markets. Nor does Labour need to scrap the fiscal rules to invest in infrastructure.

On immigration, Blue Labour exaggerates. Claiming that immigration “radically” drives demand for housing overstates reality; housing shortages and economic demand are far larger culprits. Labour must acknowledge immigration’s role in adding housing pressure, particularly in rentals, but avoid simplistic narratives. Even a zero-immigration policy wouldn’t solve our housing crisis. Mimicking Reform’s exaggeration alienates moderate voters. It is also not a responsible approach for a governing party.

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5. Stay resolute on long-term goals

People voted for a “decade of renewal”: improve the NHS, build our way out of the housing crisis, and get growth. These goals are hard and will take 10 years but Labour must not sacrifice its long-term vision for the mirage of short-term gains. Credibility lies in siding with the future, not the past.

This does not mean intransigence on the tactics for achieving those goals. For example, government should address lower-income households’ fears of bearing disproportionate costs but that does not equate to abandoning the headline goals of GB Energy or net zero. 

6. Prioritise social mobility, not nostalgia

A fixation on reindustrialization from Blue Labour and Reform romanticizes a 1970s working class that no longer exists. The hollowing out of working class, industrial jobs is not solely attributable to immigration and globalisation.

The reality is more complex: automation, minimum wage laws, and the rise of skilled labour have all eroded low skill jobs. If Labour wants to engage low- and no-skill voters, they should focus on creating pay, training and development opportunities for those who work in social care and retail in 2025, not factories and pits in 1975.

The weakness in Farage’s pitch to voters – as he posed on eve of election in a Morris Minor that was last made in Britain in 1970 – is that that no matter how hard he campaigns on nostalgia, he cannot bring back the past. Equipping low- and no-skill workers for the 2030s, not the 1970s, is the path to social mobility.

READ MORE: ‘Results so far say one thing: voters think change isn’t coming fast enough’

7. Give the middle class a stake in growth

Right now middle Britain feels disconnected from Labour’s economic agenda and lacks confidence in its success. 

Labour must link GDP growth to tangible benefits for these middle- and lower-income households. In the same way that the Right to Buy or the ‘Tell Sid’ privatisation of British Gas convinced voters in the 1980s that Margaret Thatcher’s economic policy of privatisation would help them, Labour’s intellectual focus should be on identifying and implementing policies that will give the middle class a stronger sense of ownership in Labour’s growth mission. 

8. Rebuild trust through optimism

The centre-ground challenge hasn’t arrived suddenly. There has been a slow erosion of confidence in progressivism, driven by the worsening social and economic challenges that lower- and middle-income voters have faced over more than a decade of low or no growth.

The social contract – the promise that if you worked hard and played by the rules, then you could achieve a life for your family that was at least as comfortable, secure and rich as your parents did for you – feels broken for many. Compared to their parents, those under 55 feel worse off, more insecure at work, and are less likely to own a home. It is obvious to everyone that these are systemic challenges. What voters want from politicians – and what they thought they were voting for with Labour at the last election – is the competence and determination to turn these problems around.  

This is why – despite taking a kicking from Reform in these elections – Labour should not abandon its ‘decade of renewal’. As it does so, Labour should champion policies that make growth inclusive, fostering optimism over nostalgia. Mimicking Reform or Blue Labour is a trap; Labour’s path to a second term lies in clarity, pragmatism, and hope.

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Read more on the 2025 local elections:

Results on the day

Analysis and what to expect

• Runcorn blame game begins – why did Labour lose?
• ‘Labour has lost in Runcorn – here are the eight things the party should do now‘
• MPs who could lose their seat on Runcorn by-election swing to Reform
• ‘Results so far say one thing: voters think change isn’t coming fast enough’
• Three ways to measure Labour’s success tonight
• Expert predicts ‘bad night’ with no net Labour gains
• ‘Uxbridgitis: If election results are grim, let’s not learn the wrong lessons again’
• Where’s Keir? PM barely features in Labour party election broadcasts for the locals
• The meme elections: Labour’s social media pivot to take fight to Farage

LabourList’s on-the-ground reports from the campaign

• Hull and East Yorkshire: Labour candidate spars with Reform’s boxing star in UK’s most disillusioned city
• Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Nik Johnson on why he’s standing down and Anna Smith on knife-edge Labour-Tory fight to replace him
• West of England: Tory and Green threats, Dan Norris and low voter awareness
• Lancashire: Long shadow of Gaza looms over key battleground

Inside the Runcorn campaign

• Mood on the doorstep: Labour’s last push for Tory voters to keep out Reform
• At least 150 Labour MPs visit – but Keir Starmer ain’t one
• Karen Shore interview: Labour candidate on Reform, the NHS and closing asylum hotels
• Runcorn poll: One in ten Labour voters expected to back Reform

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